Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were slight favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 34). Absences weigh more on Udinese. Udinese had 7.1 days of rest, Juventus 7 and had to travel 446 km.
Away travel446 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Udinese22%
Draw25%
Juventus53%
Udinese23%
Draw25%
Juventus51%
Udinese22%
Draw25%
Juventus52%
Udinese17%
Draw23%
Juventus61%
Udinese22%
Draw24%
Juventus54%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 104
Team strength
Udinese
Juventus
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
22
AttackIn forecast
57
18
DefenceIn forecast
76
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisJuventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdineseJuventus
1.18
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.79
1.46
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
79%
Scored inContext
79%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
10.93
ShotsContext
16.00
3.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.89
32%
On target shareContext
37%
6.38
Shots in the boxContext
10.07
56%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.09
12.29
Shots allowedContext
10.04
4.28
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.96
3.39
BlocksContext
2.96
2.68
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.21
63%
Save rateContext
71%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
351
PassesContext
517
280
Accurate passesContext
449
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.71
FoulsContext
12.36
11.54
Fouls sufferedContext
10.04
1.82
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.90
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.20
ShotsContext
15.70
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.33
35%
On target shareContext
36%
5.22
Shots in the boxContext
12.50
53%
Box shareContext
68%
16%
ConversionContext
15%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.57
12.20
Shots allowedContext
12.50
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.30
BlocksContext
3.10
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
68%
Save rateContext
67%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
346
PassesContext
477
271
Accurate passesContext
403
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.60
FoulsContext
13.10
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km559 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Juventus
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel446 km1,051 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
Juventus |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Mar | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 446 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 559 km | 1,051 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
31T. Kristensen
27C. Kabasele
19K. Ehizibue
8J. Karlström
11H. Kamara
14A. Atta
32J. Ekkelenkamp
6Oier Zarraga
9K. Davis
10N. Zaniolo
Juventus
Confirmed XI
1M. Perin(G)
6L. Kelly
3Bremer
15P. Kalulu
27A. Cambiaso
19K. Thuram
5M. Locatelli
22W. McKennie
13J. Boga
7Francisco Conceição
10K. Yıldız
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Juventus
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Juventus+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
1.36points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-5
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.29
Juventus · Away
1.50points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-5
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Udinese | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 3–0 HL 1–5 A | D 1–1 A |
| Bologna | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | W 3–0 A |
| Lecce | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | D 3–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Verona | W 3–1 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | L 2–3 AW 4–3 H |
| Pisa | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Torino | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Como | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Lazio | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Napoli | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Genoa | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Parma | W 2–0 A | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 A | W 5–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Cagliari | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| AC Milan | L 0–3 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 36 of 81 · 1.33 per game | 47 of 81 · 1.74 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 Udinese wins1 draws7 Juventus wins
Goals per game0.44 – 1.78
Over 2.533%
Both scored22%
Clean sheets11% · 67%
- 29 Oct 2025Juventus3–1Udinese
- 18 May 2025Juventus2–0Udinese
- 2 Nov 2024Udinese0–2Juventus
- 12 Feb 2024Juventus0–1Udinese
- 20 Aug 2023Udinese0–3Juventus
- 4 Jun 2023Udinese0–1Juventus
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.18 | 1.79 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.46 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.64 | 2.79 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 21% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Udinese | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.69 | 5.08 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.62 | 3.73 | |
| Match total | 9.31 | 8.81 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 13/26 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 12/26 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 11/26 | 23% 6/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 1.32 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.82 | 2.18 | |
| Match total | 3.68 | 3.50 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 14/28 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 9/28 | 36% 10/28 | |
| Udinese | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 3.22 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 7.55 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.90 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 104 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.89league 3.75
Red cards0.20league 0.18
Cards 5+38%league 35%
Fouls23.9league 25.1
Penalties0.25league 0.30
Home wins46%league 40%
Udinese8 with this referee
Record4-3-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- L21 Dec 25A · Fiorentina1–52
- W1 Feb 25H · Venezia3–23
- D11 Jan 25H · Atalanta0–01
- W5 Oct 24H · Lecce1–02
- D18 Feb 24H · Cagliari1–13
Juventus11 with this referee
Record5-4-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W25 Jan 26H · Napoli3–01
- W16 Feb 25H · Inter1–01
- D29 Dec 24H · Fiorentina2–23
- D27 Apr 24H · AC Milan0–00
- L3 Mar 24A · Napoli1–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Udinese28 games · scored 33 · conceded 41
4
6
0-15
5
6
16-30
6
5
31-45
8
8
46-60
6
7
61-75
4
9
76-90
Juventus28 games · scored 50 · conceded 28
6
4
0-15
5
3
16-30
6
6
31-45
8
4
46-60
12
4
61-75
13
7
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 23 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
8
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
