Torino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were slight favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 39). Absences weigh more on Napoli. Torino had 14.1 days of rest, Napoli 13 and had to travel 711 km.
Away travel711 kmRest days14.1 · 13Matches / 14d0 · 1
Torino24%
Draw27%
Napoli49%
Torino24%
Draw25%
Napoli51%
Torino23%
Draw27%
Napoli50%
Torino19%
Draw25%
Napoli57%
Torino25%
Draw25%
Napoli50%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marcenaro
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 38
Team strength
Torino
Napoli
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
74
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
60
39
AttackIn forecast
61
47
DefenceIn forecast
70
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNapoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TorinoNapoli
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
50%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.50
ShotsContext
15.50
4.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
42%
On target shareContext
39%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.67
62%
Box shareContext
69%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.67
Shots allowedContext
10.50
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
3.50
BlocksContext
3.17
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
57%
Save rateContext
67%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
356
PassesContext
559
290
Accurate passesContext
493
81%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.91
14.50
FoulsContext
13.17
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
-0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
40%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.50
ShotsContext
13.10
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
35%
On target shareContext
37%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.89
63%
Box shareContext
67%
5%
ConversionContext
12%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.57
13.20
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
2.89
BlocksContext
3.20
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
64%
Save rateContext
74%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
379
PassesContext
523
312
Accurate passesContext
461
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.96
12.80
FoulsContext
12.80
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Torino
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Napoli
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel711 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Torino |
Napoli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 13Serie A 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 711 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Torino
Confirmed XI
81F. Israel(G)
25N. Nkounkou
23Saúl Coco
13G. Maripán
61A. Tamèze
16M. Pedersen
10N. Vlašić
32K. Asllani
22C. Casadei
19C. Adams
18G. Simeone
Napoli
Confirmed XI
32V. Milinković-Savić(G)
17M. Olivera
5Juan Jesus
31S. Beukema
22G. Di Lorenzo
6B. Gilmour
37L. Spinazzola
11K. De Bruyne
99F. Anguissa
7David Neres
27L. Lucca
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Torino
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Napoli
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Torino+1.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Napoli-1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Torino · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Napoli · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Torino | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | D 0–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Torino wins1 draws6 Napoli wins
Goals per game0.63 – 1.63
Over 2.538%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets13% · 63%
- 27 Apr 2025Napoli2–0Torino
- 1 Dec 2024Torino0–1Napoli
- 8 Mar 2024Napoli1–1Torino
- 7 Jan 2024Torino3–0Napoli
- 19 Mar 2023Torino0–4Napoli
- 1 Oct 2022Napoli3–1Torino
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Torino | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Torino | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Torino | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 8.60 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 0.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 2.83 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Torino | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 8.67 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 2.80 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marcenaro Italy · 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.89league 3.65
Red cards0.37league 0.13
Cards 5+66%league 35%
Fouls23.6league 26.2
Penalties0.24league 0.24
Home wins47%league 37%
Torino4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L13 Apr 25A · Como0–13
- L5 Oct 24A · Inter2–33
- W30 Aug 24A · Venezia1–04
- D28 Jan 23A · Empoli2–20
Napoli5 with this referee
Record2-3-0
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W16 Dec 23H · Cagliari2–15
- W19 Aug 23A · Frosinone3–13
- D28 May 23A · Bologna2–23
- D30 Apr 23H · Salernitana1–12
- D31 Aug 22H · Lecce1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Torino6 games · scored 5 · conceded 13
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Napoli6 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 6 · conceded 19
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
6
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
