Tondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Benfica. Tondela had 7.1 days of rest, Benfica 7.1 and had to travel 219 km.
Away travel219 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Tondela8%
Draw16%
Benfica76%
Tondela9%
Draw17%
Benfica74%
Tondela8%
Draw16%
Benfica76%
Tondela5%
Draw13%
Benfica81%
Tondela8%
Draw16%
Benfica76%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Tondela)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuís Godinho
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 80
Team strength
Tondela
Benfica
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
16
AttackIn forecast
81
29
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBenfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TondelaBenfica
0.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.21
1.74
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.58
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.71
-0.50
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
37%
Scored inContext
95%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
53%
10.16
ShotsContext
15.53
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.79
32%
On target shareContext
37%
6.05
Shots in the boxContext
10.11
59%
Box shareContext
65%
6%
ConversionContext
14%
3.06
OffsidesContext
1.93
12.32
Shots allowedContext
8.11
5.05
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.94
3.11
BlocksContext
2.32
3.76
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.53
72%
Save rateContext
83%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
311
PassesContext
492
245
Accurate passesContext
423
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.65
Team ratingContext
7.04
14.21
FoulsContext
11.58
11.68
Fouls sufferedContext
14.84
2.58
Yellow cardsContext
2.16
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.78
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
50%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
8.90
ShotsContext
15.00
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
29%
On target shareContext
39%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
62%
Box shareContext
69%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
2.88
OffsidesContext
1.63
10.50
Shots allowedContext
8.50
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.60
2.60
BlocksContext
2.90
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
70%
Save rateContext
72%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
303
PassesContext
439
233
Accurate passesContext
369
77%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.57
Team ratingContext
7.03
14.70
FoulsContext
10.60
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
16.90
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tondela
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km211 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Benfica
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel219 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tondela |
Benfica |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 219 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 211 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
60N. Maviram
20Brayan Medina
4Christian Marques
2Bebeto
10J. Hodge
15S. Sithole
90M. Aïko
97Cicero
27Rodrigo Conceição
29J. Siebatcheu
Benfica
Confirmed XI
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
30N. Otamendi
4António Silva
58Daniel Banjaqui
18L. Barreiro
8F. Aursnes
21A. Schjelderup
10H. Sudakov
25G. Prestianni
14V. Pavlidis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tondela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Benfica+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Tondela · Home
0.56points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-6
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.44
Benfica · Away
2.56points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-0
- Scored
- 2.11
- Conceded
- 0.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Tondela | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Moreirense | L 0–1 A | W 4–0 A |
| Arouca | W 3–1 H | W 5–0 H |
| Casa Pia | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Nacional | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| GIL Vicente | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| AVS | D 2–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Rio Ave | L 0–3 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Estrela | D 0–0 H | W 4–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Alverca | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Estoril | D 2–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 12 of 54 · 0.67 per game | 42 of 54 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Tondela wins0 draws1 Benfica wins
Goals per game0.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 23 Aug 2025Benfica3–0Tondela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tondela | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.63 | 2.21 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.74 | 0.58 | |
| Match goals | 2.37 | 2.79 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 63% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 32% | 47% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 53% | |
| Failed to score | 63% | 5% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Tondela | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.10 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tondela | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.47 | 6.06 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.26 | 2.56 | |
| Match total | 8.73 | 8.62 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 8/19 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 37% 7/19 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 6/19 | 22% 4/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.68 | 2.26 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.21 | 2.79 | |
| Match total | 4.89 | 5.05 | 5.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 13/19 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 8/19 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Tondela | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 8.40 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.30 | 5.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luís Godinho Portugal · 80 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.99league 4.96
Red cards0.24league 0.29
Cards 5+60%league 58%
Fouls28.9league 27.2
Penalties0.30league 0.47
Home wins40%league 40%
Tondela1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L7 Dec 25H · FC Porto0–22
Benfica8 with this referee
Record6-1-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L4 Jan 25H · SC Braga1–24
- W1 Dec 24A · Arouca2–03
- D11 Feb 24A · Guimaraes2–24
- W17 Dec 23A · SC Braga1–03
- W16 Sep 23A · Vizela2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tondela19 games · scored 12 · conceded 33
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
8
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
8
61-75
1
10
76-90
Benfica18 games · scored 37 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
7
16-30
9
3
31-45
9
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
8
4
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
5
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 23 · conceded 8
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
7
3
31-45
6
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
