Tottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 73). Tottenham had 6 days of rest, Chelsea 7.1 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days6 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Tottenham36%
Draw26%
Chelsea39%
Tottenham36%
Draw27%
Chelsea37%
Tottenham36%
Draw26%
Chelsea38%
Tottenham29%
Draw25%
Chelsea47%
Tottenham36%
Draw27%
Chelsea38%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeJarred Gillett
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 92
Team strength
Tottenham
Chelsea
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
56
AttackIn forecast
77
74
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisChelsea
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TottenhamChelsea
1.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.89
0.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.78
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
89%
Scored inContext
89%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.44
ShotsContext
13.67
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
35%
On target shareContext
37%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.78
70%
Box shareContext
66%
18%
ConversionContext
14%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.00
Shots allowedContext
10.89
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
2.75
BlocksContext
3.00
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
84%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
436
PassesContext
537
369
Accurate passesContext
468
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.01
Team ratingContext
7.03
11.44
FoulsContext
11.44
9.22
Fouls sufferedContext
12.44
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
2.11
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.22
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
80%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.40
ShotsContext
13.10
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
30%
On target shareContext
39%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
66%
Box shareContext
62%
16%
ConversionContext
15%
2.30
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.50
Shots allowedContext
10.20
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
3.67
BlocksContext
2.70
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
80%
Save rateContext
63%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
434
PassesContext
519
368
Accurate passesContext
455
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.67
FoulsContext
11.70
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tottenham
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Chelsea
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tottenham |
Chelsea |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Premier League 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 573 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
1G. Vicario(G)
24D. Spence
37M. van de Ven
4K. Danso
23Pedro Porro
30R. Bentancur
6João Palhinha
15L. Bergvall
29P. Sarr
20M. Kudus
39R. Kolo Muani
Chelsea
Confirmed XI
1Robert Sánchez(G)
3Marc Cucurella
23T. Chalobah
29W. Fofana
27M. Gusto
25M. Caicedo
24R. James
49A. Garnacho
8E. Fernández
7Pedro Neto
20João Pedro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tottenham
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Chelsea
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tottenham-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Chelsea+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Tottenham · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Chelsea · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 2.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Tottenham | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton | D 2–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| West Ham | W 3–0 A | W 5–1 A |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
1 Tottenham wins2 draws7 Chelsea wins
Goals per game0.80 – 1.90
Over 2.540%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets20% · 60%
- 3 Apr 2025Chelsea1–0Tottenham
- 8 Dec 2024Tottenham3–4Chelsea
- 2 May 2024Chelsea2–0Tottenham
- 6 Nov 2023Tottenham1–4Chelsea
- 26 Feb 2023Tottenham2–0Chelsea
- 14 Aug 2022Chelsea2–2Tottenham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tottenham | Chelsea | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.89 | 1.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.78 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.11 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 78% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 67% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Tottenham | Chelsea | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.89 | 1.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.78 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.11 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 78% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 67% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tottenham | Chelsea | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 6.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 12.50 | 10.44 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 6/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.89 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.44 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 4.66 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Tottenham | Chelsea | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 11.56 | 9.33 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 5.50 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jarred Gillett 92 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.64league 3.51
Red cards0.11league 0.12
Cards 5+37%league 38%
Fouls20.1league 21.8
Penalties0.22league 0.19
Home wins40%league 51%
Tottenham11 with this referee
Record6-0-5
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- W13 Sep 25A · West Ham3–01
- L26 Feb 25H · Manchester City0–13
- W2 Feb 25A · Brentford2–01
- L15 Sep 24H · Arsenal0–15
- W11 May 24H · Burnley2–13
Chelsea6 with this referee
Record1-4-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- D1 Sep 24H · Crystal Palace1–14
- W4 Apr 24H · Manchester United4–33
- D2 Mar 24A · Brentford2–21
- L24 Sep 23H · Aston Villa0–13
- D28 May 23H · Newcastle1–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tottenham9 games · scored 17 · conceded 7
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Chelsea9 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
3
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
