Süper Lig Gameweek 26 Sun, Mar 21 · 12:00 Papara Park, Trabzon
Trabzonspor 4th · 16 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Rizespor 12th · 10 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel67 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Trabzonspor—%
Draw—%
Rizespor—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Trabzon)

Forecast from 6 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Trabzonspor and Rizespor. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

TrabzonsporRizespor
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
46 Current StrengthIn forecast 22
54 AttackIn forecast 22
48 DefenceIn forecast 35
78 Form indexContext 17
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Trabzonspor

Attack—
Defense risk—

Rizespor

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

TrabzonsporRizespor
2.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
0.63 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38
1.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.27
1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90
+0.67 Goals minus xGContext -0.27
88% Scored inContext 63%
50% Clean sheetsContext 25%
13.25 ShotsContext 15.00
6.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75
50% On target shareContext 32%
10.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
70% Box shareContext 57%
17% ConversionContext 7%
2.57 OffsidesContext 1.67
13.50 Shots allowedContext 13.50
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25
2.86 BlocksContext 4.43
4.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13
88% Save rateContext 74%
53% PossessionIn forecast 54%
430 PassesContext 434
365 Accurate passesContext 367
85% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.12 Team ratingContext 6.83
10.38 FoulsContext 10.25
16.13 Fouls sufferedContext 12.25
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.75
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70
1.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.36
1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03
+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.36
70% Scored inContext 60%
40% Clean sheetsContext 20%
13.25 ShotsContext 15.50
6.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70
50% On target shareContext 30%
10.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.80
70% Box shareContext 59%
17% ConversionContext 7%
2.57 OffsidesContext 1.71
13.50 Shots allowedContext 14.10
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
3.22 BlocksContext 4.44
4.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40
88% Save rateContext 71%
52% PossessionIn forecast 54%
430 PassesContext 433
365 Accurate passesContext 367
85% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.12 Team ratingContext 6.81
10.00 FoulsContext 9.90
16.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.30 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Trabzonspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 78 · 12 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected
  • W19 OctH · Besiktas2–01.3 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Samsunspor3–01.6 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Galatasaray4–00.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Konyaspor0–11.5 xPts
  • W6 SepH · Genclerbirligi5–01.9 xPts
Rizespor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel67 km1,940 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 17 · 4 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected
  • L16 OctA · Çorum FK1–21.0 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Fenerbahce0–30.9 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Goztepe2–21.3 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Eyüpspor2–01.5 xPts
  • L7 SepH · Alanyaspor0–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Trabzonspor Rizespor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 5
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 14 Mar7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 14 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km67 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,807 km1,940 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one1414

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Trabzonspor Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Besiktas (H) 2–0, 19 Oct
24A. Onana(G)
55Sidny Lopes Cabral 15S. Savić 27Chibuike Nwaiwu 20Wagner Pina
6Fabinho 11O. Tufan
58D. Şimşir 7E. Muçi 10Mohamed Salah
9F. Gluda Djú
Rizespor Last XI · not confirmed
4-1-4-1 · vs Çorum FK (A) 1–2, 16 Oct
75Y. Fofana(G)
17Z. Ariss 93M. Sagnan 21S. Bakayoko 54M. Pala
14T. Antalyalı
7V. Mihăilă 20Q. Laçi 10I. Olawoyin 11A. Awokoya-Mebude
9A. Sowe

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Trabzonspor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Rizespor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Trabzonspor · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
3.25
Conceded
0.25
Rizespor · Away 2.00points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
3-1-1
Scored
1.60
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentTrabzonsporRizespor
Samsunspor W 3–0 A L 0–2 H
Konyaspor L 0–1 A W 1–0 A
Points3 of 6 · 1.50 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Trabzonspor wins0 draws3 Rizespor wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.33 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets33% · 17%
  • 14 Mar 2026Trabzonspor1–0Rizespor
  • 18 Oct 2025Rizespor1–2Trabzonspor
  • 13 Apr 2025Trabzonspor2–0Rizespor
  • 9 Nov 2024Rizespor3–1Trabzonspor
  • 25 Jan 2024Rizespor1–0Trabzonspor
  • 26 Aug 2023Trabzonspor2–3Rizespor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

TrabzonsporRizesporForecast
Scored per game 2.251.00
Conceded per game 0.631.38
Match goals 2.882.38
Over 1.5 88%75%
Over 2.5 63%50%
Over 3.5 25%13%
Both teams scored 38%38%
Clean sheets 50%25%
Failed to score 13%38%
Games88
TrabzonsporRizesporForecast
Scored per game 1.801.00
Conceded per game 1.001.70
Match goals 2.802.70
Over 1.5 80%80%
Over 2.5 60%60%
Over 3.5 30%30%
Both teams scored 30%40%
Clean sheets 40%20%
Failed to score 30%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

TrabzonsporRizesporLeague
Corners
Corners won5.135.43
Corners conceded3.253.86
Match total8.389.299.12
Over 8.550% 4/843% 3/7
Over 9.513% 1/829% 2/7
Over 10.513% 1/829% 2/7
Cards
Cards2.131.88
Opponent cards2.881.38
Match total5.013.264.04
Over 3.575% 6/850% 4/8
Over 4.563% 5/825% 2/8
TrabzonsporRizesporLeague
Corners
Corners won5.205.78
Corners conceded4.003.67
Match total9.209.459.12
Over 8.560% 6/1056% 5/9
Over 9.530% 3/1033% 3/9
Over 10.530% 3/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.301.60
Opponent cards2.901.40
Match total5.203.004.04
Over 3.580% 8/1050% 5/10
Over 4.570% 7/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Trabzonspor8 games · scored 18 · conceded 5
5 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
5 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Rizespor8 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1 2 0-15
1 16-30
2 2 31-45
46-60
1 2 61-75
3 5 76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
5 1 0-15
3 3 16-30
5 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
2 2 76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1 2 0-15
2 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
1 46-60
1 3 61-75
3 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

View all fixtures →
Istanbul Basaksehir Besiktas Mar 2112:00 Fenerbahce Galatasaray Mar 2112:00 Genclerbirligi Konyaspor Mar 2112:00 Trabzonspor Rizespor Mar 2112:00 Kasimpasa Eyüpspor Mar 2112:00 Erzurumspor FK Gazişehir Gaziantep Mar 2112:00 Amed Samsunspor Mar 2112:00 Çorum FK Goztepe Mar 2112:00 Kocaelispor Alanyaspor Mar 2112:00