Sunderland vs Tottenham – 12 Apr 2026

Premier League Gameweek 32 Sun, Apr 12 · 14:00 Stadium of Light, Sunderland

Sunderland 12th · 43 pts · 31 played LDWLW

1–0Full time

Tottenham 18th · 30 pts · 31 played LLLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sunderland were slight favourites.

Tottenham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 55). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sunderland. Sunderland had 21 days of rest, Tottenham 20.9 and had to travel 387 km.

Away travel387 kmRest days21 · 20.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Sunderland46%

Draw25%

Tottenham29%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.31

Sunderland40%

Draw27%

Tottenham33%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.27

Sunderland46%

Draw25%

Tottenham29%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.29

Sunderland39%

Draw25%

Tottenham36%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.47

Sunderland46%

Draw25%

Tottenham29%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.26

Over 2.5 58% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sunderland)

No weather data yet

RefereeRobert Jones

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 139

Team strength

Sunderland

Tottenham

55 L90 StrengthIn forecast 61

57 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

62 AttackIn forecast 56

59 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sunderland

Attack—

Defense risk—

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sunderland

Tottenham

1.03 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

1.16 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.61

0.98 xGVia Att/Def 1.06

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.23

65% Scored inContext 81%

29% Clean sheetsContext 23%

9.87 ShotsContext 11.16

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.81

33% On target shareContext 34%

7.37 Shots in the boxContext 7.77

70% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.81

14.68 Shots allowedContext 12.84

4.47 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.35

4.71 BlocksContext 3.57

3.28 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.96

72% Save rateContext 65%

44% PossessionIn forecast 50%

367 PassesContext 411

289 Accurate passesContext 333

79% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.82

10.39 FoulsContext 11.65

10.84 Fouls sufferedContext 9.77

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.45

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.60

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.21

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.97

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

70% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.40 ShotsContext 11.90

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

36% On target shareContext 38%

7.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

69% Box shareContext 64%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.13

14.20 Shots allowedContext 16.00

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70

5.30 BlocksContext 5.10

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

61% Save rateContext 56%

46% PossessionIn forecast 44%

368 PassesContext 370

288 Accurate passesContext 293

78% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.71

11.50 FoulsContext 13.90

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sunderland

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Tottenham

Rest20.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel387 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sunderland	Tottenham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	21Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Mar	20.9Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	387 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sunderland Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22R. Roefs(G)

17Reinildo 15O. Alderete 13L. O'Nien 20N. Mukiele

27N. Sadiki 34G. Xhaka

28E. Le Fée 19M. Diarra 11C. Rigg

9B. Brobbey

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31A. Kinský(G)

13I. Udogie 37M. van de Ven 17C. Romero 23Pedro Porro

22C. Gallagher 14A. Gray

9Richarlison 15L. Bergvall 39R. Kolo Muani

19D. Solanke

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sunderland Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Tottenham Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sunderland+0.3 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Tottenham+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Sunderland · Home 1.73points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 7-5-3
Scored: 1.47
Conceded: 0.93

Tottenham · Away 1.33points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 5-5-5
Scored: 1.47
Conceded: 1.47

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Sunderland	Tottenham
Newcastle	W 2–1 AW 1–0 H	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A
Brighton	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A	D 2–2 A
Leeds	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H	W 2–1 A
Bournemouth	D 1–1 AW 3–2 H	L 2–3 AL 0–1 H
Fulham	L 1–3 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Liverpool	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H
Arsenal	L 0–3 AD 2–2 H	L 1–4 HL 1–4 A
Burnley	W 3–0 HL 0–2 A	D 2–2 AW 3–0 H
West Ham	L 1–3 AW 3–0 H	L 1–2 HW 3–0 A
Crystal Palace	W 2–1 HD 0–0 A	L 1–3 HW 1–0 A
Brentford	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H
Manchester City	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A	D 2–2 HW 2–0 A
Everton	D 1–1 H	W 3–0 A
Chelsea	W 2–1 A	L 0–1 H
Wolves	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 H
Manchester United	L 0–2 A	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
Nottingham Forest	W 1–0 A	L 0–3 HL 0–3 A
Aston Villa	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 H
Points	42 of 90 · 1.40 per game	29 of 90 · 0.97 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Sunderland wins1 draws0 Tottenham wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

4 Jan 2026Tottenham1–1Sunderland

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sunderland	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.03	1.29
Conceded per game	1.16	1.61
Match goals	2.19	2.90	3.03
Over 1.5	71%	87%
Over 2.5	42%	68%	58%
Over 3.5	13%	29%
Both teams scored	45%	61%	61%
Clean sheets	29%	23%
Failed to score	35%	19%
Games	31	31

	Sunderland	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.00
Conceded per game	1.40	2.30
Match goals	2.50	3.30	3.03
Over 1.5	70%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	80%	58%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	80%	61%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sunderland	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	3.58	5.55
Corners conceded	5.19	4.79
Match total	8.77	10.34	10.05
Over 8.5	55% 17/31	59% 17/29
Over 9.5	48% 15/31	52% 15/29
Over 10.5	32% 10/31	45% 13/29
Cards
Cards	2.16	2.58
Opponent cards	1.77	1.77
Match total	3.93	4.35	3.90
Over 3.5	52% 16/31	65% 20/31
Over 4.5	42% 13/31	55% 17/31

	Sunderland	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	5.11
Corners conceded	5.70	5.11
Match total	9.20	10.22	10.05
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.90
Opponent cards	1.90	1.70
Match total	4.30	4.60	3.90
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robert Jones 139 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.03league 3.76

Red cards0.10league 0.12

Cards 5+42%league 39%

Fouls22.7league 21.4

Penalties0.24league 0.22

Home wins45%league 42%

Sunderland5 with this referee

Record3-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.4 Pens for · against0 · 1

W17 Jan 26H · Crystal Palace2–13
W18 Oct 25H · Wolves2–00
W16 Aug 25H · West Ham3–00
D8 Feb 25H · Watford2–25
L19 Jan 24H · Hull City0–12

Tottenham12 with this referee

Record3-3-6 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.4 Pens for · against1 · 3

D1 Feb 26H · Manchester City2–23
W6 Dec 25H · Brentford2–03
L25 May 25H · Brighton1–43
L26 Jan 25H · Leicester1–21
L1 Sep 24A · Newcastle1–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.