Telstar vs Heerenveen – 14 Feb 2027

Eredivisie Gameweek 22 Sun, Feb 14 · 16:00 711 Stadion, Velsen-Zuid

Telstar 16th · 6 pts · 9 played LDLDL

VS— Compare

Heerenveen 8th · 12 pts · 9 played LDWLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel102 kmRest days15 · 14.2Matches / 14d0 · 0

Real contextStrength only

Telstar—%

Draw—%

Heerenveen—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Velsen-Zuid)

Forecast from 30 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend Heerenveen 1.7 Goals scored per match Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Telstar

Heerenveen

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 31

24 AttackIn forecast 36

13 DefenceIn forecast 40

11 Form indexContext 39

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Heerenveen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Telstar

Heerenveen

1.11 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.22

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

2.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

-0.59 Goals minus xGContext +0.39

56% Scored inContext 67%

11% Clean sheetsContext 44%

12.00 ShotsContext 15.11

3.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

26% On target shareContext 40%

8.14 Shots in the boxContext 9.56

62% Box shareContext 66%

9% ConversionContext 11%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.20

16.78 Shots allowedContext 14.56

6.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

5.25 BlocksContext 4.44

5.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

71% Save rateContext 73%

45% PossessionIn forecast 53%

400 PassesContext 493

323 Accurate passesContext 421

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.92

10.44 FoulsContext 8.67

12.89 Fouls sufferedContext 10.78

1.44 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

2.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58

-0.45 Goals minus xGContext +0.43

60% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.50 ShotsContext 14.90

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90

26% On target shareContext 40%

7.75 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

63% Box shareContext 66%

10% ConversionContext 11%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.20

16.60 Shots allowedContext 15.20

6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

5.33 BlocksContext 4.70

5.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

73% Save rateContext 69%

46% PossessionIn forecast 54%

394 PassesContext 498

314 Accurate passesContext 425

80% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.88

11.20 FoulsContext 8.40

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Telstar LDLDL

Rest15 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected

L17 OctH · Feyenoord3–40.7 xPts
D11 OctH · ADO Den Haag2–21.9 xPts
L20 SepA · AZ Alkmaar0–10.5 xPts
D13 SepA · Heerenveen0–01.1 xPts
L9 SepA · Twente0–10.6 xPts

Heerenveen LDWLW

Rest14.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel102 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected

W16 OctH · Excelsior4–01.9 xPts
L9 OctA · PSV Eindhoven0–20.4 xPts
W19 SepA · Sparta Rotterdam4–01.2 xPts
D13 SepH · Telstar0–01.7 xPts
L6 SepH · AZ Alkmaar2–30.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Telstar	Heerenveen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	15Eredivisie 2026-2027, 30 Jan	14.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	102 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Telstar Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Feyenoord (H) 3–4, 17 Oct

1R. Koeman(G)

43M. Peersman 4A. Soualhia 16S. Valk 3G. Alders

17N. Rossen 10T. Owusu 23N. Shenkman

27P. Brouwer 11N. Þórisson 42A. Martha

Heerenveen Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Excelsior (H) 4–0, 16 Oct

1B. Klaverboer(G)

19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude

8N. Courtens 16M. Linday

7M. Rivera 14L. Smans 20J. Trenskow

9D. Vente

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Telstar Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Heerenveen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Telstar · Home 0.40points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-3
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 3.00

Heerenveen · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Telstar	Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–1 A	L 2–3 H
Twente	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 H
Ajax	L 0–4 H	D 2–2 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 1–3 H	W 4–0 A
Points	0 of 12 · 0.00 per game	7 of 12 · 1.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Telstar wins1 draws2 Heerenveen wins

Goals per game0.67 – 2.00 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 67%

13 Sep 2026Heerenveen0–0Telstar
14 Mar 2026Heerenveen3–0Telstar
19 Oct 2025Telstar2–3Heerenveen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Telstar	Heerenveen
Scored per game	1.11	1.67
Conceded per game	2.00	1.22
Match goals	3.11	2.89
Over 1.5	67%	78%
Over 2.5	67%	56%
Over 3.5	56%	56%
Both teams scored	56%	33%
Clean sheets	11%	44%
Failed to score	44%	33%
Games	9	9

	Telstar	Heerenveen
Scored per game	1.20	1.50
Conceded per game	1.90	1.10
Match goals	3.10	2.60
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	30%
Clean sheets	10%	50%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Telstar	Heerenveen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.13	5.11
Corners conceded	6.75	4.89
Match total	10.88	10.00	10.39
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	63% 5/8	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.56	1.00
Opponent cards	1.78	1.33
Match total	3.34	2.33	2.77
Over 3.5	44% 4/9	11% 1/9
Over 4.5	22% 2/9	0% 0/9

	Telstar	Heerenveen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.13	5.20
Corners conceded	6.75	5.20
Match total	10.88	10.40	10.39
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	63% 5/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.00
Opponent cards	1.80	1.20
Match total	3.40	2.20	2.77
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.