Tondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 19). Tondela had 8 days of rest, FC Porto 7 and had to travel 83 km.
Away travel83 kmRest days8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Tondela13%
Draw21%
FC Porto66%
Tondela13%
Draw20%
FC Porto67%
Tondela13%
Draw21%
FC Porto66%
Tondela9%
Draw18%
FC Porto73%
Tondela13%
Draw20%
FC Porto67%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Tondela)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuís Godinho
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 76
Team strength
Tondela
FC Porto
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
74
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
16
AttackIn forecast
74
29
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TondelaFC Porto
0.58
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.08
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.25
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.51
-0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
33%
Scored inContext
92%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
75%
10.92
ShotsContext
14.58
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
34%
On target shareContext
39%
6.42
Shots in the boxContext
9.83
59%
Box shareContext
66%
5%
ConversionContext
14%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.30
13.92
Shots allowedContext
9.00
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
3.73
BlocksContext
3.50
4.08
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
72%
Save rateContext
88%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
320
PassesContext
432
255
Accurate passesContext
366
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.99
14.50
FoulsContext
13.67
12.42
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.71
-0.52
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
40%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.10
ShotsContext
13.00
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
35%
On target shareContext
35%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
59%
Box shareContext
66%
6%
ConversionContext
12%
2.78
OffsidesContext
2.22
14.50
Shots allowedContext
8.50
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.13
3.90
BlocksContext
2.90
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.57
75%
Save rateContext
69%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
321
PassesContext
439
253
Accurate passesContext
369
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.87
14.80
FoulsContext
12.80
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tondela
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km243 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Porto
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel83 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tondela |
FC Porto |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 83 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 243 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
60N. Maviram
20Brayan Medina
4Christian Marques
48Tiago Manso
15S. Sithole
32Juan Rodríguez
70M. Moudjatovic
79Hugo Félix
7Pedro Henryque
29J. Siebatcheu
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
20Alberto Baio
86Rodrigo Mora
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
11Pepê
9Samu Omorodion
7William Gomes
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tondela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Tondela · Home
0.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-3
- Scored
- 0.40
- Conceded
- 1.40
FC Porto · Away
3.00points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-0-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Tondela | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Rio Ave | L 0–3 A | W 3–0 A |
| Estoril | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Benfica | L 0–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 4 of 24 · 0.50 per game | 22 of 24 · 2.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Tondela | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.58 | 2.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.33 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 58% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 58% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 25% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 8% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Tondela | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.20 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tondela | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.42 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.17 | 8.50 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 6/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 5/12 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 4/12 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.58 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.92 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.50 | 5.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 9/12 | 92% 11/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 5/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Tondela | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 8.10 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 5.70 | 5.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luís Godinho Portugal · 76 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.95league 5.18
Red cards0.25league 0.30
Cards 5+61%league 64%
Fouls29.2league 27.6
Penalties0.30league 0.48
Home wins41%league 36%
TondelaNo previous matches with this referee.
FC Porto8 with this referee
Record4-2-2
Cards · opp.2.8 · 4.0
Pens for · against2 · 2
- W13 Sep 25H · Nacional1–02
- L8 Mar 25A · SC Braga0–14
- D7 Dec 24A · Famalicao1–13
- L31 Aug 24A · Sporting CP0–25
- W20 Jan 24H · Moreirense5–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tondela12 games · scored 7 · conceded 20
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
7
31-45
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
6
76-90
FC Porto12 games · scored 25 · conceded 3
5
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
6
31-45
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 16 · conceded 6
4
0-15
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
