Twente vs Groningen – 22 Feb 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Feb 22 · 11:15 De Grolsch Veste, Enschede

Twente 7th · 35 pts · 23 played WDDWD

First leg1–1 2–1Full time

Groningen 8th · 31 pts · 23 played WLLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Twente were clear favourites.

Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Twente. Twente had 6.9 days of rest, Groningen 7.6 and had to travel 113 km.

Away travel113 kmRest days6.9 · 7.6Matches / 14d1 · 2

Twente66%

Draw19%

Groningen15%

Expected goals 2.35 – 1.03

Twente55%

Draw24%

Groningen21%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.01

Twente66%

Draw19%

Groningen15%

Expected goals 2.34 – 1.02

Twente59%

Draw22%

Groningen20%

Expected goals 2.10 – 1.15

Twente65%

Draw20%

Groningen15%

Expected goals 2.21 – 0.97

Over 2.5 66% Both score 59% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Enschede)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 106

Team strength

Twente

Groningen

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

41 AttackIn forecast 41

49 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Twente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Twente

Groningen

1.61 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.09 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

78% Scored inContext 74%

26% Clean sheetsContext 30%

18.52 ShotsContext 14.74

6.52 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.86

35% On target shareContext 38%

11.91 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

64% Box shareContext 57%

9% ConversionContext 9%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.95

9.91 Shots allowedContext 10.96

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.23

3.18 BlocksContext 2.95

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

64% Save rateContext 67%

55% PossessionIn forecast 51%

464 PassesContext 415

378 Accurate passesContext 334

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.82

10.57 FoulsContext 10.83

9.87 Fouls sufferedContext 10.13

1.65 Yellow cardsContext 1.65

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

2.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.59

0.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.51 Goals minus xGContext -0.49

90% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

20.00 ShotsContext 15.00

7.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

36% On target shareContext 32%

13.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.78

66% Box shareContext 54%

8% ConversionContext 7%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.90

9.50 Shots allowedContext 11.00

3.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.11 BlocksContext 3.44

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

70% Save rateContext 71%

55% PossessionIn forecast 52%

476 PassesContext 441

389 Accurate passesContext 362

82% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.80

9.10 FoulsContext 10.10

9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Twente

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km310 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Groningen

Rest7.6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel113 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Twente	Groningen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 15 Feb	7.6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	113 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	310 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Twente Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1L. Unnerstall(G)

39M. Rots 43Ruud Nijstad 23S. Lemkin 28B. van Rooij

20T. van den Belt 6R. Zerrouki 14K. Hlynsson

27S. Ørjasæter 10S. Lammers 11D. Rots

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1E. Vaessen(G)

2W. Prins 43M. Peersman 3T. Blokzijl 16T. Mercera

17D. van der Werff 6S. Resink 18T. Land 14J. Schreuders

26T. van Bergen 10Y. Taha

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Twente Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Groningen Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Twente+0.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Groningen+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Twente · Home 1.73points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 5-4-2
Scored: 1.64
Conceded: 1.00

Groningen · Away 1.45points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 5-1-5
Scored: 1.18
Conceded: 1.55

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Twente	Groningen
Telstar	D 1–1 AD 0–0 H	W 2–0 H
Heerenveen	W 5–0 HW 2–1 A	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H
NAC Breda	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A
Excelsior	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	W 2–0 A
Heracles	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H	W 4–0 H
PEC Zwolle	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	D 2–2 H
Feyenoord	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 H
GO Ahead Eagles	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 A
Utrecht	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A
AZ Alkmaar	W 1–0 H	L 1–4 A
FC Volendam	D 1–1 A	W 3–0 H
Ajax	L 2–3 H	L 0–2 A
NEC Nijmegen	D 3–3 A	L 0–2 A
Fortuna Sittard	W 3–2 H	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A
Sparta Rotterdam	W 5–1 A	L 0–2 AL 0–2 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–2 H	L 1–2 HL 2–4 A
Points	34 of 66 · 1.55 per game	30 of 66 · 1.36 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Twente wins2 draws0 Groningen wins

Goals per game1.33 – 0.67 Over 2.50% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%

2 Nov 2025Groningen1–1Twente
1 Mar 2025Groningen1–1Twente
15 Dec 2024Twente2–0Groningen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Twente	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.61	1.30
Conceded per game	1.09	1.30
Match goals	2.70	2.61	3.38
Over 1.5	78%	87%
Over 2.5	39%	48%	66%
Over 3.5	30%	17%
Both teams scored	61%	48%	59%
Clean sheets	26%	30%
Failed to score	22%	26%
Games	23	23

	Twente	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.10
Conceded per game	0.60	1.10
Match goals	2.20	2.20	3.38
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	20%	40%	66%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	59%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Twente	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.18	6.05
Corners conceded	3.95	4.55
Match total	9.13	10.60	10.29
Over 8.5	45% 10/22	73% 16/22
Over 9.5	32% 7/22	45% 10/22
Over 10.5	32% 7/22	36% 8/22
Cards
Cards	1.78	1.74
Opponent cards	2.04	1.74
Match total	3.82	3.48	3.51
Over 3.5	43% 10/23	48% 11/23
Over 4.5	35% 8/23	26% 6/23

	Twente	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.89	7.50
Corners conceded	4.67	4.00
Match total	10.56	11.50	10.29
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.40
Opponent cards	2.10	1.60
Match total	3.50	3.00	3.51
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 106 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.34league 3.30

Red cards0.13league 0.19

Cards 5+27%league 30%

Fouls21.7league 21.6

Penalties0.30league 0.25

Home wins42%league 44%

Twente6 with this referee

Record3-1-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 0

W26 Sep 25H · Fortuna Sittard3–21
L18 May 25A · Ajax0–22
L24 Apr 25H · PSV Eindhoven1–32
W23 Feb 25H · NEC Nijmegen2–01
D19 Oct 24A · Waalwijk2–22

Groningen5 with this referee

Record3-1-1 Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.2 Pens for · against1 · 0

W13 Dec 25H · FC Volendam3–00
L23 Aug 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–42
W25 Jan 25H · Heerenveen1–00
W9 Nov 24H · Sparta Rotterdam1–01
D14 Sep 24H · Feyenoord2–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.