Tottenham vs Bournemouth

Premier League Gameweek 17 Sat, Dec 26 · 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

Tottenham 16th · 6 pts · 7 played DDLDW

VS— Compare

Bournemouth 15th · 6 pts · 7 played DDLLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel151 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Tottenham—%

Draw—%

Bournemouth—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (London)

Forecast from 11 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Alert Bournemouth 1.6 Goals conceded per match Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals conceded · W/D/L colours

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Tottenham

Bournemouth

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

56 AttackIn forecast 83

74 DefenceIn forecast 82

58 Form indexContext 74

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Tottenham

Bournemouth

0.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

1.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.86

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.81

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.52

43% Scored inContext 86%

29% Clean sheetsContext 14%

14.14 ShotsContext 15.14

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.14

27% On target shareContext 34%

8.57 Shots in the boxContext 9.57

60% Box shareContext 64%

6% ConversionContext 9%

2.86 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.14 Shots allowedContext 9.57

3.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

4.00 BlocksContext 2.80

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

63% Save rateContext 55%

61% PossessionIn forecast 52%

535 PassesContext 433

470 Accurate passesContext 351

88% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.80

13.86 FoulsContext 13.00

13.71 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.29 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.82

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

60% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.40 ShotsContext 15.80

3.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

24% On target shareContext 32%

9.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.60

67% Box shareContext 62%

6% ConversionContext 10%

2.44 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.90 Shots allowedContext 10.30

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

3.40 BlocksContext 3.29

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86

64% Save rateContext 61%

59% PossessionIn forecast 53%

510 PassesContext 434

443 Accurate passesContext 353

87% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.86

14.20 FoulsContext 12.20

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Tottenham DDLDW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,071 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 58 · 6 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected

W19 OctH · Coventry3–11.8 xPts
D10 OctA · Manchester United1–10.7 xPts
L19 SepH · Aston Villa2–31.3 xPts
D12 SepH · Everton0–01.4 xPts
D5 SepA · Nottingham Forest0–00.9 xPts

Bournemouth WLLWW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel151 km301 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 74 · 9 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected

W18 OctH · Sunderland2–01.8 xPts
W15 OctH · Sturm Graz3–02.3 xPts
L10 OctA · Chelsea1–51.3 xPts
L20 SepH · Liverpool0–11.6 xPts
W17 SepA · Real Sociedad2–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Tottenham	Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2026-2027, 19 Dec	7Premier League 2026-2027, 19 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	151 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,071 km	301 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	3.2	4.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Tottenham Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Coventry (H) 3–1, 19 Oct

31A. Kinský(G)

3A. Robertson 37M. van de Ven 4T. Adarabioyo 6J. van Hecke

16S. Tonali 14A. Gray

22O. Marmoush 10J. Maddison 20M. Kudus

19D. Solanke

Bournemouth Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Sunderland (H) 2–0, 18 Oct

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith

10R. Christie 12T. Adams

16M. Tavernier 4L. Cook 37Rayan

9Evanilson

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Tottenham Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Bournemouth Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Tottenham · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.50

Bournemouth · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Tottenham	Bournemouth
Everton	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 H
Newcastle	L 0–2 H	D 2–2 A
Brentford	L 0–3 A	D 2–2 H
Points	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Tottenham wins1 draws4 Bournemouth wins

Goals per game1.75 – 1.63 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets13% · 25%

7 Jan 2026Bournemouth3–2Tottenham
30 Aug 2025Tottenham0–1Bournemouth
9 Mar 2025Tottenham2–2Bournemouth
5 Dec 2024Bournemouth1–0Tottenham
31 Dec 2023Tottenham3–1Bournemouth
26 Aug 2023Bournemouth0–2Tottenham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Tottenham	Bournemouth
Scored per game	0.86	1.29
Conceded per game	1.43	1.86
Match goals	2.29	3.14
Over 1.5	71%	86%
Over 2.5	43%	57%
Over 3.5	29%	43%
Both teams scored	43%	71%
Clean sheets	29%	14%
Failed to score	57%	14%
Games	7	7

	Tottenham	Bournemouth
Scored per game	0.90	1.50
Conceded per game	1.30	1.50
Match goals	2.20	3.00
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	60%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	70%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	40%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Tottenham	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	6.57	4.71
Corners conceded	4.43	3.86
Match total	11.00	8.57	9.49
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	29% 2/7
Over 9.5	71% 5/7	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	57% 4/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.43	3.00
Opponent cards	2.29	1.57
Match total	3.72	4.57	4.17
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	57% 4/7

	Tottenham	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	7.10	4.60
Corners conceded	4.30	4.60
Match total	11.40	9.20	9.49
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.80
Opponent cards	2.30	1.80
Match total	4.20	4.60	4.17
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.