Union St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union St. Gilloise
1st · 60 pts · 28 played
WDWDW
First leg1–0
2–0Full time
Dender
16th · 19 pts · 28 played
LLLDD
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were clear favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Dender. Union St. Gilloise had 6.9 days of rest, Dender 7 and had to travel 20 km.
Away travel20 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Union St. Gilloise67%
Draw21%
Dender12%
Union St. Gilloise72%
Draw18%
Dender10%
Union St. Gilloise67%
Draw21%
Dender12%
Union St. Gilloise60%
Draw23%
Dender16%
Union St. Gilloise67%
Draw20%
Dender12%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 18
Team strength
Union St. GilloiseDender
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
62
AttackIn forecast
15
74
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union St. GilloiseDender
1.61
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.82
0.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.64
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
0.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
82%
Scored inContext
61%
46%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
14.50
ShotsContext
10.50
5.21
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.71
36%
On target shareContext
35%
11.04
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
72%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
3.35
OffsidesContext
2.17
8.04
Shots allowedContext
14.50
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
2.35
BlocksContext
3.81
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.28
79%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
426
PassesContext
378
345
Accurate passesContext
287
81%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.54
FoulsContext
10.64
9.25
Fouls sufferedContext
10.96
2.39
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.56
70%
Scored inContext
60%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.10
ShotsContext
12.30
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
31%
On target shareContext
37%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
66%
Box shareContext
75%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
4.14
OffsidesContext
2.14
8.00
Shots allowedContext
14.20
2.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.11
2.88
BlocksContext
4.22
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.88
78%
Save rateContext
74%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
391
PassesContext
368
307
Accurate passesContext
276
79%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.40
FoulsContext
11.20
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union St. Gilloise
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km96 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Dender
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel20 km139 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union St. Gilloise |
Dender |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Mar | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 20 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 96 km | 139 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
37K. Scherpen(G)
26R. Sykes
16C. Burgess
5K. Mac Allister
11G. da Silva Carvalho
6K. Van de Perre
8A. Zorgane
25A. Khalaili
10A. Ait El Hadj
23B. Zeneli
9Mateo Biondic
Dender
Confirmed XI
93G. Gallon(G)
88F. Ferraro
7B. Goncalves
5L. Marijnissen
70M. Sambu
24M. Viltard
18N. Rôdes
17N. Mbamba
16R. Květ
9David Toševski
20D. Hrnčár
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Dender+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Union St. Gilloise · Home
2.86points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 13-1-0
- Scored
- 2.14
- Conceded
- 0.36
Dender · Away
0.79points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-7
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Union St. Gilloise | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| Genk | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| KVC Westerlo | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Antwerp | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Standard Liege | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | L 1–5 HL 1–2 A |
| OH Leuven | D 0–0 AW 5–0 H | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H |
| KV Mechelen | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Zulte Waregem | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Charleroi | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Gent | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| St. Truiden | W 2–0 H | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Points | 57 of 81 · 2.11 per game | 19 of 81 · 0.70 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Union St. Gilloise wins0 draws0 Dender wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 13 Sep 2025Dender0–1Union St. Gilloise
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union St. Gilloise | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.61 | 0.82 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.57 | 1.64 | |
| Match goals | 2.18 | 2.46 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 32% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 57% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 46% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 39% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Union St. Gilloise | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 2.20 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union St. Gilloise | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.62 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.54 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 9.16 | 9.30 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 14/26 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 13/26 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 9/26 | 26% 7/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 2.07 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.29 | |
| Match total | 4.72 | 3.36 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 19/28 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 68% 19/28 | 32% 9/28 | |
| Union St. Gilloise | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.88 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.75 | 6.90 | |
| Match total | 8.63 | 11.60 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 3.80 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.17league 3.85
Red cards0.11league 0.19
Cards 5+28%league 40%
Fouls21.8league 22.7
Penalties0.17league 0.32
Home wins39%league 41%
Union St. Gilloise1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 Sep 25A · Dender1–00
Dender2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 Dec 25H · Club Brugge KV1–50
- L13 Sep 25H · Union St. Gilloise0–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union St. Gilloise28 games · scored 45 · conceded 16
5
4
0-15
5
16-30
8
3
31-45
6
3
46-60
8
1
61-75
13
5
76-90
Dender28 games · scored 23 · conceded 46
6
8
0-15
2
5
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
6
46-60
2
10
61-75
6
12
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 10 · conceded 6
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
2
5
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
