Udinese
Attack+34%
Defense risk−26%
Our take
Udinese were slight favourites.
Udinese were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Udinese. Udinese were without J. Abankwah and N. Zaniolo. Lecce were without I. Ilić. Udinese had 5.7 days of rest, Lecce 6.9 and had to travel 750 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel750 kmRest days5.7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Udinese53%
Draw24%
Lecce23%
Udinese52%
Draw25%
Lecce23%
Udinese54%
Draw24%
Lecce22%
Udinese45%
Draw26%
Lecce29%
Udinese55%
Draw22%
Lecce23%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
21°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 4 km/h
- Humidity 51%
Referee · ItalyMarco Guida
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 94
Team strength
Udinese
Lecce
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
22
AttackIn forecast
36
18
DefenceIn forecast
30
18
Form indexContext
17
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLecce
Attack+21%
Defense risk−13%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
UdineseLecce
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.30
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
83%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
14.17
ShotsContext
10.17
4.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
29%
On target shareContext
36%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.83
69%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.25
OffsidesContext
1.25
16.17
Shots allowedContext
15.00
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.17
5.17
BlocksContext
2.40
3.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.83
64%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
459
PassesContext
361
391
Accurate passesContext
286
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.83
FoulsContext
13.33
8.33
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.10
ShotsContext
9.40
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
34%
On target shareContext
40%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
68%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
15.00
Shots allowedContext
14.20
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
4.40
BlocksContext
2.78
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
67%
Save rateContext
70%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
438
PassesContext
314
370
Accurate passesContext
242
84%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.20
FoulsContext
12.40
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
WLLLL
Rest5.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km892 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 18 · 3 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected
Lecce
LLWLL
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel750 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 17 · 3 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -2.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
Lecce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.7Serie A 2026-2027, 12 Oct | 6.9Serie A 2026-2027, 11 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 750 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 892 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.4 | 7.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
77E. Ebosse
5D. Alaba
28O. Solet
11H. Kamara
6Oier Zarraga
8J. Karlström
23M. Vojvoda
30G. Chakvetadze
32J. Ekkelenkamp
9K. Davis
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
4E. Gaspar
17Danilo Veiga
14Y. Maleh
79Oumar Ngom
29L. Coulibaly
7A. Fatah
69W. Geubbels
11K. N’Dri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −24.2% · Defence line −18.7% of weighted minutes
- DEF J. Abankwah Starter 6.66 Def −11.3%
- MID N. Zaniolo Starter 6.84 Att −12.7% Def −3.9%
- MID J. Piotrowski Rotation 6.65 Att −4.6% Def −1.4%
- DEF A. Zanoli Rotation 6.91 Def −2.0%
- ATT Idrissa Gueye Rotation 6.54 Att −4.4%
- ATT V. Bayo Rotation 6.43 Att −2.6%
Lecce
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −17.4% · Defence line −5.7% of weighted minutes
- MID I. Ilić Starter 6.68 Att −8.7% Def −4.9%
- ATT N. Štulić Rotation 6.44 Att −7.3%
- MID M. Berisha Rotation 7.18 Att −1.4% Def −0.8%
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Lecce+0.7 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Lecce · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Udinese | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Monza | W 3–2 A | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Udinese wins2 draws2 Lecce wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.88
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets38% · 13%
- 8 Feb 2026Lecce2–1Udinese
- 25 Oct 2025Udinese3–2Lecce
- 21 Feb 2025Lecce0–1Udinese
- 5 Oct 2024Udinese1–0Lecce
- 13 May 2024Lecce0–2Udinese
- 23 Oct 2023Udinese1–1Lecce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 3.00 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 33% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Udinese | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 8.17 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.50 | 0.83 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.00 | 3.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Udinese | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 8.10 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.30 | 3.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 94 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.87league 3.33
Red cards0.14league 0.06
Cards 5+37%league 30%
Fouls23.6league 21.5
Penalties0.33league 0.13
Home wins41%league 48%
Udinese6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D19 May 24H · Empoli1–11
- L20 Apr 24A · Verona0–12
- D2 Sep 23H · Frosinone0–02
- L4 Jun 23H · Juventus0–12
- W10 Apr 22A · Venezia2–12
Lecce2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D21 Sep 24H · Parma2–25
- D3 Mar 24A · Frosinone1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Udinese6 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
Lecce6 games · scored 6 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
1
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
4
3
0-15
2
6
16-30
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
