Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Oct 11 · 15:00 Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels
Union St. Gilloise 4th · 19 pts · 7 played
1–1Full time
OH Leuven 14th · 4 pts · 7 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Union St. Gilloise were clear favourites.

Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Union St. Gilloise. Union St. Gilloise had 21.1 days of rest, OH Leuven 22 and had to travel 24 km.

Away travel24 kmRest days21.1 · 22Matches / 14d0 · 0
Union St. Gilloise85%
Draw10%
OH Leuven5%
Expected goals 3.14 – 0.68
Union St. Gilloise79%
Draw14%
OH Leuven7%
Expected goals 2.65 – 0.67
Union St. Gilloise85%
Draw10%
OH Leuven5%
Expected goals 3.14 – 0.68
Union St. Gilloise79%
Draw13%
OH Leuven7%
Expected goals 2.80 – 0.76
Union St. Gilloise85%
Draw10%
OH Leuven5%
Expected goals 3.16 – 0.69
Over 2.5 73% Both score 47% Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)

No weather data yet

RefereeNathan Verboomen
  • Cards per match 3.9
  • Penalties per match 0.18
  • Matches 49

Team strength

Union St. GilloiseOH Leuven
72 L90 StrengthIn forecast 17
70 Current StrengthIn forecast 18
62 AttackIn forecast 17
74 DefenceIn forecast 30
94 Form indexContext 14
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

OH Leuven

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union St. GilloiseOH Leuven
3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71
0.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.86
1.41 xGVia Att/Def 1.01
0.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 3.04
+1.59 Goals minus xGContext -0.30
86% Scored inContext 57%
71% Clean sheetsContext 14%
17.14 ShotsContext 12.86
7.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.57
46% On target shareContext 20%
14.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.57
80% Box shareContext 70%
18% ConversionContext 6%
3.00 OffsidesContext 1.40
11.00 Shots allowedContext 14.71
3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.86
3.86 BlocksContext 5.17
2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
81% Save rateContext 61%
52% PossessionIn forecast 49%
450 PassesContext 430
371 Accurate passesContext 343
83% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.17 Team ratingContext 6.70
11.71 FoulsContext 11.43
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.71
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.86
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.41 xGVia Att/Def 1.04
0.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.03
+1.49 Goals minus xGContext -0.14
90% Scored inContext 60%
60% Clean sheetsContext 20%
17.90 ShotsContext 12.60
8.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.90
45% On target shareContext 23%
14.11 Shots in the boxContext 8.50
78% Box shareContext 70%
16% ConversionContext 7%
3.11 OffsidesContext 1.86
12.00 Shots allowedContext 14.90
3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
4.11 BlocksContext 4.56
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67
74% Save rateContext 67%
49% PossessionIn forecast 46%
456 PassesContext 398
376 Accurate passesContext 318
82% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.20 Team ratingContext 6.78
11.44 FoulsContext 11.20
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union St. Gilloise
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +6.2 vs expected
  • W20 SepA · Antwerp2–02.1 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Plzen3–01.4 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Lommel United5–02.2 xPts
  • W5 SepA · Charleroi3–21.6 xPts
  • W2 SepA · St. Truiden3–01.5 xPts
OH Leuven
Rest22 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel24 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 14 · 4 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
  • W19 SepH · RAAL La Louvière2–01.5 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Cercle Brugge1–11.3 xPts
  • L6 SepA · SK Beveren0–31.1 xPts
  • L3 SepA · Gent0–10.6 xPts
  • L29 AugH · Standard Liege1–21.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union St. Gilloise OH Leuven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match21.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 20 Sep22Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 19 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km24 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 20 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one4.113.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union St. Gilloise Confirmed XI
3-1-4-2
12H. Koffi(G)
4N. Chibani 29M. Sylla 55Nikki Havenaar
6K. Van de Perre
11G. da Silva Carvalho 28D. Olaru 23B. Zeneli 27L. Patris
38R. Mofokeng 9Mateo Biondic
OH Leuven Confirmed XI
3-4-3
13K. Vroman(G)
34R. Nyakossi 3Noë Dussenne 5J. Lawrence
99D. Opoku 8S. Schrijvers 6W. George 27Óscar Gil
21W. Balikwisha 18Robin Mirisola 24Ł. Łakomy

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union St. Gilloise Absences are shown before kick-off
OH Leuven Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • OH Leuven+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Union St. Gilloise · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.67
Conceded
0.00
OH Leuven · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
0.33
Conceded
2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentUnion St. GilloiseOH Leuven
Charleroi W 3–2 A L 1–3 A
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 Union St. Gilloise wins1 draws0 OH Leuven wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.25 Over 2.550% Both scored25% Clean sheets75% · 25%
  • 24 Jan 2026OH Leuven0–0Union St. Gilloise
  • 3 Aug 2025Union St. Gilloise5–0OH Leuven
  • 2 Mar 2024OH Leuven0–2Union St. Gilloise
  • 12 Aug 2023Union St. Gilloise5–1OH Leuven

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union St. GilloiseOH LeuvenForecast
Scored per game 3.000.71
Conceded per game 0.431.86
Match goals 3.432.57 3.82
Over 1.5 86%86%
Over 2.5 71%57% 73%
Over 3.5 43%14%
Both teams scored 29%43% 47%
Clean sheets 71%14%
Failed to score 14%43%
Games77
Union St. GilloiseOH LeuvenForecast
Scored per game 2.900.80
Conceded per game 0.901.40
Match goals 3.802.20 3.82
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 80%40% 73%
Over 3.5 50%10%
Both teams scored 40%30% 47%
Clean sheets 60%30%
Failed to score 10%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union St. GilloiseOH LeuvenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.573.29
Corners conceded3.298.29
Match total8.8611.5810.06
Over 8.557% 4/771% 5/7
Over 9.543% 3/757% 4/7
Over 10.529% 2/757% 4/7
Cards
Cards2.002.00
Opponent cards1.711.71
Match total3.713.713.27
Over 3.543% 3/771% 5/7
Over 4.529% 2/729% 2/7
Union St. GilloiseOH LeuvenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.563.40
Corners conceded4.228.50
Match total8.7811.9010.06
Over 8.556% 5/970% 7/10
Over 9.544% 4/960% 6/10
Over 10.533% 3/960% 6/10
Cards
Cards2.501.50
Opponent cards1.801.50
Match total4.303.003.27
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.540% 4/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Nathan Verboomen 49 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.61league 3.07
Red cards0.29league 0.17
Cards 5+49%league 26%
Fouls22.5league 21.9
Penalties0.18league 0.25
Home wins45%league 48%
Union St. Gilloise7 with this referee
Record5-1-1 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.4 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • W2 Sep 26A · St. Truiden3–02
  • W1 Feb 26H · Club Brugge KV1–03
  • W20 Dec 25H · Zulte Waregem2–01
  • L30 Nov 25A · Anderlecht0–13
  • W21 Sep 25A · Genk2–14
OH Leuven7 with this referee
Record1-2-4 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.9 Pens for · against1 · 0
  • L7 Mar 26H · KVC Westerlo0–12
  • L13 Sep 25A · Zulte Waregem0–24
  • D27 Jul 25H · Charleroi2–22
  • L26 Nov 23H · Club Brugge KV0–14
  • L28 Oct 23A · Anderlecht1–51

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Union St. Gilloise6 games · scored 16 · conceded 3
1 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
4 46-60
2 61-75
4 76-90
OH Leuven7 games · scored 5 · conceded 13
1 0-15
1 2 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 5 76-90
Union St. Gilloise9 games · scored 24 · conceded 9
1 1 0-15
4 3 16-30
5 1 31-45
5 1 46-60
3 61-75
6 3 76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1 0-15
2 3 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
SK Beveren Lommel United 13 Cercle Brugge Anderlecht 12 RAAL La Louvière Club Brugge KV 14 Zulte Waregem Gent 02 Genk Kortrijk 30 Standard Liege Charleroi 01 Union St. Gilloise OH Leuven 11 KVC Westerlo Antwerp 51 KV Mechelen St. Truiden 43