Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union Berlin
12th · 36 pts · 33 played
LLLDW
4–0Full time
FC Augsburg
9th · 43 pts · 33 played
DWDWW
Our take
It was too close to call.
FC Augsburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FC Augsburg. Union Berlin had 5.8 days of rest, FC Augsburg 7 and had to travel 495 km.
Away travel495 kmRest days5.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Union Berlin36%
Draw24%
FC Augsburg40%
Union Berlin38%
Draw27%
FC Augsburg35%
Union Berlin35%
Draw24%
FC Augsburg41%
Union Berlin28%
Draw23%
FC Augsburg49%
Union Berlin35%
Draw24%
FC Augsburg40%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 67%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
No weather data yet
RefereePatrick Ittrich
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 49
Team strength
Union BerlinFC Augsburg
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
42
AttackIn forecast
72
41
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union BerlinFC Augsburg
1.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
1.76
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.73
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
76%
Scored inContext
76%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
11.97
ShotsContext
12.73
3.64
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.45
30%
On target shareContext
35%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.09
72%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.27
12.52
Shots allowedContext
14.06
4.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.69
3.88
BlocksContext
4.66
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
64%
Save rateContext
65%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
324
PassesContext
377
235
Accurate passesContext
298
73%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.97
FoulsContext
10.64
9.64
Fouls sufferedContext
11.15
2.06
Yellow cardsContext
2.39
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.67
2.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.90
ShotsContext
13.70
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
36%
On target shareContext
37%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
61%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.33
14.50
Shots allowedContext
16.50
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.57
BlocksContext
5.00
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
61%
Save rateContext
76%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
340
PassesContext
321
249
Accurate passesContext
245
73%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.00
FoulsContext
9.40
8.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km910 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Augsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel495 km1,087 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
FC Augsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 10 May | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 495 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 910 km | 1,087 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 105 | 106.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
25C. Klaus(G)
15T. Rothe
4Diogo Leite
5D. Doekhi
28C. Trimmel
6A. Kemlein
13A. Schäfer
9Livan Burcu
10Ilyas Ansah
7O. Burke
23A. Ilić
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
16C. Zesiger
6J. Gouweleeuw
5C. Matsima
19Robin Fellhauer
32F. Rieder
14Y. Keitel
27M. Wolf
36M. Kömür
30A. Kade
38M. Gregoritsch
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Augsburg
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- FC Augsburg-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
1.19points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-7-5
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.63
FC Augsburg · Away
1.06points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-9
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.81
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Union Berlin | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–3 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 AL 0–6 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | W 3–2 AW 3–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–4 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A | W 3–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | W 3–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Hamburger SV | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 AL 2–4 H | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | L 2–5 HL 2–3 A |
| Points | 35 of 96 · 1.09 per game | 42 of 96 · 1.31 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 Union Berlin wins4 draws4 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.33
Over 2.522%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets11% · 56%
- 15 Jan 2026FC Augsburg1–1Union Berlin
- 17 May 2025FC Augsburg1–2Union Berlin
- 15 Jan 2025Union Berlin0–2FC Augsburg
- 12 Apr 2024FC Augsburg2–0Union Berlin
- 25 Nov 2023Union Berlin1–1FC Augsburg
- 6 May 2023FC Augsburg1–0Union Berlin
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.21 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.76 | 1.73 | |
| Match goals | 2.97 | 3.09 | 3.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 61% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 64% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 24% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Union Berlin | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.66 | 4.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.72 | 5.45 | |
| Match total | 9.38 | 9.81 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 66% 21/32 | 61% 20/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 14/32 | 52% 17/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 9/32 | 42% 14/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 2.42 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.97 | 1.79 | |
| Match total | 4.15 | 4.21 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 18/33 | 64% 21/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 14/33 | 48% 16/33 | |
| Union Berlin | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 7.10 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 11.20 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.70 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Patrick Ittrich 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.69
Red cards0.06league 0.17
Cards 5+35%league 37%
Fouls24.5league 20.2
Penalties0.33league 0.35
Home wins53%league 44%
Union Berlin7 with this referee
Record2-1-4
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L21 Mar 26A · Bayern München0–42
- L29 Nov 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim1–23
- L7 Oct 23A · Borussia Dortmund2–41
- W26 Aug 23A · SV Darmstadt 984–12
- W27 May 23H · Werder Bremen1–01
FC Augsburg9 with this referee
Record3-1-5
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 3
- L7 Feb 26A · FSV Mainz 050–22
- L10 May 24H · VfB Stuttgart0–14
- D3 Feb 24A · VfL Bochum1–11
- L13 May 23A · VfL Bochum2–32
- W17 Feb 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union Berlin33 games · scored 40 · conceded 58
2
4
0-15
6
5
16-30
5
18
31-45
5
11
46-60
6
6
61-75
16
14
76-90
FC Augsburg33 games · scored 45 · conceded 57
6
7
0-15
6
10
16-30
9
12
31-45
9
10
46-60
5
9
61-75
10
9
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 11 · conceded 21
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
3
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
