Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union Berlin
12th · 31 pts · 27 played
WLLWL
1–1Full time
FC St. Pauli
16th · 24 pts · 27 played
WWDLL
Our take
Union Berlin were slight favourites.
Union Berlin were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC St. Pauli. Union Berlin had 15 days of rest, FC St. Pauli 13.9 and had to travel 255 km.
Away travel255 kmRest days15 · 13.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Union Berlin48%
Draw27%
FC St. Pauli25%
Union Berlin52%
Draw25%
FC St. Pauli22%
Union Berlin46%
Draw27%
FC St. Pauli27%
Union Berlin41%
Draw28%
FC St. Pauli31%
Union Berlin48%
Draw27%
FC St. Pauli25%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Welz
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 51
Team strength
Union BerlinFC St. Pauli
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
42
AttackIn forecast
20
41
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union BerlinFC St. Pauli
1.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.89
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
70%
Scored inContext
59%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
11.59
ShotsContext
9.96
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.38
29%
On target shareContext
33%
8.73
Shots in the boxContext
5.85
72%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.57
13.04
Shots allowedContext
11.22
4.37
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.96
3.91
BlocksContext
3.23
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.46
66%
Save rateContext
69%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
308
PassesContext
426
220
Accurate passesContext
336
72%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.37
FoulsContext
9.67
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.63
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.41
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.30
ShotsContext
10.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
29%
On target shareContext
31%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
68%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.75
14.90
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
4.11
BlocksContext
2.56
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
61%
Save rateContext
75%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
288
PassesContext
407
200
Accurate passesContext
317
69%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.70
FoulsContext
9.00
8.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC St. Pauli
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel255 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
FC St. Pauli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 13.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 255 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
39D. Köhn
8R. Khedira
13A. Schäfer
19J. Haberer
23A. Ilić
11W. Jeong
7O. Burke
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
3K. Mets
5H. Wahl
25A. Dźwigała
28M. Pereira Lage
7J. Irvine
20M. Rasmussen
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
16J. Fujita
10D. Sinani
19M. Kaars
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin+2.0 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- FC St. Pauli-1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
1.31points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-4
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.62
FC St. Pauli · Away
0.57points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-10
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Union Berlin | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | L 0–4 AD 2–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Werder Bremen | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | L 0–2 AL 0–4 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H |
| Hamburger SV | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 AL 2–4 H | W 1–0 AL 0–3 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A | L 2–3 AD 3–3 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| FC Augsburg | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 28 of 78 · 1.08 per game | 24 of 78 · 0.92 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Union Berlin wins0 draws1 FC St. Pauli wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets67% · 33%
- 23 Nov 2025FC St. Pauli0–1Union Berlin
- 26 Jan 2025FC St. Pauli3–0Union Berlin
- 30 Aug 2024Union Berlin1–0FC St. Pauli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.15 | 0.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 2.85 | 2.52 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 52% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 41% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Union Berlin | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.10 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.35 | 4.54 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.62 | 4.58 | |
| Match total | 8.97 | 9.12 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 17/26 | 65% 17/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 11/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 6/26 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 1.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.07 | 1.89 | |
| Match total | 4.51 | 3.33 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 17/27 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 13/27 | 22% 6/27 | |
| Union Berlin | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 8.10 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 2.90 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Welz Germany · 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 3.75
Red cards0.14league 0.18
Cards 5+43%league 38%
Fouls23.3league 20.5
Penalties0.22league 0.36
Home wins45%league 44%
Union Berlin2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L13 Sep 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–42
- L6 Dec 24A · VfB Stuttgart2–36
FC St. Pauli1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D23 Jan 26H · Hamburger SV0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union Berlin27 games · scored 31 · conceded 46
2
2
0-15
6
2
16-30
4
16
31-45
4
9
46-60
4
4
61-75
11
13
76-90
FC St. Pauli27 games · scored 24 · conceded 44
1
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
7
10
31-45
5
10
46-60
4
8
61-75
5
9
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
1
0-15
3
16-30
8
31-45
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
