Union St. Gilloise
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Union St. Gilloise
4th · 20 pts · 8 played
WWWWD
VS—
Compare
Cercle Brugge
17th · 3 pts · 8 played
LLDLL
Union St. Gilloise73.2%fair odds 1.37
Draw16.9%fair odds 5.92
Cercle Brugge9.9%fair odds 10.13
Expected goals2.46 – 0.81total 3.26
Likeliest score2–011.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Cercle Brugge
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Union St. Gilloise ↓ · Cercle Brugge → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union St. Gilloise goals, columns Cercle Brugge goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.6%8.65
- 3–09.5%10.56
- 2–19.3%10.74
- 1–09.0%11.11
- 1–18.0%12.53
- 3–17.6%13.11
- 4–05.8%17.19
- 4–14.7%21.34
- 0–04.2%23.65
- 2–23.8%26.66
Winning margin
30.0%
Union St. Gilloise by 3+
fair 3.34
21.3%
Union St. Gilloise by 2
fair 4.69
21.9%
Union St. Gilloise by 1
fair 4.56
16.9%
Draw
fair 5.92
6.9%
Cercle Brugge by 1
fair 14.44
2.3%
Cercle Brugge by 2
fair 43.60
0.7%
Cercle Brugge by 3+
fair 153.62
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+
Union St. Gilloise goals
9%0
21%1
26%2
21%3
23%4+
Cercle Brugge goals
45%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise win | 73.2% | 73.4% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 16.9% | 16.7% | +0.2 pp |
| Cercle Brugge win | 9.9% | 9.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.3% | 64.5% | -1.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.0% | 52.0% | -1.0 pp |
| Expected goals Union St. Gilloise | 2.46 | 2.50 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Cercle Brugge | 0.81 | 0.83 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Union St. Gilloise win73.2%1.37
- Draw16.9%5.92
- Cercle Brugge win9.9%10.13
- Double chance Union St. Gilloise or draw90.1%1.11
- Double chance Union St. Gilloise or Cercle Brugge83.1%1.20
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or draw26.8%3.74
- Draw no bet Union St. Gilloise88.1%1.13
- Draw no bet Cercle Brugge11.9%8.42
Goals
- Over 0.595.8%1.04
- Over 1.584.1%1.19
- Over 2.563.3%1.58
- Over 3.541.2%2.43
- Over 4.523.1%4.33
- Under 1.515.9%6.28
- Under 2.536.7%2.73
- Under 3.558.8%1.70
Both teams to score
- Yes51.0%1.96
- No49.0%2.04
- Yes and over 2.543.0%2.33
- Union St. Gilloise win and yes32.8%3.05
- Draw and yes12.7%7.90
- Cercle Brugge win and yes5.5%18.07
Team goals
- Union St. Gilloise over 0.591.4%1.09
- Union St. Gilloise over 1.570.4%1.42
- Union St. Gilloise over 2.544.5%2.25
- Cercle Brugge over 0.555.3%1.81
- Cercle Brugge over 1.519.3%5.17
- Cercle Brugge over 2.54.8%20.73
- Union St. Gilloise clean sheet44.7%2.24
- Cercle Brugge clean sheet8.6%11.68
- Union St. Gilloise win to nil40.4%2.47
- Cercle Brugge win to nil4.3%23.06
Handicap
- Union St. Gilloise −1.551.3%1.95
- Union St. Gilloise −2.530.0%3.34
- Cercle Brugge +1.548.7%2.05
- Cercle Brugge +2.570.0%1.43
- Cercle Brugge −1.52.9%33.96
- Union St. Gilloise +1.597.1%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored72
Favourite won61.1%
Avg chance given to result45.0%
1X2 Brier0.511
Over 2.5 called right56.9%
BTTS called right44.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.4% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 30 | 45.4% | 46.7% |
| 50–60% | 19 | 55.0% | 78.9% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 64.8% | 85.7% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 72.9% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 83.9% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 47 of 72 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5318 | 0.5330 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.5% | 43.2% |
| Favourite won | 59.6% | 63.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 47 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗KV Mechelen 4–3 St. Truiden34·24·42
- ✓KVC Westerlo 5–1 Antwerp52·22·26
- ✗Union St. Gilloise 1–1 OH Leuven85·10·5
- ✗Standard Liege 0–1 Charleroi39·24·37
- ✓Genk 3–0 Kortrijk75·15·10
- ✓Zulte Waregem 0–2 Gent35·26·39
- ✓RAAL La Louvière 1–4 Club Brugge KV12·17·70
- ✓Cercle Brugge 1–2 Anderlecht32·24·44
- ✗SK Beveren 1–3 Lommel United37·25·37
- ✗Kortrijk 1–0 SK Beveren31·25·44
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 72 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.