Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge

Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Oct 25 · 18:15 Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels

Union St. Gilloise 4th · 20 pts · 8 played WWWWD

VS— Compare

Cercle Brugge 17th · 3 pts · 8 played LLDLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Union St. Gilloise are clear favourites.

Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cercle Brugge. Union St. Gilloise have 3.1 days of rest, Cercle Brugge 15.2 and have to travel 88 km. Weather to note: strong wind.

Away travel88 kmRest days3.1 · 15.2Matches / 14d2 · 0

Union St. Gilloise73%

Draw17%

Cercle Brugge10%

Expected goals 2.46 – 0.81

Union St. Gilloise75%

Draw17%

Cercle Brugge9%

Expected goals 2.44 – 0.73

Union St. Gilloise73%

Draw17%

Cercle Brugge10%

Expected goals 2.46 – 0.81

Union St. Gilloise66%

Draw20%

Cercle Brugge14%

Expected goals 2.19 – 0.90

Union St. Gilloise73%

Draw17%

Cercle Brugge10%

Expected goals 2.50 – 0.83

Over 2.5 63% Both score 51% Likeliest score 2–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 37 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brussels)

6°CDrizzle

Precipitation 31%
Wind 18 km/h
Humidity 93%

Strong wind

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Union St. Gilloise

Cercle Brugge

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

70 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

62 AttackIn forecast 24

74 DefenceIn forecast 28

73 Form indexContext 6

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—

Defense risk—

Cercle Brugge

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union St. Gilloise

Cercle Brugge

2.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.74

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68

+1.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.61

88% Scored inContext 63%

63% Clean sheetsContext 0%

16.88 ShotsContext 14.13

7.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

42% On target shareContext 28%

13.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.71

78% Box shareContext 70%

16% ConversionContext 8%

2.75 OffsidesContext 1.50

11.13 Shots allowedContext 12.63

2.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.38

4.13 BlocksContext 3.88

2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38

81% Save rateContext 54%

53% PossessionIn forecast 45%

458 PassesContext 370

377 Accurate passesContext 291

82% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.14 Team ratingContext 6.61

11.38 FoulsContext 12.38

11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.25

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62

+0.90 Goals minus xGContext -0.43

90% Scored inContext 70%

60% Clean sheetsContext 0%

17.30 ShotsContext 13.80

7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

41% On target shareContext 30%

13.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.11

75% Box shareContext 69%

13% ConversionContext 9%

2.78 OffsidesContext 1.90

11.90 Shots allowedContext 12.80

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.90 BlocksContext 3.90

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

75% Save rateContext 52%

51% PossessionIn forecast 46%

461 PassesContext 370

379 Accurate passesContext 292

82% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.12 Team ratingContext 6.64

11.90 FoulsContext 12.30

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union St. Gilloise WWWDD

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected

D15 OctH · Real Sociedad1–11.9 xPts
D11 OctH · OH Leuven1–12.7 xPts
W20 SepA · Antwerp2–02.1 xPts
W17 SepA · Plzen3–01.4 xPts
W12 SepH · Lommel United5–02.2 xPts

Cercle Brugge LLDLL

Rest15.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel88 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 6 · 1 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -5.5 vs expected

L10 OctH · Anderlecht1–21.2 xPts
L19 SepA · Charleroi2–30.8 xPts
D12 SepA · OH Leuven1–11.5 xPts
L6 SepH · Gent0–31.3 xPts
L29 AugH · Lommel United0–11.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Union St. Gilloise	Cercle Brugge
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct	15.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 10 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	88 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	6.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union St. Gilloise Last XI · not confirmed

3-1-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 1–1, 15 Oct

12H. Koffi(G)

55Nikki Havenaar 29M. Sylla 4N. Chibani

6K. Van de Perre

11G. da Silva Carvalho 28D. Olaru 23B. Zeneli 27L. Patris

38R. Mofokeng 9Mateo Biondic

Cercle Brugge Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Anderlecht (H) 1–2, 10 Oct

1G. Coucke(G)

12Valy Konaté 24Geoffrey Kondo 5Emmanuel Kakou 15G. Magnée

28H. Van der Bruggen 18L. Le Roux

30B. Akinsola 20A. Manneh 11C. Herrmann

9S. Ngoura

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Union St. Gilloise No reported absences

Cercle Brugge No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Union St. Gilloise · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-0
Scored: 2.25
Conceded: 0.25

Cercle Brugge · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Union St. Gilloise	Cercle Brugge
OH Leuven	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Lommel United	W 5–0 H	L 0–1 H
Charleroi	W 3–2 A	L 2–3 A
St. Truiden	W 3–0 A	D 3–3 H
Anderlecht	W 3–0 H	L 1–2 H
Points	13 of 15 · 2.60 per game	2 of 15 · 0.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 Union St. Gilloise wins1 draws0 Cercle Brugge wins

Goals per game1.75 – 0.50 Over 2.525% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

26 Dec 2025Cercle Brugge1–1Union St. Gilloise
22 Nov 2025Union St. Gilloise2–0Cercle Brugge
3 Dec 2023Union St. Gilloise2–1Cercle Brugge
24 Sep 2023Cercle Brugge0–2Union St. Gilloise

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Union St. Gilloise	Cercle Brugge	Forecast
Scored per game	2.75	1.13
Conceded per game	0.50	2.00
Match goals	3.25	3.13	3.26
Over 1.5	88%	75%
Over 2.5	63%	63%	63%
Over 3.5	38%	38%
Both teams scored	38%	63%	51%
Clean sheets	63%	0%
Failed to score	13%	38%
Games	8	8

	Union St. Gilloise	Cercle Brugge	Forecast
Scored per game	2.30	1.30
Conceded per game	0.70	2.10
Match goals	3.00	3.40	3.26
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	63%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	51%
Clean sheets	60%	0%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Union St. Gilloise	Cercle Brugge	League
Corners
Corners won	5.88	7.29
Corners conceded	3.25	4.57
Match total	9.13	11.86	10.01
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	71% 5/7
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	71% 5/7
Cards
Cards	1.88	1.25
Opponent cards	1.88	1.63
Match total	3.76	2.88	3.36
Over 3.5	50% 4/8	25% 2/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	25% 2/8

	Union St. Gilloise	Cercle Brugge	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	6.67
Corners conceded	3.90	5.00
Match total	8.70	11.67	10.01
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	78% 7/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.20
Opponent cards	1.90	1.50
Match total	3.90	2.70	3.36
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.