Telstar vs Heerenveen – 19 Oct 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Oct 19 · 11:15 BUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid

Telstar 15th · 7 pts · 8 played WLLWL

2–3Full time

Heerenveen 12th · 9 pts · 8 played DLWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Telstar were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Telstar. Telstar had 13.8 days of rest, Heerenveen 14.6 and had to travel 102 km.

Away travel102 kmRest days13.8 · 14.6Matches / 14d1 · 0

Telstar47%

Draw26%

Heerenveen28%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.19

Telstar48%

Draw26%

Heerenveen26%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.12

Telstar47%

Draw26%

Heerenveen27%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.16

Telstar39%

Draw27%

Heerenveen34%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.33

Telstar47%

Draw26%

Heerenveen27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.15

Over 2.5 53% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Velsen-Zuid)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsDennis Higler

Cards per match 3.1
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 39

Team strength

Telstar

Heerenveen

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 31

24 AttackIn forecast 36

13 DefenceIn forecast 40

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Heerenveen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Telstar

Heerenveen

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.63

1.30 xGVia Att/Def 1.98

1.77 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.48

63% Scored inContext 88%

13% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.00 ShotsContext 15.50

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.63

39% On target shareContext 30%

9.38 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

66% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 10%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.25 Shots allowedContext 9.50

5.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.38

4.63 BlocksContext 3.00

3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63

67% Save rateContext 60%

44% PossessionIn forecast 53%

357 PassesContext 433

282 Accurate passesContext 344

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.86

11.88 FoulsContext 10.00

10.13 Fouls sufferedContext 12.63

1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.63

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.30 xGVia Att/Def 1.89

1.77 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

+0.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.49

70% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.80 ShotsContext 15.10

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

38% On target shareContext 31%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.70

66% Box shareContext 66%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.38 OffsidesContext 2.14

15.00 Shots allowedContext 9.40

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

4.80 BlocksContext 2.60

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

71% Save rateContext 65%

42% PossessionIn forecast 52%

339 PassesContext 421

263 Accurate passesContext 335

78% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.90

12.10 FoulsContext 11.00

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Telstar

Rest13.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km40 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Heerenveen

Rest14.6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel102 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Telstar	Heerenveen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 5 Oct	14.6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 4 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	102 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	40 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 0 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.3	5.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Telstar Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1R. Koeman(G)

2J. Hardeveld 4G. Offerhaus 21D. Koswal

39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp 17N. Rossen 16D. Mertens 11T. Noslin

7S. Hetli 27P. Brouwer

30K. Tejan

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Heerenveen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22B. Klaverboer(G)

19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 6J. van Overeem 45O. Braude

16M. Linday 8L. Brouwers

7M. Rivera 10R. Meerveld 20J. Trenskow

9D. Vente

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Telstar Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Heerenveen Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Telstar-0.8 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Heerenveen+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Telstar · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 2.25

Heerenveen · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Telstar	Heerenveen
GO Ahead Eagles	W 4–2 H	D 2–2 H
Groningen	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 A
FC Volendam	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 H
Points	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game	2 of 9 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Telstar	Heerenveen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	1.50
Conceded per game	1.88	1.63
Match goals	3.13	3.13	2.80
Over 1.5	100%	88%
Over 2.5	50%	75%	53%
Over 3.5	38%	38%
Both teams scored	50%	88%	56%
Clean sheets	13%	0%
Failed to score	38%	13%
Games	8	8

	Telstar	Heerenveen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	1.50
Conceded per game	1.88	1.63
Match goals	3.13	3.13	2.80
Over 1.5	100%	88%
Over 2.5	50%	75%	53%
Over 3.5	38%	38%
Both teams scored	50%	88%	56%
Clean sheets	13%	0%
Failed to score	38%	13%
Games	8	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Telstar	Heerenveen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.71	5.63
Corners conceded	5.86	4.50
Match total	11.57	10.13	9.86
Over 8.5	100% 7/7	88% 7/8
Over 9.5	71% 5/7	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	57% 4/7	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	1.75	1.88
Opponent cards	1.00	2.50
Match total	2.75	4.38	3.77
Over 3.5	25% 2/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	38% 3/8

	Telstar	Heerenveen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.22	5.10
Corners conceded	5.44	4.10
Match total	10.66	9.20	9.86
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.50
Opponent cards	1.10	2.20
Match total	3.00	3.70	3.77
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Dennis Higler Netherlands · 39 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.87league 3.52

Red cards0.23league 0.22

Cards 5+26%league 36%

Fouls21.6league 22.4

Penalties0.21league 0.25

Home wins44%league 49%

Telstar

No previous matches with this referee.

Heerenveen2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.5 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L24 Aug 25H · Twente1–23
W22 Sep 24H · Groningen2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.