Eredivisie Gameweek 22 Sun, Feb 14 · 16:00 Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven 3rd · 19 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Twente 5th · 17 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel130 kmRest days14.9 · 14.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
PSV Eindhoven—%
Draw—%
Twente—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Eindhoven)

Forecast from 30 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for PSV Eindhoven and Twente. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

PSV EindhovenTwente
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
71 Current StrengthIn forecast 45
60 AttackIn forecast 41
64 DefenceIn forecast 49
32 Form indexContext 58
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PSV Eindhoven

Attack—
Defense risk—

Twente

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PSV EindhovenTwente
3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.89
1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.11
2.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.63
0.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.74
+0.57 Goals minus xGContext +0.26
100% Scored inContext 89%
11% Clean sheetsContext 22%
19.44 ShotsContext 20.56
7.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
37% On target shareContext 34%
13.44 Shots in the boxContext 13.44
71% Box shareContext 65%
15% ConversionContext 9%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.57
10.89 Shots allowedContext 11.11
4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89
3.29 BlocksContext 4.57
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67
67% Save rateContext 69%
61% PossessionIn forecast 58%
573 PassesContext 535
508 Accurate passesContext 462
89% Pass accuracyContext 86%
7.01 Team ratingContext 6.97
9.78 FoulsContext 11.33
9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 8.44
1.56 Yellow cardsContext 0.78
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
2.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.63
1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.74
+0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.27
90% Scored inContext 90%
10% Clean sheetsContext 20%
17.30 ShotsContext 20.56
6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
38% On target shareContext 34%
11.60 Shots in the boxContext 13.44
67% Box shareContext 65%
15% ConversionContext 9%
2.22 OffsidesContext 1.57
11.70 Shots allowedContext 11.11
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89
3.56 BlocksContext 4.57
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67
71% Save rateContext 69%
58% PossessionIn forecast 58%
526 PassesContext 535
464 Accurate passesContext 462
88% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.95 Team ratingContext 6.97
10.50 FoulsContext 11.33
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.44
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PSV Eindhoven
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 32 · 6 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · ADO Den Haag1–22.4 xPts
  • L13 OctA · RB Leipzig0–11.2 xPts
  • W9 OctH · Heerenveen2–02.5 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Twente2–31.8 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Sparta Rotterdam4–12.7 xPts
Twente
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel130 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 10 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Utrecht1–22.1 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Fortuna Sittard1–11.9 xPts
  • W20 SepH · PSV Eindhoven3–21.0 xPts
  • W12 SepH · ADO Den Haag2–02.4 xPts
  • W9 SepH · Telstar1–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
PSV Eindhoven Twente
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 30 Jan14.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km130 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 40 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

PSV Eindhoven Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs ADO Den Haag (A) 1–2, 17 Oct
32M. Kovář(G)
18F. Kostić 4A. Obispo 2L. Geertruida 8S. Dest
17Mauro Júnior 24K. Sano
35A. Santos 20G. Til 27D. Man
21S. Mijnans
Twente Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Utrecht (H) 1–2, 18 Oct
16J. Drommel(G)
29A. Adelgaard 4Ruud Nijstad 3R. Pröpper 28B. van Rooij
8D. Weidmann 6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter 14K. Hlynsson 11D. Rots
9W. Weghorst

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
PSV Eindhoven Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Twente Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

PSV Eindhoven · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
3.25
Conceded
1.00
Twente · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.75
Conceded
1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentPSV EindhovenTwente
ADO Den Haag L 1–2 A W 2–0 H
Heerenveen W 2–0 H L 0–1 A
Utrecht W 6–1 A L 1–2 H
Groningen W 5–1 H D 2–2 A
Fortuna Sittard D 2–2 H D 1–1 A
Points10 of 15 · 2.00 per game5 of 15 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

5 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws1 Twente wins
Goals per game3.50 – 1.00 Over 2.583% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%
  • 20 Sep 2026Twente3–2PSV Eindhoven
  • 17 May 2026PSV Eindhoven5–1Twente
  • 17 Aug 2025Twente0–2PSV Eindhoven
  • 24 Apr 2025Twente1–3PSV Eindhoven
  • 6 Dec 2024PSV Eindhoven6–1Twente
  • 25 Nov 2023Twente0–3PSV Eindhoven

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

PSV EindhovenTwenteForecast
Scored per game 3.001.89
Conceded per game 1.331.11
Match goals 4.333.00
Over 1.5 100%78%
Over 2.5 89%56%
Over 3.5 67%44%
Both teams scored 89%67%
Clean sheets 11%22%
Failed to score 0%11%
Games99
PSV EindhovenTwenteForecast
Scored per game 2.601.90
Conceded per game 1.201.20
Match goals 3.803.10
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 70%60%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 80%70%
Clean sheets 10%20%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

PSV EindhovenTwenteLeague
Corners
Corners won5.297.22
Corners conceded3.863.89
Match total9.1511.1110.39
Over 8.557% 4/7100% 9/9
Over 9.557% 4/778% 7/9
Over 10.543% 3/767% 6/9
Cards
Cards1.670.78
Opponent cards2.001.56
Match total3.672.342.77
Over 3.533% 3/922% 2/9
Over 4.533% 3/90% 0/9
PSV EindhovenTwenteLeague
Corners
Corners won5.447.22
Corners conceded3.893.89
Match total9.3311.1110.39
Over 8.556% 5/9100% 9/9
Over 9.556% 5/978% 7/9
Over 10.544% 4/967% 6/9
Cards
Cards1.901.00
Opponent cards2.401.60
Match total4.302.602.77
Over 3.540% 4/1030% 3/10
Over 4.540% 4/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

PSV Eindhoven9 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
4 4 0-15
5 1 16-30
5 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
6 4 76-90
Twente9 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
2 1 0-15
3 5 16-30
3 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
3 1 76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 26 · conceded 12
4 4 0-15
5 1 16-30
5 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
6 3 76-90
Twente10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
3 6 16-30
3 31-45
2 3 46-60
4 1 61-75
5 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Willem II Sparta Rotterdam Feb 1416:00 Excelsior Ajax Feb 1416:00 PSV Eindhoven Twente Feb 1416:00 Groningen AZ Alkmaar Feb 1416:00 Fortuna Sittard ADO Den Haag Feb 1416:00 Feyenoord NEC Nijmegen Feb 1416:00 GO Ahead Eagles PEC Zwolle Feb 1416:00 Cambuur Utrecht Feb 1416:00 Telstar Heerenveen Feb 1416:00