Torino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Torino were slight favourites.
Torino were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 31). Torino had 7.8 days of rest, Genoa 6.9 and had to travel 124 km.
Away travel124 kmRest days7.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Torino49%
Draw27%
Genoa24%
Torino50%
Draw26%
Genoa24%
Torino48%
Draw27%
Genoa24%
Torino42%
Draw28%
Genoa30%
Torino51%
Draw25%
Genoa24%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Bonacina
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 5
Team strength
Torino
Genoa
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
39
AttackIn forecast
23
47
DefenceIn forecast
44
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TorinoGenoa
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.43
1.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
-0.35
Goals minus xGContext
-0.62
57%
Scored inContext
43%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
11.57
ShotsContext
10.86
4.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
38%
On target shareContext
33%
7.14
Shots in the boxContext
5.71
63%
Box shareContext
51%
7%
ConversionContext
4%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.50
15.71
Shots allowedContext
9.86
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.57
BlocksContext
4.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
64%
Save rateContext
58%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
345
PassesContext
386
279
Accurate passesContext
306
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.68
13.71
FoulsContext
15.14
11.29
Fouls sufferedContext
13.71
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
40%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.80
ShotsContext
10.00
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
36%
On target shareContext
35%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
64%
Box shareContext
57%
5%
ConversionContext
10%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.33
14.70
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
3.22
BlocksContext
4.25
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
67%
Save rateContext
63%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
365
PassesContext
378
298
Accurate passesContext
299
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.10
FoulsContext
15.20
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Torino
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genoa
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel124 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Torino |
Genoa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 124 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.3 | 3.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Torino
Confirmed XI
1A. Paleari(G)
23Saúl Coco
13G. Maripán
61A. Tamèze
34C. Biraghi
32K. Asllani
22C. Casadei
16M. Pedersen
10N. Vlašić
18G. Simeone
19C. Adams
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1N. Leali(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
20S. Sabelli
77M. Ellertsson
73P. Masini
32M. Frendrup
15B. Norton-Cuffy
2M. Thorsby
17R. Malinovskyi
21J. Ekhator
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Torino
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genoa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Torino+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Genoa-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Torino · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Genoa · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Torino | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Lazio | D 3–3 A | L 0–3 H |
| Parma | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Torino wins3 draws1 Genoa wins
Goals per game0.83 – 0.67
Over 2.517%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 8 Feb 2025Torino1–1Genoa
- 7 Dec 2024Genoa0–0Torino
- 13 Jan 2024Genoa0–0Torino
- 3 Sep 2023Torino1–0Genoa
- 18 Mar 2022Genoa1–0Torino
- 22 Oct 2021Torino3–2Genoa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Torino | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 0.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.86 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 1.71 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 43% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Torino | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 0.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.86 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 1.71 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 43% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Torino | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 6.25 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.25 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 3.57 | 5.43 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Torino | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 2.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 7.60 | |
| Match total | 9.12 | 10.20 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.80 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Bonacina 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.77
Red cards0.20league 0.12
Cards 5+20%league 36%
Fouls24.8league 25.7
Penalties0.40league 0.27
Home wins40%league 37%
Torino3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D6 Apr 25H · Verona1–12
- W24 Jan 25H · Cagliari2–00
- W13 Dec 24A · Empoli1–03
GenoaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Torino7 games · scored 6 · conceded 13
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Genoa7 games · scored 3 · conceded 9
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
1
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 6 · conceded 18
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
7
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
