Sunderland vs West Ham – 16 Aug 2025

Premier League Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 16 · 15:00 Stadium of Light, Sunderland

Sunderland

3–0Full time

West Ham

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

West Ham were slight favourites.

West Ham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 29). Sunderland had ? days of rest, West Ham ? and had to travel 387 km.

Away travel387 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Sunderland27%

Draw25%

West Ham47%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.66

Sunderland27%

Draw26%

West Ham47%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.57

Sunderland27%

Draw25%

West Ham48%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.68

Sunderland21%

Draw24%

West Ham55%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.86

Sunderland27%

Draw26%

West Ham47%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.56

Over 2.5 55% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sunderland)

No weather data yet

RefereeRobert Jones

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 120

Team strength

Sunderland

West Ham

29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 58

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 64

62 AttackIn forecast 68

59 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sunderland

Attack—

Defense risk—

West Ham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sunderland

West Ham

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.83 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

-0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.33

40% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.10 ShotsContext 10.80

2.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

25% On target shareContext 34%

6.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

60% Box shareContext 76%

4% ConversionContext 13%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.57

13.30 Shots allowedContext 12.80

3.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

4.40 BlocksContext 3.89

2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

62% Save rateContext 74%

50% PossessionIn forecast 53%

415 PassesContext 480

338 Accurate passesContext 407

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.98

11.50 FoulsContext 11.80

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sunderland

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

West Ham

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel387 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sunderland	West Ham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	387 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sunderland Confirmed XI

4-3-3

22R. Roefs(G)

17Reinildo 23J. Seelt 5D. Ballard 32T. Hume

27N. Sadiki 34G. Xhaka 19M. Diarra

24S. Adingra 12Eliezer Mayenda 7C. Talbi

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

West Ham Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

1M. Hermansen(G)

5N. Aguerd 3M. Kilman 25J. Todibo

12E. Diouf 24G. Rodríguez 8J. Ward-Prowse 29A. Wan-Bissaka

10Lucas Paquetá

11N. Füllkrug 20J. Bowen

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sunderland Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

West Ham Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sunderland+0.0 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
West Ham-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Sunderland · Home No home games yet this season.

West Ham · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Sunderland	West Ham	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.87
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	55%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Sunderland	West Ham	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.87
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	55%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sunderland	West Ham	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	11.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Sunderland	West Ham	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	3.44
Corners conceded	3.10	6.11
Match total	8.80	9.55	11.00
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.10
Opponent cards	2.20	1.50
Match total	4.60	3.60	3.00
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robert Jones 120 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 2.50

Red cards0.12league 0.50

Cards 5+42%league 0%

Fouls23.0league 20.5

Penalties0.25league 0.00

Home wins44%league 50%

Sunderland2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.3.5 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

D8 Feb 25H · Watford2–25
L19 Jan 24H · Hull City0–12

West Ham6 with this referee

Record3-1-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.2 Pens for · against1 · 2

D21 Dec 24H · Brighton1–12
W24 Aug 24A · Crystal Palace2–01
L30 Mar 24A · Newcastle3–41
L14 Aug 22A · Nottingham Forest0–11
W8 May 22A · Norwich4–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.