Union Berlin
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Union Berlin45.4%fair odds 2.20
Draw25.3%fair odds 3.94
FC Schalke 0429.2%fair odds 3.42
Expected goals1.65 – 1.28total 2.94
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Schalke 04
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Union Berlin ↓ · FC Schalke 04 → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union Berlin goals, columns FC Schalke 04 goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.43
- 2–19.3%10.76
- 1–08.2%12.24
- 1–27.2%13.82
- 2–07.2%13.82
- 0–16.2%16.06
- 2–26.0%16.75
- 0–05.9%16.93
- 3–15.1%19.55
- 0–24.4%22.81
Winning margin
10.1%
Union Berlin by 3+
fair 9.91
13.9%
Union Berlin by 2
fair 7.19
21.4%
Union Berlin by 1
fair 4.67
25.3%
Draw
fair 3.94
16.5%
FC Schalke 04 by 1
fair 6.05
8.4%
FC Schalke 04 by 2
fair 11.86
4.3%
FC Schalke 04 by 3+
fair 23.30
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Union Berlin goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
9%4+
FC Schalke 04 goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin win | 45.4% | 46.0% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 25.3% | 24.7% | +0.6 pp |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 29.2% | 29.3% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.2% | 58.9% | -2.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.0% | 61.1% | -2.0 pp |
| Expected goals Union Berlin | 1.65 | 1.72 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals FC Schalke 04 | 1.28 | 1.34 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Union Berlin win45.4%2.20
- Draw25.3%3.94
- FC Schalke 04 win29.2%3.42
- Double chance Union Berlin or draw70.8%1.41
- Double chance Union Berlin or FC Schalke 0474.7%1.34
- Double chance FC Schalke 04 or draw54.6%1.83
- Draw no bet Union Berlin60.8%1.64
- Draw no bet FC Schalke 0439.2%2.55
Goals
- Over 0.594.1%1.06
- Over 1.579.7%1.25
- Over 2.556.2%1.78
- Over 3.533.8%2.96
- Over 4.517.4%5.75
- Under 1.520.3%4.93
- Under 2.543.8%2.28
- Under 3.566.2%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes59.0%1.69
- No41.0%2.44
- Yes and over 2.547.2%2.12
- Union Berlin win and yes23.6%4.23
- Draw and yes19.4%5.14
- FC Schalke 04 win and yes16.0%6.27
Team goals
- Union Berlin over 0.580.8%1.24
- Union Berlin over 1.549.1%2.04
- Union Berlin over 2.523.0%4.35
- FC Schalke 04 over 0.572.3%1.38
- FC Schalke 04 over 1.536.8%2.72
- FC Schalke 04 over 2.513.9%7.17
- Union Berlin clean sheet27.7%3.61
- FC Schalke 04 clean sheet19.2%5.21
- Union Berlin win to nil21.8%4.60
- FC Schalke 04 win to nil13.3%7.53
Handicap
- Union Berlin −1.524.0%4.17
- Union Berlin −2.510.1%9.91
- FC Schalke 04 +1.576.0%1.32
- FC Schalke 04 +2.589.9%1.11
- FC Schalke 04 −1.512.7%7.86
- Union Berlin +1.587.3%1.15
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored18
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result42.1%
1X2 Brier0.584
Over 2.5 called right77.8%
BTTS called right55.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.5% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 7 | 43.1% | 42.9% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 57.1% | 40.0% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 64.8% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.6% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 81.2% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 18 of 18 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5836 | 0.6068 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.1% | 41.3% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 55.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗FC Schalke 04 0–0 Bayern München7·11·81
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- ✓Bayer Leverkusen 4–0 Union Berlin66·18·16
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- ✓FC Augsburg 3–0 FC Schalke 0443·25·32
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 18 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.