Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AC Milan were slight favourites.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 32). Udinese had 6.2 days of rest, AC Milan 6 and had to travel 321 km.
Away travel321 kmRest days6.2 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Udinese26%
Draw27%
AC Milan47%
Udinese26%
Draw26%
AC Milan48%
Udinese26%
Draw28%
AC Milan47%
Udinese21%
Draw25%
AC Milan54%
Udinese27%
Draw26%
AC Milan47%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 67
Team strength
Udinese
AC Milan
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
22
AttackIn forecast
72
18
DefenceIn forecast
69
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdineseAC Milan
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.29
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
12.00
ShotsContext
16.67
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
33%
On target shareContext
28%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.67
49%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.33
Shots allowedContext
5.33
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
2.33
BlocksContext
3.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
67%
Save rateContext
60%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
365
PassesContext
472
298
Accurate passesContext
416
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.00
FoulsContext
11.33
14.67
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.69
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.56
60%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.30
ShotsContext
14.00
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
32%
On target shareContext
30%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
56%
Box shareContext
64%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
1.57
OffsidesContext
1.63
13.30
Shots allowedContext
9.40
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
3.89
BlocksContext
2.67
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
63%
Save rateContext
77%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
367
PassesContext
471
301
Accurate passesContext
415
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.00
13.60
FoulsContext
10.40
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km689 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AC Milan
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel321 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
AC Milan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 321 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 689 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
90R. Sava(G)
33J. Zemura
28O. Solet
31T. Kristensen
19K. Ehizibue
14A. Atta
6Oier Zarraga
8J. Karlström
32J. Ekkelenkamp
17Iker Bravo
9K. Davis
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
1P. Terracciano(G)
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
23O. Tomori
2P. Estupiñán
12A. Rabiot
14L. Modrić
19Y. Fofana
56A. Saelemaekers
11C. Pulišić
7S. Giménez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AC Milan
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- AC Milan-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
AC Milan · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Udinese wins2 draws4 AC Milan wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.88
Over 2.550%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 11 Apr 2025Udinese0–4AC Milan
- 19 Oct 2024AC Milan1–0Udinese
- 20 Jan 2024Udinese2–3AC Milan
- 4 Nov 2023AC Milan0–1Udinese
- 18 Mar 2023Udinese3–1AC Milan
- 13 Aug 2022AC Milan4–2Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Udinese | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 11.33 | 9.66 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.66 | 3.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Udinese | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.44 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 11.66 | 9.90 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.40 | 3.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 67 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.36league 3.85
Red cards0.21league 0.09
Cards 5+28%league 42%
Fouls25.0league 26.0
Penalties0.22league 0.21
Home wins27%league 42%
Udinese8 with this referee
Record4-3-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- W16 Feb 25H · Empoli3–00
- L14 Dec 24H · Napoli1–31
- W24 Aug 24H · Lazio2–14
- W26 May 24A · Frosinone1–02
- D17 Sep 23A · Cagliari0–01
AC Milan10 with this referee
Record4-4-2
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W8 Mar 25A · Lecce3–21
- W11 Feb 24H · Napoli1–01
- D22 Dec 23A · Salernitana2–21
- L13 May 23A · Spezia0–21
- L18 Mar 23A · Udinese1–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Udinese3 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
AC Milan3 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
46-60
6
3
61-75
7
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
