Telstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Telstar were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Telstar. Telstar had 7.9 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 2.9 and had to travel 105 km.
Away travel105 kmRest days7.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Telstar41%
Draw26%
GO Ahead Eagles33%
Telstar42%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles31%
Telstar42%
Draw26%
GO Ahead Eagles32%
Telstar34%
Draw26%
GO Ahead Eagles40%
Telstar41%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles32%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Velsen-Zuid)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsIngmar Oostrom
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 20
Team strength
Telstar
GO Ahead Eagles
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
24
AttackIn forecast
29
13
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TelstarGO Ahead Eagles
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.83
1.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
-0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
50%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
13.17
ShotsContext
14.00
5.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
39%
On target shareContext
46%
8.83
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
66%
Box shareContext
67%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.83
Shots allowedContext
19.50
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.17
4.00
BlocksContext
8.00
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
67%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
375
PassesContext
437
300
Accurate passesContext
365
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.67
FoulsContext
9.17
10.83
Fouls sufferedContext
8.83
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
63%
Scored inContext
80%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.88
ShotsContext
14.70
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
38%
On target shareContext
40%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.33
66%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.80
13.88
Shots allowedContext
18.40
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
4.38
BlocksContext
6.88
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
71%
Save rateContext
71%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
347
PassesContext
463
272
Accurate passesContext
390
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.94
12.00
FoulsContext
8.40
12.25
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Telstar
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km308 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel105 km58 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Telstar |
GO Ahead Eagles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 25 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 105 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 308 km | 58 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
2J. Hardeveld
4G. Offerhaus
14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo
39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp
16D. Mertens
17N. Rossen
11T. Noslin
27P. Brouwer
30K. Tejan
7S. Hetli
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
29A. Adelgaard
4J. Kramer
3G. Nauber
2M. Deijl
8H. Linthorst
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
24K. Goudmijn
14O. Pettersson
9M. Smit
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Telstar
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Telstar-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GO Ahead Eagles+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Telstar · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.33
GO Ahead Eagles · Away
1.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Telstar | GO Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | L 1–3 H | D 2–2 A |
| FC Volendam | D 2–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| PEC Zwolle | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Ajax | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 1 of 12 · 0.25 per game | 8 of 12 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Telstar | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.33 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Telstar | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 71% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 43% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 29% | |
| Games | 6 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Telstar | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 7.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 5.17 | |
| Match total | 12.20 | 12.50 | 9.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 5/5 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.83 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.33 | 3.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Telstar | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.14 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.71 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.85 | 11.10 | 9.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.88 | 3.20 | 3.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 2/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ingmar Oostrom Netherlands · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.45league 3.55
Red cards0.25league 0.23
Cards 5+40%league 39%
Fouls22.0league 22.5
Penalties0.25league 0.19
Home wins40%league 48%
TelstarNo previous matches with this referee.
GO Ahead Eagles3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L18 Aug 24A · Willem II0–22
- D28 Jan 24H · NEC Nijmegen2–22
- D22 Oct 23H · Sparta Rotterdam0–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Telstar6 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles5 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Telstar8 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles9 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
4
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
