Torino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Torino were clear favourites.
Torino were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 15). Torino had 3.8 days of rest, Pisa 2.8 and had to travel 264 km.
Away travel264 kmRest days3.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Torino62%
Draw23%
Pisa15%
Torino65%
Draw21%
Pisa14%
Torino62%
Draw24%
Pisa15%
Torino55%
Draw26%
Pisa19%
Torino65%
Draw21%
Pisa14%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAlberto Ruben Arena
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 5
Team strength
Torino
Pisa
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
39
AttackIn forecast
15
47
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TorinoPisa
0.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.56
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
56%
Scored inContext
33%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.33
ShotsContext
9.22
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.57
38%
On target shareContext
22%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.63
62%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
6%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.43
14.33
Shots allowedContext
16.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.22
BlocksContext
4.75
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
66%
Save rateContext
73%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
349
PassesContext
311
280
Accurate passesContext
241
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.73
14.22
FoulsContext
13.89
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.89
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.56
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
50%
Scored inContext
33%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.30
ShotsContext
9.22
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.57
38%
On target shareContext
22%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.63
60%
Box shareContext
63%
7%
ConversionContext
6%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.43
14.40
Shots allowedContext
16.00
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.10
BlocksContext
4.75
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
65%
Save rateContext
73%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
356
PassesContext
311
289
Accurate passesContext
241
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.73
14.30
FoulsContext
13.89
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.89
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Torino
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km590 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Pisa
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel264 km435 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Torino |
Pisa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Oct | 2.8Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 264 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 590 km | 435 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Torino
Confirmed XI
1A. Paleari(G)
23Saúl Coco
13G. Maripán
44A. Ismajli
20V. Lazaro
10N. Vlašić
8I. Ilić
22C. Casadei
16M. Pedersen
18G. Simeone
19C. Adams
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
7M. Léris
5S. Canestrelli
4A. Caracciolo
33A. Calabresi
15I. Touré
14E. Akinsanmiro
8M. Højholt
21İ. Vural
9H. Meister
32S. Moreo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Torino
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Pisa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Torino+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Pisa+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Torino · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Pisa · Away
0.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Torino | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna | D 0–0 A | L 0–4 A |
| Napoli | W 1–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Lazio | D 3–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| Atalanta | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Fiorentina | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 9 of 18 · 1.50 per game | 3 of 18 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Torino | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 0.56 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.44 | 1.89 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 56% | 44% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 33% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 67% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Torino | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 0.56 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.44 | 1.89 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 56% | 44% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 33% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 67% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Torino | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.29 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 8.78 | 8.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 1.44 | |
| Match total | 3.78 | 3.22 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 4/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Torino | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 8.63 | 8.78 | 8.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.44 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.22 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alberto Ruben Arena Italy · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.90
Red cards0.00league 0.12
Cards 5+0%league 38%
Fouls22.4league 25.9
Penalties0.00league 0.29
Home wins20%league 37%
TorinoNo previous matches with this referee.
Pisa1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 Aug 25A · Atalanta1–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Torino9 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Pisa9 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Pisa9 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
