Udinese
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Udinese19.6%fair odds 5.11
Draw25.1%fair odds 3.99
Napoli55.4%fair odds 1.81
Expected goals0.92 – 1.71total 2.63
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Napoli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Udinese ↓ · Napoli → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Udinese goals, columns Napoli goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.38
- 0–111.7%8.56
- 0–210.5%9.52
- 1–29.7%10.31
- 0–07.8%12.86
- 1–06.0%16.60
- 0–36.0%16.68
- 1–35.5%18.07
- 2–15.2%19.11
- 2–24.5%22.33
Winning margin
1.7%
Udinese by 3+
fair 57.71
5.0%
Udinese by 2
fair 19.92
12.8%
Udinese by 1
fair 7.79
25.1%
Draw
fair 3.99
24.3%
Napoli by 1
fair 4.12
17.3%
Napoli by 2
fair 5.79
13.8%
Napoli by 3+
fair 7.24
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
Udinese goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
Napoli goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese win | 19.6% | 19.8% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.1% | 23.8% | +1.2 pp |
| Napoli win | 55.4% | 56.3% | -1.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.0% | 54.0% | -5.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.0% | 53.9% | -3.9 pp |
| Expected goals Udinese | 0.92 | 1.00 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals Napoli | 1.71 | 1.84 | -0.13 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Udinese win19.6%5.11
- Draw25.1%3.99
- Napoli win55.4%1.81
- Double chance Udinese or draw44.6%2.24
- Double chance Udinese or Napoli74.9%1.33
- Double chance Napoli or draw80.4%1.24
- Draw no bet Udinese26.1%3.83
- Draw no bet Napoli73.9%1.35
Goals
- Over 0.592.2%1.08
- Over 1.574.5%1.34
- Over 2.549.0%2.04
- Over 3.527.2%3.68
- Over 4.512.8%7.84
- Under 1.525.5%3.93
- Under 2.551.0%1.96
- Under 3.572.8%1.37
Both teams to score
- Yes50.0%2.00
- No50.0%2.00
- Yes and over 2.538.1%2.63
- Udinese win and yes9.3%10.75
- Draw and yes17.3%5.79
- Napoli win and yes23.4%4.27
Team goals
- Udinese over 0.560.3%1.66
- Udinese over 1.523.6%4.24
- Udinese over 2.56.7%14.99
- Napoli over 0.581.9%1.22
- Napoli over 1.551.0%1.96
- Napoli over 2.524.6%4.07
- Udinese clean sheet18.1%5.54
- Napoli clean sheet39.7%2.52
- Udinese win to nil10.3%9.72
- Napoli win to nil31.9%3.13
Handicap
- Udinese −1.56.8%14.81
- Udinese −2.51.7%57.71
- Napoli +1.593.2%1.07
- Napoli +2.598.3%1.02
- Napoli −1.531.1%3.22
- Udinese +1.568.9%1.45
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored145
Favourite won48.3%
Avg chance given to result39.7%
1X2 Brier0.620
Over 2.5 called right55.9%
BTTS called right48.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 22 | 37.9% | 40.9% |
| 40–50% | 50 | 44.6% | 44.0% |
| 50–60% | 31 | 54.5% | 35.5% |
| 60–70% | 26 | 64.5% | 69.2% |
| 70–80% | 11 | 72.9% | 63.6% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 81.9% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 124 of 145 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6157 | 0.5991 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.5% | 40.0% |
| Favourite won | 47.6% | 47.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 124 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 145 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.