Twente vs Heerenveen – 7 Feb 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Feb 7 · 19:00 De Grolsch Veste, Enschede

Twente 7th · 31 pts · 21 played DDWDD

First leg2–1 5–0Full time

Heerenveen 11th · 25 pts · 20 played WWDLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Twente were slight favourites.

Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Heerenveen. Twente had 8 days of rest, Heerenveen 6.1 and had to travel 106 km.

Away travel106 kmRest days8 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 1

Twente52%

Draw25%

Heerenveen23%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.09

Twente52%

Draw25%

Heerenveen22%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.05

Twente52%

Draw25%

Heerenveen24%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.11

Twente45%

Draw26%

Heerenveen29%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.22

Twente51%

Draw26%

Heerenveen23%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.02

Over 2.5 54% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Enschede)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 47

Team strength

Twente

Heerenveen

37 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 31

41 AttackIn forecast 36

49 DefenceIn forecast 40

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Twente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Heerenveen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Twente

Heerenveen

1.48 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.55

1.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.67

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

-0.38 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

76% Scored inContext 80%

24% Clean sheetsContext 10%

18.05 ShotsContext 15.35

6.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

34% On target shareContext 35%

11.71 Shots in the boxContext 9.84

65% Box shareContext 63%

8% ConversionContext 10%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.15

9.86 Shots allowedContext 9.95

3.65 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.15

3.20 BlocksContext 2.47

2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

63% Save rateContext 63%

55% PossessionIn forecast 53%

461 PassesContext 442

375 Accurate passesContext 356

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.83

10.81 FoulsContext 11.35

9.81 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

1.71 Yellow cardsContext 1.45

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 21 and 20 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.99 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

0.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.99

-0.89 Goals minus xGContext +0.09

80% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

19.60 ShotsContext 15.80

6.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

33% On target shareContext 37%

13.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.80

69% Box shareContext 62%

6% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.33

9.10 Shots allowedContext 9.40

3.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

3.22 BlocksContext 2.11

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

70% Save rateContext 68%

55% PossessionIn forecast 52%

483 PassesContext 457

397 Accurate passesContext 372

82% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.80

9.90 FoulsContext 12.20

8.50 Fouls sufferedContext 8.50

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Twente

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km323 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Heerenveen

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel106 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Twente	Heerenveen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 30 Jan	6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	106 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	323 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	3.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Twente Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1L. Unnerstall(G)

39M. Rots 3R. Pröpper 23S. Lemkin 28B. van Rooij

20T. van den Belt 6R. Zerrouki

27S. Ørjasæter 14K. Hlynsson 11D. Rots

10S. Lammers

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Heerenveen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22B. Klaverboer(G)

19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude

6J. van Overeem 16M. Linday

10R. Meerveld 8L. Brouwers 20J. Trenskow

26A. van Axel Dongen

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Twente Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Heerenveen Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Twente+0.6 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Heerenveen-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Twente · Home 1.60points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 4-4-2
Scored: 1.30
Conceded: 1.10

Heerenveen · Away 1.22points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 3-2-4
Scored: 1.56
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Twente	Heerenveen
NAC Breda	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	D 3–3 H
Excelsior	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	W 2–1 H
Heracles	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H	W 3–0 A
PEC Zwolle	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 A
Feyenoord	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A
GO Ahead Eagles	W 2–0 H	D 2–2 H
Utrecht	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A
AZ Alkmaar	W 1–0 H	W 3–1 H
FC Volendam	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Telstar	D 0–0 H	W 3–2 A
Groningen	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A
Ajax	L 2–3 H	D 1–1 A
NEC Nijmegen	D 3–3 A	W 3–2 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 3–2 H	L 0–2 A
Sparta Rotterdam	W 5–1 A	W 3–0 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–2 H	L 0–2 H
Points	28 of 60 · 1.40 per game	25 of 57 · 1.32 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 Twente wins1 draws0 Heerenveen wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

24 Aug 2025Heerenveen1–2Twente
9 Feb 2025Heerenveen3–3Twente
17 Sep 2024Twente2–0Heerenveen
30 Sep 2023Twente1–0Heerenveen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Twente	Heerenveen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.48	1.60
Conceded per game	1.14	1.55
Match goals	2.62	3.15	2.84
Over 1.5	76%	95%
Over 2.5	38%	65%	54%
Over 3.5	29%	35%
Both teams scored	62%	70%	55%
Clean sheets	24%	10%
Failed to score	24%	20%
Games	21	20

	Twente	Heerenveen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.40
Conceded per game	0.60	1.30
Match goals	1.70	2.70	2.84
Over 1.5	70%	100%
Over 2.5	10%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Twente	Heerenveen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.14	5.90
Corners conceded	4.00	4.55
Match total	9.14	10.45	10.21
Over 8.5	43% 9/21	80% 16/20
Over 9.5	33% 7/21	55% 11/20
Over 10.5	33% 7/21	45% 9/20
Cards
Cards	1.86	1.55
Opponent cards	2.05	1.60
Match total	3.91	3.15	3.59
Over 3.5	43% 9/21	35% 7/20
Over 4.5	38% 8/21	20% 4/20

	Twente	Heerenveen	League
Corners
Corners won	6.10	5.80
Corners conceded	4.50	4.40
Match total	10.60	10.20	10.21
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.30
Opponent cards	2.00	1.10
Match total	3.90	2.40	3.59
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 47 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.26league 3.38

Red cards0.15league 0.21

Cards 5+30%league 32%

Fouls19.6league 21.7

Penalties0.30league 0.26

Home wins47%league 44%

Twente5 with this referee

Record3-1-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

W30 Nov 25H · AZ Alkmaar1–02
L30 Mar 25A · Heracles1–22
D9 Feb 25A · Heerenveen3–34
W12 Jan 25H · Willem II6–20
W1 Dec 24H · GO Ahead Eagles3–21

Heerenveen7 with this referee

Record2-1-4 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against3 · 1

L8 Nov 25A · Fortuna Sittard0–21
L16 Aug 25A · Groningen1–22
W18 May 25H · Feyenoord2–00
D9 Feb 25H · Twente3–31
L23 Nov 24A · Feyenoord0–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.