Tondela vs Estoril – 31 Aug 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 4 Sun, Aug 31 · 15:30 Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela

Tondela 18th · 0 pts · 3 played LLL

2–2Full time

Estoril 14th · 1 pts · 2 played DL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Estoril were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 19). Estoril usually keep the ball (53% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Tondela had 7.8 days of rest, Estoril 14.9 and had to travel 231 km.

Away travel231 kmRest days7.8 · 14.9Matches / 14d1 · 0

Tondela35%

Draw29%

Estoril37%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.26

Tondela36%

Draw27%

Estoril37%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.34

Tondela35%

Draw29%

Estoril37%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.26

Tondela28%

Draw28%

Estoril44%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.41

Tondela36%

Draw27%

Estoril37%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.34

Over 2.5 45% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Tondela)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalSergio Guelho

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 11

Team strength

Tondela

Estoril

19 L90 StrengthIn forecast 28

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

16 AttackIn forecast 21

29 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Tondela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Tondela

Estoril

0.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

0.55 xGVia Att/Def 0.90

1.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67

-0.55 Goals minus xGContext +0.60

0% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

9.67 ShotsContext 9.50

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

35% On target shareContext 42%

5.67 Shots in the boxContext 5.00

60% Box shareContext 54%

0% ConversionContext 16%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.33 Shots allowedContext 12.50

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

2.50 BlocksContext 2.50

4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

62% Save rateContext 56%

38% PossessionIn forecast 55%

300 PassesContext 405

248 Accurate passesContext 331

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.69

12.67 FoulsContext 14.50

12.67 Fouls sufferedContext 15.50

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 3.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 2 games

0.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

2.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

-0.55 Goals minus xGContext +0.44

0% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

9.67 ShotsContext 8.60

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

35% On target shareContext 47%

5.67 Shots in the boxContext 5.30

60% Box shareContext 57%

0% ConversionContext 20%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.33 Shots allowedContext 9.90

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

— BlocksContext 2.44

4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

62% Save rateContext 59%

38% PossessionIn forecast 52%

300 PassesContext 413

248 Accurate passesContext 332

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.67 FoulsContext 15.70

12.67 Fouls sufferedContext 14.90

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 3 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Tondela

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km439 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Estoril

Rest14.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel231 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Tondela	Estoril
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 23 Aug	14.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	231 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	439 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	12.2	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Tondela Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31Bernardo Fontes(G)

60N. Maviram 20Brayan Medina 4Christian Marques 2Bebeto

15S. Sithole 32Juan Rodríguez

7Pedro Henryque 67Yarlen 48Tiago Manso

9Miro

Estoril Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1Joel Robles(G)

24Pedro Amaral 25F. Bacher 44K. Boma

55Tiago Parente 10J. Holsgrove 7N. Lominadze 22Pedro Carvalho

14Y. Begraoui 12João Carvalho 19André Lacximicant

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Tondela Absences are shown before kick-off

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Tondela+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estoril+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Tondela · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Estoril · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Tondela	Estoril	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.50
Conceded per game	2.33	2.00
Match goals	2.33	3.50	2.48
Over 1.5	67%	100%
Over 2.5	67%	50%	45%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	51%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	3	2

	Tondela	Estoril	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.50
Conceded per game	2.33	2.00
Match goals	2.33	3.50	2.48
Over 1.5	67%	100%
Over 2.5	67%	50%	45%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	51%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	3	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Tondela	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	3.00
Corners conceded	8.00	4.00
Match total	10.00	7.00	9.19
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	0% 0/2
Over 9.5	33% 1/3	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	1.67	3.50
Opponent cards	1.33	2.50
Match total	3.00	6.00	5.15
Over 3.5	67% 2/3	100% 2/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/3	100% 2/2

	Tondela	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	3.50
Corners conceded	8.00	3.70
Match total	10.00	7.20	9.19
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	20% 2/10
Over 9.5	33% 1/3	10% 1/10
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	1.67	2.70
Opponent cards	1.33	2.30
Match total	3.00	5.00	5.15
Over 3.5	67% 2/3	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/3	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sergio Guelho Portugal · 11 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 5.10

Red cards0.00league 0.20

Cards 5+27%league 63%

Fouls26.1league 28.5

Penalties0.00league 0.30

Home wins55%league 37%

Tondela

No previous matches with this referee.

Estoril1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W22 Feb 25H · Rio Ave2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.