Telstar
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Telstar40.8%fair odds 2.45
Draw26.4%fair odds 3.78
GO Ahead Eagles32.8%fair odds 3.05
Expected goals1.49 – 1.31total 2.80
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
GO Ahead Eagles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Telstar ↓ · GO Ahead Eagles → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Telstar goals, columns GO Ahead Eagles goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%8.00
- 2–18.8%11.32
- 1–08.4%11.87
- 1–27.8%12.85
- 0–17.3%13.61
- 2–06.7%14.83
- 0–06.7%14.90
- 2–25.8%17.27
- 0–25.2%19.13
- 3–14.4%22.80
Winning margin
7.8%
Telstar by 3+
fair 12.80
12.3%
Telstar by 2
fair 8.10
20.7%
Telstar by 1
fair 4.84
26.4%
Draw
fair 3.78
18.1%
GO Ahead Eagles by 1
fair 5.52
9.6%
GO Ahead Eagles by 2
fair 10.45
5.1%
GO Ahead Eagles by 3+
fair 19.72
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Telstar goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
GO Ahead Eagles goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar win | 40.8% | 41.2% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 26.4% | 27.0% | -0.6 pp |
| GO Ahead Eagles win | 32.8% | 31.8% | +0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.0% | 50.4% | +2.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.2% | 55.1% | +2.1 pp |
| Expected goals Telstar | 1.49 | 1.45 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals GO Ahead Eagles | 1.31 | 1.24 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Telstar win40.8%2.45
- Draw26.4%3.78
- GO Ahead Eagles win32.8%3.05
- Double chance Telstar or draw67.2%1.49
- Double chance Telstar or GO Ahead Eagles73.6%1.36
- Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or draw59.2%1.69
- Draw no bet Telstar55.5%1.80
- Draw no bet GO Ahead Eagles44.5%2.25
Goals
- Over 0.593.3%1.07
- Over 1.577.5%1.29
- Over 2.553.0%1.89
- Over 3.530.8%3.25
- Over 4.515.2%6.57
- Under 1.522.5%4.45
- Under 2.547.0%2.13
- Under 3.569.2%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes57.2%1.75
- No42.8%2.34
- Yes and over 2.544.7%2.24
- Telstar win and yes20.6%4.86
- Draw and yes19.7%5.07
- GO Ahead Eagles win and yes16.9%5.92
Team goals
- Telstar over 0.577.4%1.29
- Telstar over 1.543.8%2.28
- Telstar over 2.518.8%5.31
- GO Ahead Eagles over 0.573.0%1.37
- GO Ahead Eagles over 1.537.7%2.65
- GO Ahead Eagles over 2.514.5%6.88
- Telstar clean sheet27.0%3.71
- GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet22.6%4.43
- Telstar win to nil20.2%4.94
- GO Ahead Eagles win to nil15.9%6.31
Handicap
- Telstar −1.520.2%4.96
- Telstar −2.57.8%12.80
- GO Ahead Eagles +1.579.8%1.25
- GO Ahead Eagles +2.592.2%1.08
- GO Ahead Eagles −1.514.6%6.83
- Telstar +1.585.4%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored62
Favourite won51.6%
Avg chance given to result43.3%
1X2 Brier0.555
Over 2.5 called right67.7%
BTTS called right59.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.1% | 12.5% |
| 40–50% | 18 | 44.0% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 19 | 56.0% | 57.9% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 64.0% | 77.8% |
| 70–80% | 6 | 75.2% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 40 of 62 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5546 | 0.5176 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.0% | 45.9% |
| Favourite won | 47.5% | 60.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 40 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 62 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.