Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were slight favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 29). Udinese had 5.9 days of rest, Napoli 6.8 and had to travel 586 km.
Away travel586 kmRest days5.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Udinese20%
Draw25%
Napoli55%
Udinese19%
Draw24%
Napoli57%
Udinese19%
Draw25%
Napoli56%
Udinese15%
Draw23%
Napoli63%
Udinese20%
Draw24%
Napoli56%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalySimone Sozza
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 82
Team strength
Udinese
Napoli
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
73
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
60
22
AttackIn forecast
61
18
DefenceIn forecast
70
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNapoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdineseNapoli
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.57
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.86
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
79%
Scored inContext
79%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
12.14
ShotsContext
12.86
3.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.07
32%
On target shareContext
39%
7.31
Shots in the boxContext
8.29
57%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.00
Shots allowedContext
10.50
4.23
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
3.29
BlocksContext
2.92
2.77
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.92
66%
Save rateContext
70%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
360
PassesContext
511
292
Accurate passesContext
439
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.64
FoulsContext
12.57
11.71
Fouls sufferedContext
12.93
1.93
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.50
ShotsContext
10.60
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
30%
On target shareContext
38%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
64%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.57
12.10
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
3.80
BlocksContext
3.00
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
65%
Save rateContext
82%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
356
PassesContext
490
285
Accurate passesContext
415
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.86
15.20
FoulsContext
13.70
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Napoli
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel586 km373 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
Napoli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Dec | 6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 586 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 373 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
31T. Kristensen
13N. Bertola
32J. Ekkelenkamp
8J. Karlström
24J. Piotrowski
59A. Zanoli
9K. Davis
10N. Zaniolo
Napoli
Confirmed XI
32V. Milinković-Savić(G)
4A. Buongiorno
13A. Rrahmani
31S. Beukema
37L. Spinazzola
8S. McTominay
20E. Elmas
22G. Di Lorenzo
70N. Lang
19R. Højlund
7David Neres
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Napoli
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Napoli-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
1.14points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.71
Napoli · Away
1.71points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-3
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 0.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 11 this season
| Opponent | Udinese | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Bologna | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Atalanta | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Juventus | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Lecce | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Cagliari | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Sassuolo | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Pisa | W 1–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Inter | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 13 of 33 · 1.18 per game | 27 of 33 · 2.45 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Udinese wins3 draws5 Napoli wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.38
Over 2.563%
Both scored88%
Clean sheets0% · 13%
- 9 Feb 2025Napoli1–1Udinese
- 14 Dec 2024Udinese1–3Napoli
- 6 May 2024Udinese1–1Napoli
- 27 Sep 2023Napoli4–1Udinese
- 4 May 2023Udinese1–1Napoli
- 12 Nov 2022Napoli3–2Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 0.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.64 | 2.43 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 21% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Udinese | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.20 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.54 | 3.42 | |
| Match total | 9.54 | 8.17 | 8.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 6/13 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 5/13 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 5/13 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 3.43 | 3.43 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 7/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 3/14 | 14% 2/14 | |
| Udinese | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 7.44 | 8.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 82 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.27league 3.86
Red cards0.16league 0.16
Cards 5+43%league 37%
Fouls24.8league 25.9
Penalties0.46league 0.32
Home wins37%league 40%
Udinese2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L26 Jan 25H · AS Roma1–22
- L20 Apr 22H · Salernitana0–13
Napoli7 with this referee
Record3-3-1
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W30 Mar 25H · AC Milan2–11
- D28 Apr 24H · AS Roma2–22
- L4 Jan 23A · Inter0–12
- W3 Sep 22A · Lazio2–10
- D21 Feb 22A · Cagliari1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Udinese14 games · scored 15 · conceded 22
2
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
Napoli14 games · scored 22 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
1
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
4
1
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
