Torino vs Udinese – 7 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 19 Wed, Jan 7 · 19:45 Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino

Torino 11th · 23 pts · 18 played LWWLW

1–2Full time

Udinese 12th · 22 pts · 18 played LWLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Torino were slight favourites.

Torino were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 29). Torino had 3.1 days of rest, Udinese 4.3 and had to travel 446 km.

Away travel446 kmRest days3.1 · 4.3Matches / 14d2 · 2

Torino48%

Draw28%

Udinese24%

Expected goals 1.48 – 0.97

Torino50%

Draw26%

Udinese24%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.08

Torino48%

Draw28%

Udinese24%

Expected goals 1.48 – 0.97

Torino41%

Draw29%

Udinese30%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.08

Torino50%

Draw26%

Udinese24%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.08

Over 2.5 44% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Torino)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyFabio Maresca

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 68

Team strength

Torino

Udinese

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

39 AttackIn forecast 22

47 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Torino

Attack—

Defense risk—

Udinese

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Torino

Udinese

1.11 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.56 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.61

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

72% Scored inContext 78%

44% Clean sheetsContext 22%

12.39 ShotsContext 11.89

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.88

36% On target shareContext 31%

7.83 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

64% Box shareContext 58%

9% ConversionContext 8%

1.73 OffsidesContext 1.77

12.94 Shots allowedContext 12.33

3.94 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.19

3.39 BlocksContext 3.44

2.69 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

63% Save rateContext 60%

45% PossessionIn forecast 46%

364 PassesContext 354

290 Accurate passesContext 285

80% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.77

13.44 FoulsContext 13.78

11.06 Fouls sufferedContext 11.56

1.78 Yellow cardsContext 1.94

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 0.94

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

80% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.90 ShotsContext 11.90

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

34% On target shareContext 30%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

64% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 7%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.86

11.50 Shots allowedContext 13.30

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.75

3.40 BlocksContext 4.50

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

63% Save rateContext 61%

45% PossessionIn forecast 44%

366 PassesContext 336

287 Accurate passesContext 266

79% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.71

13.30 FoulsContext 14.90

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Torino

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Udinese

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel446 km645 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Torino	Udinese
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Jan	4.3Serie A 2025-2026, 3 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	446 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	524 km	645 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Torino Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1A. Paleari(G)

23Saúl Coco 13G. Maripán 44A. Ismajli

7Z. Aboukhlal 22C. Casadei 6E. İlkhan 10N. Vlašić 20V. Lazaro

92A. Njie 18G. Simeone

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Udinese Confirmed XI

4-4-2

40M. Okoye(G)

11H. Kamara 28O. Solet 27C. Kabasele 31T. Kristensen

32J. Ekkelenkamp 8J. Karlström 38L. Miller 59A. Zanoli

9K. Davis 10N. Zaniolo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Torino Absences are shown before kick-off

Udinese Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Torino+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Udinese+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Torino · Home 1.22points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-4
Scored: 1.11
Conceded: 1.78

Udinese · Away 1.11points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-5
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.78

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Torino	Udinese
Verona	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 H
Cagliari	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 H
Sassuolo	W 1–0 A	L 1–3 A
Cremonese	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
AC Milan	L 2–3 H	L 0–3 H
Lecce	L 1–2 A	W 3–2 H
Como	L 1–5 H	L 0–1 A
Juventus	D 0–0 A	L 1–3 A
Pisa	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 A
Bologna	D 0–0 A	L 0–3 H
Genoa	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 H
Napoli	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 H
Lazio	D 3–3 A	D 1–1 H
Parma	L 1–2 A	W 2–0 A
Atalanta	L 0–3 H	W 1–0 H
AS Roma	W 1–0 A	L 0–2 A
Fiorentina	D 0–0 H	L 1–5 A
Inter	L 0–5 A	W 2–1 A
Points	23 of 54 · 1.28 per game	22 of 54 · 1.22 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Torino wins2 draws1 Udinese wins

Goals per game1.50 – 0.88 Over 2.538% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 13%

23 Apr 2025Torino2–0Udinese
29 Dec 2024Udinese2–2Torino
16 Mar 2024Udinese0–2Torino
23 Dec 2023Torino1–1Udinese
5 Feb 2023Torino1–0Udinese
23 Oct 2022Udinese1–2Torino

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Torino	Udinese	Forecast
Scored per game	1.11	1.00
Conceded per game	1.56	1.61
Match goals	2.67	2.61	2.45
Over 1.5	61%	78%
Over 2.5	61%	44%	44%
Over 3.5	28%	22%
Both teams scored	44%	56%	49%
Clean sheets	44%	22%
Failed to score	28%	22%
Games	18	18

	Torino	Udinese	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.80
Conceded per game	1.40	1.70
Match goals	2.60	2.50	2.45
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	44%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	49%
Clean sheets	50%	30%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Torino	Udinese	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	4.53
Corners conceded	4.38	4.24
Match total	8.63	8.77	8.85
Over 8.5	44% 7/16	41% 7/17
Over 9.5	44% 7/16	35% 6/17
Over 10.5	38% 6/16	35% 6/17
Cards
Cards	1.83	2.00
Opponent cards	1.50	1.61
Match total	3.33	3.61	3.99
Over 3.5	56% 10/18	56% 10/18
Over 4.5	22% 4/18	28% 5/18

	Torino	Udinese	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	4.50
Corners conceded	3.60	3.50
Match total	7.80	8.00	8.85
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.80
Opponent cards	1.30	1.70
Match total	3.10	3.50	3.99
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Fabio Maresca Italy · 68 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.12league 3.86

Red cards0.16league 0.17

Cards 5+66%league 37%

Fouls24.9league 25.8

Penalties0.19league 0.30

Home wins35%league 38%

Torino2 with this referee

Record0-2-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

D17 Aug 24A · AC Milan2–25
D13 Apr 24H · Juventus0–03

Udinese7 with this referee

Record3-2-2 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.1 Pens for · against1 · 2

L8 Dec 25H · Genoa1–21
D28 Apr 25H · Bologna0–03
W1 Mar 25H · Parma1–01
L20 Jan 24H · AC Milan2–36
D3 Dec 23H · Verona3–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.