Premier League Gameweek 17 Sat, Dec 26 · 20:00 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
Newcastle 11th · 8 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Manchester City 1st · 21 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel171 kmRest days7.2 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Newcastle—%
Draw—%
Manchester City—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

Forecast from 11 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Newcastle and Manchester City. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

NewcastleManchester City
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
71 Current StrengthIn forecast 91
61 AttackIn forecast 92
61 DefenceIn forecast 82
35 Form indexContext 93
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—
Defense risk—

Manchester City

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NewcastleManchester City
1.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.71
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.19 xGVia Att/Def 2.20
1.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42
+0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.51
86% Scored inContext 100%
14% Clean sheetsContext 43%
12.29 ShotsContext 14.57
3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.29
29% On target shareContext 36%
7.57 Shots in the boxContext 10.57
62% Box shareContext 70%
12% ConversionContext 19%
2.71 OffsidesContext 2.17
17.43 Shots allowedContext 11.43
5.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.14
7.57 BlocksContext 3.00
3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
62% Save rateContext 72%
52% PossessionIn forecast 64%
430 PassesContext 635
359 Accurate passesContext 567
84% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.75 Team ratingContext 7.23
12.14 FoulsContext 10.71
11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 14.57
2.71 Yellow cardsContext 1.29
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.19 xGVia Att/Def 2.16
1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
+0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.24
80% Scored inContext 100%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
12.40 ShotsContext 16.50
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
32% On target shareContext 36%
7.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.60
59% Box shareContext 69%
11% ConversionContext 15%
2.44 OffsidesContext 1.89
17.50 Shots allowedContext 11.20
5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.89
6.90 BlocksContext 2.50
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
68% Save rateContext 68%
53% PossessionIn forecast 62%
452 PassesContext 606
380 Accurate passesContext 541
84% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.80 Team ratingContext 7.10
11.00 FoulsContext 11.00
11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km795 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 35 · 4 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -3.3 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Aston Villa0–11.2 xPts
  • L12 OctA · Coventry1–41.5 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Hull City2–12.0 xPts
  • L14 SepA · Leeds1–41.1 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Bournemouth2–21.5 xPts
Manchester City
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel171 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 93 · 12 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Ipswich3–22.5 xPts
  • L14 OctH · Paris Saint Germain2–41.9 xPts
  • W11 OctA · Liverpool3–01.5 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Sunderland5–32.3 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Manchester United1–01.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Newcastle Manchester City
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.2Premier League 2026-2027, 19 Dec7.2Premier League 2026-2027, 19 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km171 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways795 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 50 / 1 / 6
Next matchdays after this one43

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Aston Villa (H) 0–1, 17 Oct
21L. Horníček(G)
3L. Hall 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 67L. Miley
7Joelinton 6Nico González
11H. Barnes 28J. Willock 20M. Fernandez-Pardo
9Y. Wissa
Manchester City Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Ipswich (H) 3–2, 17 Oct
1G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly 6A. Guéhi 3Rúben Dias 27M. Nunes
32A. Bouaddi 8M. Kovačić
11J. Doku 47P. Foden 7I. Ndiaye
9E. Haaland

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Newcastle Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Manchester City Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.50
Manchester City · Away 3.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
2.67
Conceded
0.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentNewcastleManchester City
Coventry L 1–4 A W 1–0 H
Bournemouth D 2–2 H W 2–1 H
Liverpool D 2–2 H W 3–0 A
Points2 of 9 · 0.67 per game9 of 9 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 13 meetings

1 Newcastle wins2 draws7 Manchester City wins
Goals per game0.90 – 2.40 Over 2.560% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%
  • 21 Feb 2026Manchester City2–1Newcastle
  • 22 Nov 2025Newcastle2–1Manchester City
  • 15 Feb 2025Manchester City4–0Newcastle
  • 28 Sep 2024Newcastle1–1Manchester City
  • 16 Mar 2024Manchester City2–0Newcastle
  • 13 Jan 2024Newcastle2–3Manchester City

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

NewcastleManchester CityForecast
Scored per game 1.432.71
Conceded per game 2.001.00
Match goals 3.433.71
Over 1.5 86%71%
Over 2.5 71%71%
Over 3.5 57%43%
Both teams scored 71%57%
Clean sheets 14%43%
Failed to score 14%0%
Games77
NewcastleManchester CityForecast
Scored per game 1.402.40
Conceded per game 1.801.30
Match goals 3.203.70
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 60%70%
Over 3.5 50%40%
Both teams scored 70%60%
Clean sheets 10%40%
Failed to score 20%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

NewcastleManchester CityLeague
Corners
Corners won4.575.57
Corners conceded5.294.14
Match total9.869.719.49
Over 8.557% 4/771% 5/7
Over 9.543% 3/757% 4/7
Over 10.529% 2/757% 4/7
Cards
Cards2.711.43
Opponent cards2.141.86
Match total4.853.294.17
Over 3.557% 4/729% 2/7
Over 4.557% 4/714% 1/7
NewcastleManchester CityLeague
Corners
Corners won4.806.40
Corners conceded4.603.70
Match total9.4010.109.49
Over 8.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 9.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 10.530% 3/1060% 6/10
Cards
Cards2.201.50
Opponent cards2.201.50
Match total4.403.004.17
Over 3.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Over 4.540% 4/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Newcastle7 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3 2 0-15
16-30
1 5 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
2 3 76-90
Manchester City7 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
5 1 76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
4 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 5 31-45
1 3 46-60
5 2 61-75
2 5 76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
1 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
2 2 31-45
6 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Aston Villa Leeds Dec 2612:30 Fulham Brighton Dec 2615:00 Everton Sunderland Dec 2615:00 Tottenham Bournemouth Dec 2615:00 Ipswich Brentford Dec 2615:00 Hull City Liverpool Dec 2617:30 Newcastle Manchester City Dec 2620:00 Coventry Chelsea Dec 2714:00 Manchester United Nottingham Forest Dec 2716:30 Crystal Palace Arsenal Dec 2719:00