Tottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Tottenham
16th · 30 pts · 30 played
LLLLD
0–3Full time
Nottingham Forest
17th · 29 pts · 30 played
DLLDD
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Nottingham Forest. Tottenham had 6.9 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 2.9 and had to travel 175 km.
Away travel175 kmRest days6.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
Tottenham40%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest35%
Tottenham44%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest30%
Tottenham40%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest34%
Tottenham32%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest43%
Tottenham39%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest35%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 200
Team strength
TottenhamNottingham Forest
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
56
AttackIn forecast
68
74
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TottenhamNottingham Forest
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.93
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
83%
Scored inContext
53%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
11.07
ShotsContext
12.80
3.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
35%
On target shareContext
30%
7.79
Shots in the boxContext
7.63
68%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.17
13.00
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.27
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
3.66
BlocksContext
4.44
2.93
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.69
65%
Save rateContext
63%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
409
PassesContext
416
332
Accurate passesContext
343
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.60
FoulsContext
10.70
9.67
Fouls sufferedContext
11.72
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.53
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.55
90%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.00
ShotsContext
17.90
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
40%
On target shareContext
29%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
64%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
6%
1.13
OffsidesContext
2.89
15.50
Shots allowedContext
10.60
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
5.10
BlocksContext
3.33
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
57%
Save rateContext
66%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
386
PassesContext
429
313
Accurate passesContext
355
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.40
FoulsContext
11.20
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tottenham
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nottingham Forest
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel175 km1,484 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tottenham |
Nottingham Forest |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 19 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 175 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 573 km | 1,484 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.9 | 18.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
1G. Vicario(G)
37M. van de Ven
17C. Romero
4K. Danso
24D. Spence
11M. Tel
29P. Sarr
14A. Gray
23Pedro Porro
19D. Solanke
9Richarlison
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
3N. Williams
5Murillo
31N. Milenković
34T. Aina
8E. Anderson
6I. Sangaré
7C. Hudson-Odoi
10M. Gibbs-White
21O. Hutchinson
19Igor Jesus
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tottenham
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nottingham Forest
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tottenham-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nottingham Forest+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Tottenham · Home
0.67points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-9
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.67
Nottingham Forest · Away
1.00points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-8
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Tottenham | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Crystal Palace | L 1–3 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Fulham | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Arsenal | L 1–4 HL 1–4 A | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Newcastle | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Manchester United | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Manchester City | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Burnley | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| West Ham | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Bournemouth | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Brentford | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Chelsea | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Everton | W 3–0 A | L 0–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Leeds | W 2–1 A | L 1–3 AW 3–1 H |
| Wolves | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Brighton | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Points | 30 of 87 · 1.03 per game | 26 of 87 · 0.90 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Tottenham wins0 draws3 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game1.57 – 1.14
Over 2.557%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets29% · 29%
- 14 Dec 2025Nottingham Forest3–0Tottenham
- 21 Apr 2025Tottenham1–2Nottingham Forest
- 26 Dec 2024Nottingham Forest1–0Tottenham
- 7 Apr 2024Tottenham3–1Nottingham Forest
- 15 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest0–2Tottenham
- 11 Mar 2023Tottenham3–1Nottingham Forest
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.93 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.37 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 40% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 47% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.20 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 5.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.86 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 10.15 | 10.06 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 16/28 | 77% 23/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 14/28 | 60% 18/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 12/28 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.63 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.77 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.40 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 20/30 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 17/30 | 23% 7/30 | |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 6.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.51 | 10.20 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.10 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.79
Red cards0.13league 0.13
Cards 5+34%league 40%
Fouls22.3league 21.5
Penalties0.23league 0.21
Home wins43%league 42%
Tottenham14 with this referee
Record4-4-6
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 3
Reds4
- L7 Feb 26A · Manchester United0–23
- L23 Nov 25A · Arsenal1–43
- W16 Aug 25H · Burnley3–00
- D4 May 25A · West Ham1–12
- L28 Apr 24H · Arsenal2–32
Nottingham Forest13 with this referee
Record4-2-7
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.4
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D17 Jan 26H · Arsenal0–01
- L30 Dec 25H · Everton0–21
- L30 Nov 25H · Brighton0–20
- W21 Dec 24A · Brentford2–04
- L4 Dec 24A · Manchester City0–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tottenham30 games · scored 40 · conceded 47
3
7
0-15
4
3
16-30
9
17
31-45
7
5
46-60
6
4
61-75
11
11
76-90
Nottingham Forest30 games · scored 28 · conceded 43
6
5
0-15
1
5
16-30
3
11
31-45
8
7
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
13
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
5
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
8
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
