Union St. Gilloise
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Union St. Gilloise
4th · 19 pts · 7 played
WWWWW
1–1Full time
OH Leuven
14th · 4 pts · 7 played
LLLDW
Union St. Gilloise84.7%fair odds 1.18
Draw10.6%fair odds 9.47
OH Leuven4.7%fair odds 21.14
Expected goals3.14 – 0.68total 3.82
Likeliest score3–011.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
OH Leuven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Union St. Gilloise ↓ · OH Leuven → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.3 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union St. Gilloise goals, columns OH Leuven goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 3–011.3%8.85
- 2–010.8%9.27
- 4–08.9%11.27
- 3–17.7%12.98
- 2–17.4%13.59
- 1–06.6%15.10
- 4–16.0%16.53
- 5–05.6%17.94
- 1–14.9%20.28
- 5–13.8%26.31
Winning margin
46.7%
Union St. Gilloise by 3+
fair 2.14
20.9%
Union St. Gilloise by 2
fair 4.79
17.1%
Union St. Gilloise by 1
fair 5.84
10.6%
Draw
fair 9.47
3.5%
OH Leuven by 1
fair 28.39
1.0%
OH Leuven by 2
fair 101.72
0.2%
OH Leuven by 3+
fair 442.01
Goal distribution
Total goals
2%0
8%1
16%2
20%3
19%4
34%5+
Union St. Gilloise goals
4%0
14%1
21%2
22%3
38%4+
OH Leuven goals
51%0
34%1
12%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise win | 84.7% | 84.8% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 10.6% | 10.5% | +0.1 pp |
| OH Leuven win | 4.7% | 4.7% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 73.5% | 73.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.5% | 47.9% | -0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Union St. Gilloise | 3.14 | 3.16 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals OH Leuven | 0.68 | 0.69 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Union St. Gilloise win84.7%1.18
- Draw10.6%9.47
- OH Leuven win4.7%21.14
- Double chance Union St. Gilloise or draw95.3%1.05
- Double chance Union St. Gilloise or OH Leuven89.4%1.12
- Double chance OH Leuven or draw15.3%6.54
- Draw no bet Union St. Gilloise94.7%1.06
- Draw no bet OH Leuven5.3%18.91
Goals
- Over 0.597.6%1.02
- Over 1.589.7%1.11
- Over 2.573.5%1.36
- Over 3.553.1%1.88
- Over 4.533.6%2.97
- Under 1.510.3%9.71
- Under 2.526.5%3.77
- Under 3.546.9%2.13
Both teams to score
- Yes47.5%2.10
- No52.5%1.91
- Yes and over 2.542.6%2.35
- Union St. Gilloise win and yes36.6%2.73
- Draw and yes8.1%12.31
- OH Leuven win and yes2.8%35.18
Team goals
- Union St. Gilloise over 0.595.7%1.05
- Union St. Gilloise over 1.582.1%1.22
- Union St. Gilloise over 2.560.8%1.65
- OH Leuven over 0.549.4%2.02
- OH Leuven over 1.514.9%6.69
- OH Leuven over 2.53.2%31.30
- Union St. Gilloise clean sheet50.6%1.98
- OH Leuven clean sheet4.3%23.13
- Union St. Gilloise win to nil48.1%2.08
- OH Leuven win to nil1.9%52.95
Handicap
- Union St. Gilloise −1.567.6%1.48
- Union St. Gilloise −2.546.7%2.14
- OH Leuven +1.532.4%3.09
- OH Leuven +2.553.3%1.88
- OH Leuven −1.51.2%82.69
- Union St. Gilloise +1.598.8%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored69
Favourite won62.3%
Avg chance given to result45.6%
1X2 Brier0.496
Over 2.5 called right56.5%
BTTS called right43.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.4% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 29 | 45.5% | 48.3% |
| 50–60% | 18 | 55.1% | 77.8% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 64.8% | 85.7% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 72.9% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 44 of 69 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5100 | 0.5127 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.3% | 44.1% |
| Favourite won | 61.4% | 65.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 44 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 69 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.