Twente
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Twente
7th · 35 pts · 23 played
WDDWD
First leg1–1
2–1Full time
Groningen
8th · 31 pts · 23 played
WLLLL
Twente66.4%fair odds 1.51
Draw19.1%fair odds 5.25
Groningen14.6%fair odds 6.87
Expected goals2.35 – 1.03total 3.38
Likeliest score2–19.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Groningen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Twente ↓ · Groningen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Twente goals, columns Groningen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.7%10.32
- 2–09.4%10.60
- 1–18.7%11.52
- 1–07.6%13.17
- 3–17.6%13.18
- 3–07.4%13.54
- 2–25.0%20.11
- 4–14.5%22.45
- 4–04.3%23.05
- 1–24.2%23.62
Winning margin
24.6%
Twente by 3+
fair 4.06
19.7%
Twente by 2
fair 5.07
22.1%
Twente by 1
fair 4.53
19.1%
Draw
fair 5.25
9.4%
Groningen by 1
fair 10.64
3.8%
Groningen by 2
fair 26.55
1.4%
Groningen by 3+
fair 71.37
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
19%4
25%5+
Twente goals
10%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
21%4+
Groningen goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twente win | 66.4% | 65.0% | +1.4 pp |
| Draw | 19.1% | 20.1% | -1.0 pp |
| Groningen win | 14.6% | 14.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.6% | 61.7% | +3.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.5% | 55.9% | +2.6 pp |
| Expected goals Twente | 2.35 | 2.21 | +0.14 |
| Expected goals Groningen | 1.03 | 0.97 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Twente win66.4%1.51
- Draw19.1%5.25
- Groningen win14.6%6.87
- Double chance Twente or draw85.4%1.17
- Double chance Twente or Groningen80.9%1.24
- Double chance Groningen or draw33.6%2.97
- Draw no bet Twente82.0%1.22
- Draw no bet Groningen18.0%5.56
Goals
- Over 0.596.1%1.04
- Over 1.585.5%1.17
- Over 2.565.6%1.53
- Over 3.543.6%2.29
- Over 4.525.1%3.98
- Under 1.514.5%6.89
- Under 2.534.4%2.90
- Under 3.556.4%1.77
Both teams to score
- Yes58.5%1.71
- No41.5%2.41
- Yes and over 2.549.8%2.01
- Twente win and yes34.4%2.91
- Draw and yes15.2%6.57
- Groningen win and yes8.9%11.27
Team goals
- Twente over 0.590.5%1.11
- Twente over 1.568.0%1.47
- Twente over 2.541.7%2.40
- Groningen over 0.564.2%1.56
- Groningen over 1.527.4%3.65
- Groningen over 2.58.5%11.72
- Twente clean sheet35.8%2.79
- Groningen clean sheet9.5%10.48
- Twente win to nil32.0%3.13
- Groningen win to nil5.7%17.58
Handicap
- Twente −1.544.3%2.26
- Twente −2.524.6%4.06
- Groningen +1.555.7%1.80
- Groningen +2.575.4%1.33
- Groningen −1.55.2%19.35
- Twente +1.594.8%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored211
Favourite won50.2%
Avg chance given to result40.8%
1X2 Brier0.594
Over 2.5 called right61.6%
BTTS called right63.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37 | 38.1% | 32.4% |
| 40–50% | 76 | 44.9% | 46.1% |
| 50–60% | 48 | 55.0% | 45.8% |
| 60–70% | 27 | 64.1% | 63.0% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 74.3% | 87.5% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 84.7% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 188 of 211 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5980 | 0.5920 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.5% | 41.8% |
| Favourite won | 49.5% | 52.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 188 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 211 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.