Tondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were clear favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 17). SC Braga usually keep the ball (61% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Tondela had 7 days of rest, SC Braga 15 and had to travel 119 km.
Away travel119 kmRest days7 · 15Matches / 14d1 · 0
Tondela17%
Draw23%
SC Braga60%
Tondela17%
Draw23%
SC Braga60%
Tondela17%
Draw23%
SC Braga60%
Tondela12%
Draw20%
SC Braga67%
Tondela17%
Draw23%
SC Braga60%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Tondela)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalGustavo Correia
- Cards per match 6.2
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 62
Team strength
Tondela
SC Braga
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
16
AttackIn forecast
42
29
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TondelaSC Braga
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.82
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.06
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
-0.45
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
41%
Scored inContext
82%
12%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.88
ShotsContext
12.82
3.53
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.06
32%
On target shareContext
39%
6.41
Shots in the boxContext
8.63
58%
Box shareContext
65%
7%
ConversionContext
14%
3.06
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.65
Shots allowedContext
8.24
5.24
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.12
3.06
BlocksContext
2.29
3.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
72%
Save rateContext
70%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
314
PassesContext
600
248
Accurate passesContext
525
79%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.83
13.71
FoulsContext
10.65
11.71
Fouls sufferedContext
12.41
2.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
2.09
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
50%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.20
ShotsContext
12.70
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
28%
On target shareContext
38%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
58%
Box shareContext
73%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
2.78
OffsidesContext
1.33
12.80
Shots allowedContext
8.90
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.00
BlocksContext
2.38
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
71%
Save rateContext
72%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
311
PassesContext
585
243
Accurate passesContext
513
78%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.40
FoulsContext
11.70
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tondela
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km198 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Braga
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel119 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tondela |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 Jan | 15Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 119 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 198 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
20Brayan Medina
4Christian Marques
2Bebeto
60N. Maviram
15S. Sithole
97Cicero
27Rodrigo Conceição
90M. Aïko
79Hugo Félix
7Pedro Henryque
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
4S. Niakaté
6Vitor Carvalho
14G. Lagerbielke
5Leonardo Lelo
8João Moutinho
27F. Grillitsch
20M. Dorgeles
21Ricardo Horta
18Pau Víctor
10R. Zalazar
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tondela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Tondela · Home
0.63points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-5
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
SC Braga · Away
1.44points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-2
- Scored
- 1.89
- Conceded
- 1.22
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Tondela | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Arouca | W 3–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| Casa Pia | L 1–2 H | W 4–0 H |
| Nacional | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| GIL Vicente | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| AVS | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Rio Ave | L 0–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Estrela | D 0–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| Alverca | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Estoril | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Benfica | L 0–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 12 of 48 · 0.75 per game | 24 of 48 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Tondela wins0 draws1 SC Braga wins
Goals per game0.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 10 Aug 2025SC Braga3–0Tondela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tondela | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.82 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.06 | |
| Match goals | 2.41 | 2.88 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 65% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 53% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 59% | 18% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Tondela | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tondela | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.65 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.41 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 9.06 | 8.60 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 8/17 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 7/17 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 6/17 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.82 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.76 | |
| Match total | 5.11 | 4.70 | 5.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 12/17 | 82% 14/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 7/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Tondela | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 9.55 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 5.00 | 5.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gustavo Correia Portugal · 62 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.81league 5.01
Red cards0.39league 0.28
Cards 5+71%league 58%
Fouls28.6league 27.2
Penalties0.40league 0.43
Home wins40%league 38%
Tondela1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D21 Sep 25H · Estrela0–04
SC Braga3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W15 Mar 25A · Farense1–01
- W26 Feb 24A · Boavista4–03
- W28 Aug 22A · Arouca6–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tondela17 games · scored 12 · conceded 29
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
7
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
7
61-75
1
8
76-90
SC Braga17 games · scored 31 · conceded 18
6
2
0-15
6
5
16-30
7
6
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 8 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
6
61-75
4
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 19 · conceded 13
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
6
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
