Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Udinese were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Udinese had 4.8 days of rest, Lecce 7 and had to travel 750 km.
Away travel750 kmRest days4.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Udinese46%
Draw28%
Lecce26%
Udinese48%
Draw26%
Lecce26%
Udinese46%
Draw28%
Lecce26%
Udinese39%
Draw29%
Lecce32%
Udinese47%
Draw26%
Lecce27%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyErmanno Feliciani
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 30
Team strength
Udinese
Lecce
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
22
AttackIn forecast
36
18
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdineseLecce
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.71
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
0.71
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
86%
Scored inContext
57%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
12.43
ShotsContext
9.43
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
30%
On target shareContext
27%
6.57
Shots in the boxContext
5.71
51%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.33
10.86
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
2.00
BlocksContext
2.71
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
62%
Save rateContext
68%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
378
PassesContext
333
315
Accurate passesContext
258
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.68
12.43
FoulsContext
11.86
12.29
Fouls sufferedContext
13.71
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
0.73
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.70
ShotsContext
9.60
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
28%
On target shareContext
29%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
54%
Box shareContext
59%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.43
13.00
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.44
BlocksContext
2.80
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
66%
Save rateContext
77%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
369
PassesContext
315
307
Accurate passesContext
239
83%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.50
FoulsContext
12.20
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km542 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lecce
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel750 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
Lecce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Oct | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 750 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 542 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
2S. Goglichidze
11H. Kamara
14A. Atta
8J. Karlström
32J. Ekkelenkamp
59A. Zanoli
9K. Davis
10N. Zaniolo
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
4E. Gaspar
17Danilo Veiga
10M. Berisha
20Y. Ramadani
7Tete Morente
14Þ. Helgason
50S. Pierotti
9N. Štulić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lecce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Lecce+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
0.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Lecce · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Udinese | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Sassuolo | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| AC Milan | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Udinese wins2 draws1 Lecce wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets50% · 17%
- 21 Feb 2025Lecce0–1Udinese
- 5 Oct 2024Udinese1–0Lecce
- 13 May 2024Lecce0–2Udinese
- 23 Oct 2023Udinese1–1Lecce
- 28 Apr 2023Lecce1–0Udinese
- 4 Nov 2022Udinese1–1Lecce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.14 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 43% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Udinese | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.14 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 43% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 4.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 5.57 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 10.43 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 3.72 | 3.14 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Udinese | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 10.70 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ermanno Feliciani Italy · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.03league 3.82
Red cards0.03league 0.13
Cards 5+17%league 38%
Fouls22.7league 26.0
Penalties0.23league 0.25
Home wins57%league 37%
Udinese2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W3 May 25A · Cagliari2–12
- L22 Sep 24A · AS Roma0–32
LecceNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Udinese7 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Lecce7 games · scored 5 · conceded 10
2
0-15
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
46-60
5
61-75
2
1
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
5
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
