SV Elversberg
Attack+16%
Defense risk+3%
Our take
It was too close to call.
FC Augsburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 40). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FC Augsburg. SV Elversberg were without J. Gyamerah and F. Onyeka. FC Augsburg were without A. Claude-Maurice and N. Banks. SV Elversberg had 7 days of rest, FC Augsburg 7 and had to travel 295 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel295 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
SV Elversberg39%
Draw23%
FC Augsburg38%
SV Elversberg37%
Draw27%
FC Augsburg36%
SV Elversberg39%
Draw23%
FC Augsburg38%
SV Elversberg31%
Draw23%
FC Augsburg46%
SV Elversberg38%
Draw23%
FC Augsburg38%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 70%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Spiesen-Elversberg)
12°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 14 km/h
- Humidity 71%
Referee · GermanyFlorian Exner
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 31
Team strength
SV Elversberg
FC Augsburg
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
42
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
44
AttackIn forecast
72
37
DefenceIn forecast
23
64
Form indexContext
69
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Augsburg
Attack+9%
Defense risk−21%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
SV ElversbergFC Augsburg
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.91
1.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.96
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.69
60%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.60
ShotsContext
13.60
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.80
42%
On target shareContext
50%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
69%
Box shareContext
69%
17%
ConversionContext
19%
3.25
OffsidesContext
1.67
21.20
Shots allowedContext
22.40
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.80
8.20
BlocksContext
6.00
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.80
58%
Save rateContext
74%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
394
PassesContext
355
314
Accurate passesContext
271
80%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.13
10.80
FoulsContext
9.00
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.25
+0.96
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.80
ShotsContext
13.50
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
41%
On target shareContext
44%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
63%
Box shareContext
69%
21%
ConversionContext
16%
2.57
OffsidesContext
1.86
15.20
Shots allowedContext
20.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.90
5.33
BlocksContext
5.80
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.20
61%
Save rateContext
75%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
391
PassesContext
337
315
Accurate passesContext
259
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.03
10.70
FoulsContext
8.60
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SV Elversberg
WWLDL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,132 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 7 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · +2.0 vs expected
FC Augsburg
WWDLD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel295 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 69 · 8 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SV Elversberg |
FC Augsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 295 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,132 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SV Elversberg
Confirmed XI
20N. Kristof(G)
21L. Günther
31M. Rohr
19L. Pinckert
30J. Gyamerah
8Ł. Poręba
43F. Keidel
7M. Krattenmacher
10N. Darvich
25L. Petkov
42David Mokwa
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
2C. Brackelmann
5C. Matsima
35A. Bah
16Hennes Behrens
32F. Rieder
4H. Massengo
27M. Wolf
21A. Ibrahimović
19Robin Fellhauer
9Rodrigo Ribeiro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SV Elversberg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −6.0% · Defence line −12.8% of weighted minutes
- DEF J. Gyamerah Starter 6.83 Def −12.8%
- ATT F. Onyeka Starter 6.29 Att −6.0%
FC Augsburg
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −14.4% · Defence line −13.9% of weighted minutes
- ATT A. Claude-Maurice Starter 6.82 Att −14.4%
- DEF N. Banks Starter 6.80 Def −11.9%
- DEF J. Bah Rotation 6.53 Def −2.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- SV Elversberg+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- FC Augsburg-0.3 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
SV Elversberg · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
FC Augsburg · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | SV Elversberg | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 3–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 5 of 9 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| SV Elversberg | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 4.20 | 3.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 100% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| SV Elversberg | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.80 | 3.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 90% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 5 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SV Elversberg | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.20 | 7.40 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 12.20 | 10.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 2.60 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| SV Elversberg | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 6.80 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 11.80 | 10.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 2.90 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Exner Germany · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.52league 3.46
Red cards0.19league 0.11
Cards 5+45%league 17%
Fouls22.2league 22.6
Penalties0.39league 0.13
Home wins39%league 52%
SV Elversberg1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W22 Aug 25H · 1. FC Kaiserslautern2–12
FC Augsburg4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 Jan 26A · Bayern München2–10
- L30 Aug 25H · Bayern München2–33
- W22 Feb 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–02
- L7 Apr 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SV Elversberg5 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
FC Augsburg5 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
SV Elversberg10 games · scored 23 · conceded 15
5
3
0-15
5
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 22 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
