Tondela vs Estrela – 21 Sep 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 6 Sun, Sep 21 · 15:30 Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela

Tondela 17th · 1 pts · 5 played LLLDL

0–0Full time

Estrela 15th · 3 pts · 5 played DLDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Tondela were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Tondela had 8.8 days of rest, Estrela 7 and had to travel 219 km.

Away travel219 kmRest days8.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Tondela45%

Draw28%

Estrela28%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.07

Tondela46%

Draw26%

Estrela28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.15

Tondela45%

Draw28%

Estrela28%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.07

Tondela38%

Draw28%

Estrela34%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.20

Tondela46%

Draw26%

Estrela28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.15

Over 2.5 46% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Tondela)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalGustavo Correia

Cards per match 6.3
Penalties per match 0.39
Matches 56

Team strength

Tondela

Estrela

18 L90 StrengthIn forecast 16

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

16 AttackIn forecast 24

29 DefenceIn forecast 27

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Tondela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Tondela

Estrela

0.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

1.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

-0.96 Goals minus xGContext -0.57

20% Scored inContext 40%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.40 ShotsContext 11.20

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

35% On target shareContext 25%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.20

62% Box shareContext 43%

4% ConversionContext 5%

3.80 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.80 Shots allowedContext 10.20

5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

3.25 BlocksContext 3.20

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

66% Save rateContext 85%

43% PossessionIn forecast 48%

310 PassesContext 310

251 Accurate passesContext 245

81% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.79

12.00 FoulsContext 12.80

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 16.20

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

0.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

1.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.96 Goals minus xGContext -0.55

20% Scored inContext 30%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.40 ShotsContext 10.20

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33

35% On target shareContext 29%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.30

62% Box shareContext 52%

4% ConversionContext 5%

3.80 OffsidesContext 2.71

13.80 Shots allowedContext 12.70

5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

3.25 BlocksContext 3.90

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

66% Save rateContext 72%

43% PossessionIn forecast 46%

310 PassesContext 298

251 Accurate passesContext 227

81% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.82

12.00 FoulsContext 13.10

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 15.70

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 5 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Tondela

Rest8.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km395 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Estrela

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel219 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Tondela	Estrela
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 12 Sep	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	219 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	395 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Tondela Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31Bernardo Fontes(G)

21R. Vita 20Brayan Medina 4Christian Marques 2Bebeto

10J. Hodge 32Juan Rodríguez

17Ivan Cavaleiro 16Rony Lopes 7Pedro Henryque

29J. Siebatcheu

Estrela Confirmed XI

3-4-3

40Renan Ribeiro(G)

79A. Chernev 14Bernardo Schappo 30Luan Patrick

66Ryan 18Jorge Meireles 19Paulo Moreira 55Sidny Lopes Cabral

10I. Stoica 98Kikas 99A. Marcus

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Tondela Absences are shown before kick-off

Estrela Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Tondela+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estrela+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Tondela · Home 0.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.50

Estrela · Away 1.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-0
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Tondela	Estrela
Alverca	L 0–1 A	D 2–2 H
Estoril	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 A
Benfica	L 0–3 A	L 0–1 H
Points	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game	2 of 9 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Tondela	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	0.40	0.60
Conceded per game	2.00	1.20
Match goals	2.40	1.80	2.50
Over 1.5	60%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	20%	46%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	20%	40%	51%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Failed to score	80%	60%
Games	5	5

	Tondela	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	0.40	0.60
Conceded per game	2.00	1.20
Match goals	2.40	1.80	2.50
Over 1.5	60%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	20%	46%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	20%	40%	51%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Failed to score	80%	60%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Tondela	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	4.50
Corners conceded	6.60	2.75
Match total	9.60	7.25	8.98
Over 8.5	60% 3/5	25% 1/4
Over 9.5	40% 2/5	0% 0/4
Over 10.5	40% 2/5	0% 0/4
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.60
Opponent cards	1.60	2.80
Match total	3.20	5.40	5.02
Over 3.5	60% 3/5	80% 4/5
Over 4.5	0% 0/5	60% 3/5

	Tondela	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	3.78
Corners conceded	6.60	4.44
Match total	9.60	8.22	8.98
Over 8.5	60% 3/5	22% 2/9
Over 9.5	40% 2/5	11% 1/9
Over 10.5	40% 2/5	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	1.60	3.00
Opponent cards	1.60	2.90
Match total	3.20	5.90	5.02
Over 3.5	60% 3/5	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/5	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gustavo Correia Portugal · 56 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.93league 5.00

Red cards0.41league 0.20

Cards 5+73%league 61%

Fouls29.3league 27.7

Penalties0.39league 0.37

Home wins41%league 33%

Tondela

No previous matches with this referee.

Estrela3 with this referee

Record0-0-3 Cards · opp.4.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds2

L17 May 25A · Estoril0–42
L29 Mar 25H · Sporting CP0–38
L19 Aug 23A · Benfica0–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.