Leeds vs Everton – 1 Jan 2027

Premier League Gameweek 19 Fri, Jan 1 · 20:00 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire

Leeds 7th · 10 pts · 7 played DWDLD

VS— Compare

Everton 8th · 10 pts · 7 played DDWDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel104 kmRest days3 · 3Matches / 14d3 · 3

Real contextStrength only

Leeds—%

Draw—%

Everton—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)

Forecast from 17 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend Leeds 71% Both teams scored Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Leeds

Everton

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

73 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

69 AttackIn forecast 61

77 DefenceIn forecast 66

64 Form indexContext 50

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Leeds

Everton

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14

0.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.37

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

86% Scored inContext 71%

29% Clean sheetsContext 43%

12.00 ShotsContext 14.43

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

33% On target shareContext 35%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.83

65% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.43 OffsidesContext 2.29

14.00 Shots allowedContext 13.71

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.29

5.17 BlocksContext 5.00

3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

86% Save rateContext 70%

47% PossessionIn forecast 47%

385 PassesContext 433

302 Accurate passesContext 361

78% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.98

12.71 FoulsContext 7.43

11.86 Fouls sufferedContext 13.29

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.71

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

80% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.50 ShotsContext 13.40

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

31% On target shareContext 34%

7.33 Shots in the boxContext 9.89

62% Box shareContext 70%

10% ConversionContext 8%

2.40 OffsidesContext 2.25

14.90 Shots allowedContext 14.40

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

4.89 BlocksContext 5.44

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

77% Save rateContext 70%

46% PossessionIn forecast 47%

376 PassesContext 414

292 Accurate passesContext 342

78% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.88

11.90 FoulsContext 9.70

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Leeds DWDLD

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km456 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected

D18 OctH · Manchester United1–11.6 xPts
L10 OctA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
D20 SepH · Crystal Palace0–01.9 xPts
W14 SepH · Newcastle4–11.7 xPts
D5 SepA · Brighton1–10.9 xPts

Everton DDWDL

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel104 km264 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

Form 50 · 6 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected

L17 OctH · Chelsea0–21.5 xPts
D11 OctA · Hull City2–21.7 xPts
W19 SepH · Ipswich1–02.0 xPts
D12 SepA · Tottenham0–01.3 xPts
D6 SepH · Manchester United2–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Leeds	Everton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Moderate · 23
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3Premier League 2026-2027, 29 Dec	3Premier League 2026-2027, 29 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	104 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	456 km	264 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	2 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	5	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Leeds Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Manchester United (H) 1–1, 18 Oct

1J. Trafford(G)

5T. Muharemović 30N. Elvedi 24J. Justin

3G. Gudmundsson 22A. Tanaka 4E. Ampadu 2J. Bogle

19N. Okafor 18A. Stach

9D. Calvert-Lewin

Everton Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Chelsea (H) 0–2, 17 Oct

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 4J. Branthwaite 6J. Tarkowski 2A. Maitland-Niles

37J. Garner 45H. Armstrong

10J. Grealish 8K. Dewsbury-Hall 34M. Röhl

11T. Barry

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Leeds Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Everton Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Leeds · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-3-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.75

Everton · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-3-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Leeds	Everton
Manchester United	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 H
Crystal Palace	D 0–0 H	W 2–0 H
Points	2 of 6 · 1.00 per game	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Leeds wins3 draws3 Everton wins

Goals per game0.88 – 1.25 Over 2.538% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%

26 Jan 2026Everton1–1Leeds
18 Aug 2025Leeds1–0Everton
18 Feb 2023Everton1–0Leeds
30 Aug 2022Leeds1–1Everton
12 Feb 2022Everton3–0Leeds
21 Aug 2021Leeds2–2Everton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Leeds	Everton
Scored per game	1.29	1.14
Conceded per game	0.86	1.00
Match goals	2.14	2.14
Over 1.5	71%	71%
Over 2.5	29%	29%
Over 3.5	14%	29%
Both teams scored	71%	43%
Clean sheets	29%	43%
Failed to score	14%	29%
Games	7	7

	Leeds	Everton
Scored per game	1.10	1.10
Conceded per game	1.00	1.30
Match goals	2.10	2.40
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	30%	40%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	50%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Leeds	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.33
Corners conceded	4.14	6.00
Match total	8.14	11.33	9.49
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	67% 4/6
Cards
Cards	1.86	1.71
Opponent cards	2.43	2.29
Match total	4.29	4.00	4.17
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7

	Leeds	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	5.78
Corners conceded	5.70	5.56
Match total	9.80	11.34	9.49
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.90
Opponent cards	2.00	1.90
Match total	3.80	3.80	4.17
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.