Torino vs Lazio – 1 Mar 2026

Serie A Gameweek 27 Sun, Mar 1 · 17:00 Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino

Torino 15th · 27 pts · 26 played LWDLL

2–0Full time

Lazio 10th · 34 pts · 26 played DWDLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lazio were slight favourites.

Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 31). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lazio. Torino had 7.2 days of rest, Lazio 7.9 and had to travel 526 km.

Away travel526 kmRest days7.2 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1

Torino30%

Draw29%

Lazio41%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.28

Torino32%

Draw27%

Lazio41%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.44

Torino29%

Draw29%

Lazio42%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.30

Torino24%

Draw28%

Lazio48%

Expected goals 0.95 – 1.43

Torino31%

Draw28%

Lazio41%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.40

Over 2.5 41% Both score 48% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Torino)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyRosario Abisso

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 49

Team strength

Torino

Lazio

31 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

39 AttackIn forecast 53

47 DefenceIn forecast 63

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Torino

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lazio

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Torino

Lazio

0.96 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.81 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.96

1.06 xGVia Att/Def 0.98

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.02

65% Scored inContext 50%

35% Clean sheetsContext 46%

11.46 ShotsContext 11.00

4.12 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.04

36% On target shareContext 35%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.72

66% Box shareContext 58%

8% ConversionContext 9%

1.96 OffsidesContext 1.46

13.50 Shots allowedContext 13.35

4.19 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.19

3.85 BlocksContext 3.50

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.27

60% Save rateContext 78%

44% PossessionIn forecast 50%

363 PassesContext 475

288 Accurate passesContext 408

79% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.86

13.88 FoulsContext 10.42

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.31

1.88 Yellow cardsContext 2.04

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.15

This league season, per match · 26 and 26 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.94 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

60% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.50 ShotsContext 11.00

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

36% On target shareContext 30%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.56

67% Box shareContext 56%

8% ConversionContext 8%

2.20 OffsidesContext 1.67

13.30 Shots allowedContext 13.90

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.30 BlocksContext 4.30

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

58% Save rateContext 65%

45% PossessionIn forecast 50%

376 PassesContext 482

297 Accurate passesContext 417

79% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.80

14.00 FoulsContext 9.90

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Torino

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km248 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lazio

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel526 km824 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Torino	Lazio
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Feb	7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	526 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	248 km	824 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.1	8.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Torino Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1A. Paleari(G)

77E. Ebosse 44A. Ismajli 23Saúl Coco

33Rafael Obrador 10N. Vlašić 4M. Prati 66G. Gineitis 20V. Lazaro

91D. Zapata 18G. Simeone

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Lazio Confirmed XI

4-3-3

94I. Provedel(G)

3L. Pellegrini 25Oliver Provstgaard 13A. Romagnoli 77A. Marušić

24K. Taylor 32D. Cataldi 21R. Belahyane

10M. Zaccagni 20P. Ratkov 22M. Cancellieri

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Torino Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lazio Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Torino+0.9 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Lazio-1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Torino · Home 1.08points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-7
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.69

Lazio · Away 1.15points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 3-6-4
Scored: 0.62
Conceded: 0.69

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Torino	Lazio
Genoa	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H	W 3–2 HW 3–0 A
Bologna	L 1–2 HD 0–0 A	D 1–1 H
Fiorentina	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H	D 2–2 H
Lecce	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H
Como	L 0–6 AL 1–5 H	L 0–3 HL 0–2 A
AS Roma	L 0–2 HW 1–0 A	L 0–1 H
Atalanta	L 0–2 AL 0–3 H	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A
Udinese	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
Verona	W 3–0 A	W 1–0 AW 4–0 H
Cagliari	L 1–2 H	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H
Sassuolo	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 A
Cremonese	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 H
AC Milan	L 2–3 H	L 0–1 A
Juventus	D 0–0 A	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H
Pisa	D 2–2 H	D 0–0 A
Napoli	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 H
Parma	L 1–2 A	W 1–0 A
Inter	L 0–5 A	L 0–2 A
Points	26 of 75 · 1.04 per game	33 of 75 · 1.32 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 Torino wins5 draws3 Lazio wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.44 Over 2.522% Both scored56% Clean sheets22% · 33%

4 Oct 2025Lazio3–3Torino
31 Mar 2025Lazio1–1Torino
29 Sep 2024Torino2–3Lazio
22 Feb 2024Torino0–2Lazio
27 Sep 2023Lazio2–0Torino
22 Apr 2023Lazio0–1Torino

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Torino	Lazio	Forecast
Scored per game	0.96	1.00
Conceded per game	1.81	0.96
Match goals	2.77	1.96	2.34
Over 1.5	69%	58%
Over 2.5	62%	27%	41%
Over 3.5	27%	19%
Both teams scored	42%	23%	48%
Clean sheets	35%	46%
Failed to score	35%	50%
Games	26	26

	Torino	Lazio	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	0.90
Conceded per game	2.10	1.40
Match goals	3.00	2.30	2.34
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	41%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	48%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	40%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Torino	Lazio	League
Corners
Corners won	3.75	4.04
Corners conceded	4.33	3.70
Match total	8.08	7.74	8.75
Over 8.5	38% 9/24	43% 10/23
Over 9.5	38% 9/24	26% 6/23
Over 10.5	33% 8/24	9% 2/23
Cards
Cards	1.96	2.27
Opponent cards	1.38	2.81
Match total	3.34	5.08	3.96
Over 3.5	50% 13/26	73% 19/26
Over 4.5	19% 5/26	65% 17/26

	Torino	Lazio	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	3.70
Corners conceded	4.00	3.80
Match total	7.50	7.50	8.75
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.60
Opponent cards	1.00	2.70
Match total	3.30	5.30	3.96
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Rosario Abisso Italy · 49 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.29league 3.78

Red cards0.31league 0.20

Cards 5+49%league 37%

Fouls25.0league 25.2

Penalties0.35league 0.31

Home wins27%league 38%

Torino5 with this referee

Record1-4-0 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.2 Pens for · against2 · 3

D31 Aug 25H · Fiorentina0–02
D24 Nov 24H · Monza1–11
W30 Oct 22H · AC Milan2–15
D27 Apr 22A · Atalanta4–42
D23 Sep 21H · Lazio1–13

Lazio5 with this referee

Record3-2-0 Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.2 Pens for · against3 · 0

D23 Sep 23H · Monza1–12
W19 Feb 23A · Salernitana2–01
W23 Oct 22A · Atalanta2–02
W15 Jan 22A · Salernitana3–03
D23 Sep 21A · Torino1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.