Tondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Tondela were slight favourites.
Tondela were the stronger side on L90 Strength (17 vs 11). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Tondela. Tondela had 12 days of rest, AVS 6.2 and had to travel.
Rest days12 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Tondela50%
Draw30%
AVS21%
Tondela52%
Draw25%
AVS23%
Tondela50%
Draw30%
AVS21%
Tondela43%
Draw31%
AVS26%
Tondela52%
Draw28%
AVS21%
Over 2.5 35%
Both score 40%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Tondela)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMiguel Nogueira
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 60
Team strength
Tondela
AVS
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
11
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
16
AttackIn forecast
17
29
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TondelaAVS
0.76
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.69
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.23
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
0.78
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
44%
Scored inContext
42%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
12%
9.96
ShotsContext
9.88
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.68
33%
On target shareContext
26%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.52
62%
Box shareContext
56%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
2.95
OffsidesContext
2.13
12.84
Shots allowedContext
14.38
4.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.27
3.38
BlocksContext
3.52
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.24
74%
Save rateContext
61%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
309
PassesContext
303
242
Accurate passesContext
224
78%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.58
14.16
FoulsContext
13.38
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.12
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.08
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
0.65
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
50%
Scored inContext
30%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
7.70
ShotsContext
10.40
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.56
34%
On target shareContext
22%
5.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
66%
Box shareContext
51%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
3.20
OffsidesContext
2.57
12.40
Shots allowedContext
13.90
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.50
BlocksContext
4.33
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
78%
Save rateContext
67%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
303
PassesContext
285
234
Accurate passesContext
200
77%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.63
14.50
FoulsContext
12.80
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tondela
Rest12 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AVS
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tondela |
AVS |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Mar | 6.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.9 | 12.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
27Rodrigo Conceição
20Brayan Medina
4Christian Marques
44João Silva
2Bebeto
90M. Aïko
8Hélder Tavares
10J. Hodge
7Pedro Henryque
23B. Mbunga Kimpioka
AVS
Confirmed XI
1Adriel
12Leonardo Rivas
26Carlos Ponck
33Aderllan Santos
97Mateus Pivô
8Pedro Lima
70Roni
23Gustavo Mendonça
14Ó. Perea
7Tómané
25A. Green
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tondela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AVS+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Tondela · Home
0.62points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-7
- Scored
- 0.69
- Conceded
- 1.31
AVS · Away
0.25points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-9
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Tondela | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Santa Clara | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Estrela | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Alverca | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 AL 1–3 H |
| Estoril | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | W 3–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Benfica | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–4 HD 2–2 A |
| Moreirense | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Arouca | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Casa Pia | L 1–2 H | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Nacional | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| GIL Vicente | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 H | L 0–6 A |
| Points | 18 of 72 · 0.75 per game | 9 of 75 · 0.36 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Tondela wins1 draws0 AVS wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 2 Nov 2025AVS2–2Tondela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tondela | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.76 | 0.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 2.23 | |
| Match goals | 2.32 | 2.92 | 2.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 62% | 35% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 38% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 12% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 58% | |
| Games | 25 | 26 |
| Tondela | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.40 | 2.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 35% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 70% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tondela | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.64 | 3.95 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.52 | 5.82 | |
| Match total | 9.16 | 9.77 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 12/25 | 68% 15/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 10/25 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 9/25 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.68 | 2.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.28 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 4.96 | 4.65 | 5.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 72% 18/25 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 52% 13/25 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Tondela | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 10.00 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.60 | 5.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Nogueira Portugal · 60 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.13league 4.82
Red cards0.28league 0.27
Cards 5+47%league 58%
Fouls25.4league 27.0
Penalties0.25league 0.43
Home wins42%league 41%
Tondela1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.7.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W27 Sep 25A · Santa Clara2–17
AVS3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L8 Mar 25H · Arouca0–11
- L28 Oct 24H · FC Porto0–52
- L31 Aug 24A · Santa Clara1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tondela25 games · scored 19 · conceded 39
5
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
8
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
9
61-75
2
11
76-90
AVS26 games · scored 18 · conceded 58
1
9
0-15
1
8
16-30
4
10
31-45
3
12
46-60
3
12
61-75
6
7
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
4
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
