Eredivisie Gameweek 22 Sun, Feb 14 · 16:00 Kooi Stadion, Leeuwarden
Cambuur 14th · 9 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Utrecht 11th · 11 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel132 kmRest days14.1 · 15.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Cambuur—%
Draw—%
Utrecht—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Leeuwarden)

Forecast from 30 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Cambuur and Utrecht. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

CambuurUtrecht
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
23 Current StrengthIn forecast 34
22 AttackIn forecast 32
23 DefenceIn forecast 31
51 Form indexContext 65
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Cambuur

Attack—
Defense risk—

Utrecht

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

CambuurUtrecht
1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.78
2.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.89
1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.31
2.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72
+0.25 Goals minus xGContext +0.47
89% Scored inContext 89%
22% Clean sheetsContext 0%
11.89 ShotsContext 12.89
4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33
37% On target shareContext 34%
8.33 Shots in the boxContext 10.25
71% Box shareContext 69%
12% ConversionContext 14%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
14.78 Shots allowedContext 18.11
5.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00
4.00 BlocksContext 4.33
3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
63% Save rateContext 57%
46% PossessionIn forecast 43%
369 PassesContext 391
295 Accurate passesContext 313
80% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.79 Team ratingContext 6.55
12.11 FoulsContext 16.33
14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.67
1.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.11
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.80
1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.38
2.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65
+0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.52
90% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 0%
14.10 ShotsContext 13.70
4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50
35% On target shareContext 33%
9.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.67
69% Box shareContext 68%
10% ConversionContext 14%
2.11 OffsidesContext 1.83
13.80 Shots allowedContext 17.60
5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80
3.70 BlocksContext 4.10
3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90
64% Save rateContext 57%
49% PossessionIn forecast 43%
395 PassesContext 388
317 Accurate passesContext 312
80% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.84 Team ratingContext 6.60
12.40 FoulsContext 15.80
14.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Cambuur
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 51 · 9 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · +3.3 vs expected
  • D18 OctH · AZ Alkmaar2–20.9 xPts
  • W11 OctA · PEC Zwolle1–01.3 xPts
  • D19 SepA · ADO Den Haag1–11.4 xPts
  • W12 SepH · NEC Nijmegen3–01.1 xPts
  • D6 SepA · Telstar2–21.0 xPts
Utrecht
Rest15.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel132 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +4.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Twente2–10.7 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Willem II3–12.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Feyenoord0–50.5 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Excelsior2–10.9 xPts
  • D8 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles3–31.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Cambuur Utrecht
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 31 Jan15.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 29 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km132 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 20 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Cambuur Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs AZ Alkmaar (H) 2–2, 18 Oct
1T. Jansen(G)
28M. Costarelli 14B. van Duijl 4I. Baouf 2D. Bouah
8N. Souren 33M. Maertens
11I. Hamache 10Rafik El Arguioui 30J. Çeka
13N. Binder
Utrecht Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Twente (A) 2–1, 18 Oct
22S. Padt(G)
5N. Panagiotou 3M. Didden 2S. Horemans
92A. Zagré 38O. Agougil 8J. van Overeem 23N. Vesterlund
11Ángel Alarcón 20D. de Wit 10Y. Cathline

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Cambuur Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Utrecht Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Cambuur · Home 0.80points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
1-1-3
Scored
1.60
Conceded
3.00
Utrecht · Away 1.40points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
2-1-2
Scored
1.60
Conceded
2.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentCambuurUtrecht
AZ Alkmaar D 2–2 H L 1–4 H
Twente L 1–4 H W 2–1 A
Feyenoord L 2–5 H L 0–5 A
Excelsior L 0–4 H W 2–1 A
Points1 of 12 · 0.25 per game6 of 12 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

CambuurUtrechtForecast
Scored per game 1.441.78
Conceded per game 2.332.89
Match goals 3.784.67
Over 1.5 89%100%
Over 2.5 78%100%
Over 3.5 67%67%
Both teams scored 67%89%
Clean sheets 22%0%
Failed to score 11%11%
Games99
CambuurUtrechtForecast
Scored per game 1.441.80
Conceded per game 2.332.60
Match goals 3.784.40
Over 1.5 89%100%
Over 2.5 78%90%
Over 3.5 67%60%
Both teams scored 67%80%
Clean sheets 22%10%
Failed to score 11%10%
Games910

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

CambuurUtrechtLeague
Corners
Corners won3.784.25
Corners conceded5.785.25
Match total9.569.5010.39
Over 8.578% 7/963% 5/8
Over 9.544% 4/950% 4/8
Over 10.533% 3/938% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.782.11
Opponent cards1.780.89
Match total3.563.002.77
Over 3.556% 5/933% 3/9
Over 4.533% 3/922% 2/9
CambuurUtrechtLeague
Corners
Corners won4.804.67
Corners conceded5.305.33
Match total10.1010.0010.39
Over 8.580% 8/1067% 6/9
Over 9.550% 5/1056% 5/9
Over 10.540% 4/1044% 4/9
Cards
Cards2.001.90
Opponent cards2.400.90
Match total4.402.802.77
Over 3.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Over 4.540% 4/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Cambuur9 games · scored 13 · conceded 21
1 2 0-15
2 6 16-30
2 4 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
4 5 76-90
Utrecht9 games · scored 16 · conceded 26
1 4 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
3 7 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 7 76-90
Cambuur10 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
1 2 0-15
2 6 16-30
2 4 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 6 76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 19 · conceded 28
1 4 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
6 8 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 8 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Willem II Sparta Rotterdam Feb 1416:00 Excelsior Ajax Feb 1416:00 PSV Eindhoven Twente Feb 1416:00 Groningen AZ Alkmaar Feb 1416:00 Fortuna Sittard ADO Den Haag Feb 1416:00 Feyenoord NEC Nijmegen Feb 1416:00 GO Ahead Eagles PEC Zwolle Feb 1416:00 Cambuur Utrecht Feb 1416:00 Telstar Heerenveen Feb 1416:00