Toulouse vs Auxerre – 1 Feb 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 20 Sun, Feb 1 · 16:15 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse

Toulouse 8th · 29 pts · 19 played WWLWW

0–0Full time

Auxerre 17th · 12 pts · 19 played WLLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Toulouse were slight favourites.

Toulouse were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 22). Toulouse had 7 days of rest, Auxerre 8.9 and had to travel 495 km.

Away travel495 kmRest days7 · 8.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Toulouse57%

Draw24%

Auxerre19%

Expected goals 1.77 – 0.92

Toulouse58%

Draw24%

Auxerre19%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.96

Toulouse57%

Draw25%

Auxerre19%

Expected goals 1.76 – 0.91

Toulouse49%

Draw26%

Auxerre24%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.03

Toulouse58%

Draw23%

Auxerre19%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.97

Over 2.5 50% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Toulouse)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceRomain Lissorgue

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 52

Team strength

Toulouse

Auxerre

42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

45 AttackIn forecast 39

49 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Toulouse

Attack—

Defense risk—

Auxerre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Toulouse

Auxerre

1.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.74

1.21 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.53

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.30

74% Scored inContext 47%

37% Clean sheetsContext 16%

12.00 ShotsContext 10.32

4.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.53

34% On target shareContext 31%

9.35 Shots in the boxContext 6.53

72% Box shareContext 61%

14% ConversionContext 7%

1.82 OffsidesContext 2.56

11.42 Shots allowedContext 11.26

3.72 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.58

3.56 BlocksContext 2.81

2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.21

66% Save rateContext 70%

41% PossessionIn forecast 44%

342 PassesContext 369

276 Accurate passesContext 299

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.73

14.11 FoulsContext 13.42

12.11 Fouls sufferedContext 14.16

2.21 Yellow cardsContext 2.11

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.16

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.10

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

+0.39 Goals minus xGContext -0.40

70% Scored inContext 30%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.80 ShotsContext 10.00

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

35% On target shareContext 32%

9.22 Shots in the boxContext 7.13

71% Box shareContext 66%

14% ConversionContext 7%

1.83 OffsidesContext 1.83

10.80 Shots allowedContext 10.80

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

2.50 BlocksContext 2.38

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

68% Save rateContext 67%

41% PossessionIn forecast 43%

351 PassesContext 374

285 Accurate passesContext 308

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.72

13.80 FoulsContext 13.30

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Toulouse

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,403 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Auxerre

Rest8.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel495 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Toulouse	Auxerre
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Jan	8.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 23 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	495 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,403 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Toulouse Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1G. Restes(G)

2R. Nicolaisen 4C. Cresswell 3M. McKenzie

15A. Dønnum 18Pape Diop 23C. Cásseres 19D. Sidibé

10G. Gboho 11S. Hidalgo

20Emersonn

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Auxerre Confirmed XI

4-3-3

16D. Léon(G)

14G. Mensah 92C. Akpa 20S. Diomandé 27L. Sy

5K. Danois 17O. El Azzouzi 42E. Owusu

10L. Sinayoko 19D. Namaso 28R. Faivre

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Toulouse Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Auxerre Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Toulouse+0.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Auxerre+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Toulouse · Home 1.50points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-3
Scored: 1.90
Conceded: 1.50

Auxerre · Away 0.22points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-7
Scored: 0.44
Conceded: 1.89

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Toulouse	Auxerre
Stade Brestois 29	W 2–0 AW 2–0 H	L 0–2 A
Nice	W 5–1 HW 1–0 A	L 1–3 A
Lens	L 0–3 H	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
Paris FC	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 A
Strasbourg	W 1–0 H	L 0–3 A
Marseille	D 2–2 A	L 0–1 H
Angers	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 A
Lorient	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
LE Havre	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 H
Rennes	D 2–2 H	D 2–2 A
Monaco	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 H
Metz	W 4–0 H	W 3–1 H
Lyon	W 2–1 A	D 0–0 H
Nantes	D 2–2 H	L 0–1 A
Lille	L 1–2 A	L 3–4 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 3–6 H	L 0–1 HL 0–2 A
Points	29 of 54 · 1.61 per game	9 of 54 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Toulouse wins2 draws1 Auxerre wins

Goals per game2.00 – 0.80 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets40% · 20%

21 Sep 2025Auxerre1–0Toulouse
9 Feb 2025Auxerre2–2Toulouse
1 Dec 2024Toulouse2–0Auxerre
27 May 2023Toulouse1–1Auxerre
11 Jan 2023Auxerre0–5Toulouse

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Toulouse	Auxerre	Forecast
Scored per game	1.63	0.74
Conceded per game	1.21	1.53
Match goals	2.84	2.26	2.68
Over 1.5	68%	58%
Over 2.5	53%	37%	50%
Over 3.5	32%	21%
Both teams scored	42%	37%	50%
Clean sheets	37%	16%
Failed to score	26%	53%
Games	19	19

	Toulouse	Auxerre	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	0.70
Conceded per game	1.00	1.60
Match goals	2.60	2.30	2.68
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	50%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	30%	50%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	30%	70%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Toulouse	Auxerre	League
Corners
Corners won	4.37	4.74
Corners conceded	5.32	4.37
Match total	9.69	9.11	9.16
Over 8.5	68% 13/19	47% 9/19
Over 9.5	63% 12/19	37% 7/19
Over 10.5	53% 10/19	32% 6/19
Cards
Cards	2.32	2.42
Opponent cards	2.11	2.74
Match total	4.43	5.16	3.96
Over 3.5	74% 14/19	74% 14/19
Over 4.5	47% 9/19	47% 9/19

	Toulouse	Auxerre	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	4.40
Corners conceded	5.20	4.20
Match total	9.80	8.60	9.16
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.10
Opponent cards	2.40	2.40
Match total	4.30	4.50	3.96
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Romain Lissorgue France · 52 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.69league 3.63

Red cards0.37league 0.31

Cards 5+38%league 35%

Fouls26.0league 24.3

Penalties0.35league 0.43

Home wins54%league 49%

Toulouse2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W10 Nov 24A · Rennes2–01
L10 Mar 24A · LE Havre0–11

Auxerre3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L13 Sep 25H · Monaco1–23
W9 Mar 25A · Reims2–01
W18 Aug 24H · Nice2–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.