Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Union Berlin were slight favourites.
FC Schalke 04 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 40). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Union Berlin. Union Berlin had 6.2 days of rest, FC Schalke 04 6.1 and had to travel 447 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel447 kmRest days6.2 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Union Berlin46%
Draw24%
FC Schalke 0430%
Union Berlin40%
Draw26%
FC Schalke 0434%
Union Berlin45%
Draw24%
FC Schalke 0430%
Union Berlin38%
Draw25%
FC Schalke 0437%
Union Berlin47%
Draw24%
FC Schalke 0430%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
18°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 49%
Referee · GermanyTimo Gerach
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 35
Team strength
Union Berlin
FC Schalke 04
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
42
AttackIn forecast
33
41
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Schalke 04
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union BerlinFC Schalke 04
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.00
3.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
2.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.83
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-1.16
50%
Scored inContext
0%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.00
ShotsContext
7.50
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
42%
On target shareContext
40%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
59%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
0%
2.50
OffsidesContext
—
16.50
Shots allowedContext
19.50
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
9.00
5.50
BlocksContext
4.50
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
7.50
60%
Save rateContext
83%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
35%
343
PassesContext
326
253
Accurate passesContext
226
74%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.51
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.50
FoulsContext
5.50
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.50
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
2.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.50
ShotsContext
13.10
5.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
39%
On target shareContext
34%
8.44
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
59%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.60
Shots allowedContext
10.40
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
5.00
BlocksContext
2.20
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
57%
Save rateContext
73%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
376
PassesContext
390
285
Accurate passesContext
298
76%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.89
9.80
FoulsContext
8.80
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
DL
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km944 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 38 · 1 pts vs 2.3 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
FC Schalke 04 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 6.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 447 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 944 km | 884 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
15T. Rothe
2O. Uduokhai
14L. Querfeld
18J. Juranović
9Livan Burcu
6A. Kemlein
20M. Aebischer
8R. Khedira
11W. Jeong
29E. Latte Lath
FC Schalke 04
Confirmed XI
1L. Karius(G)
4H. Kuruçay
25N. Katić
5T. Becker
8R. Gosens
13Satoshi Tanaka
23S. El-Faouzi
21D. Ljubičić
24A. Aouchiche
19K. Karaman
20C. Adamu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Schalke 04
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- FC Schalke 04-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
FC Schalke 04 · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Union Berlin wins1 draws0 FC Schalke 04 wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 19 Feb 2023Union Berlin0–0FC Schalke 04
- 27 Aug 2022FC Schalke 041–6Union Berlin
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | FC Schalke 04 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 1.50 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 100% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Union Berlin | FC Schalke 04 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 1.50 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 0% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 100% | |
| Games | 10 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | FC Schalke 04 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 11.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 14.00 | 11.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.00 | 3.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Union Berlin | FC Schalke 04 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 8.89 | 11.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Timo Gerach Germany · 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.83league 3.44
Red cards0.29league 0.11
Cards 5+46%league 22%
Fouls20.6league 23.3
Penalties0.46league 0.06
Home wins43%league 56%
Union Berlin3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L8 Mar 26H · Werder Bremen1–42
- W20 Oct 24A · Holstein Kiel2–01
- L12 Nov 23A · Bayer Leverkusen0–41
FC Schalke 041 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W21 Feb 26H · 1. FC Magdeburg5–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union Berlin2 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
FC Schalke 042 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 16 · conceded 23
2
5
0-15
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
5
61-75
8
1
76-90
FC Schalke 0410 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
