Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Oct 26 · 18:15 Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels
Union St. Gilloise 1st · 26 pts · 11 played
2–0Full time
St. Truiden 7th · 18 pts · 11 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Union St. Gilloise were clear favourites.

Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 28). Union St. Gilloise had 8 days of rest, St. Truiden 7.1 and had to travel.

Rest days8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Union St. Gilloise61%
Draw23%
St. Truiden16%
Expected goals 1.94 – 0.91
Union St. Gilloise61%
Draw22%
St. Truiden16%
Expected goals 1.96 – 0.91
Union St. Gilloise61%
Draw23%
St. Truiden16%
Expected goals 1.94 – 0.91
Union St. Gilloise54%
Draw25%
St. Truiden21%
Expected goals 1.73 – 1.02
Union St. Gilloise61%
Draw22%
St. Truiden16%
Expected goals 1.96 – 0.91
Over 2.5 54% Both score 52% Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)

No weather data yet

RefereeBram Van Driessche
  • Cards per match 4.5
  • Penalties per match 0.16
  • Matches 31

Team strength

Union St. GilloiseSt. Truiden
56 L90 StrengthIn forecast 28
70 Current StrengthIn forecast 35
62 AttackIn forecast 37
74 DefenceIn forecast 32
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

St. Truiden

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union St. GilloiseSt. Truiden
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.55
0.55 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.27
1.92 xGVia Att/Def 1.51
0.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21
+0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.04
82% Scored inContext 82%
55% Clean sheetsContext 18%
14.91 ShotsContext 14.36
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.36
40% On target shareContext 30%
11.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.64
76% Box shareContext 68%
13% ConversionContext 11%
3.20 OffsidesContext 3.11
8.91 Shots allowedContext 10.82
3.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.18
2.09 BlocksContext 3.09
2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
79% Save rateContext 72%
54% PossessionIn forecast 52%
426 PassesContext 419
348 Accurate passesContext 339
82% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.02 Team ratingContext 6.88
12.82 FoulsContext 13.00
8.82 Fouls sufferedContext 11.64
2.09 Yellow cardsContext 1.55
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.09
This league season, per match · 11 and 11 games
1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.53
1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18
-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.13
60% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 20%
14.00 ShotsContext 14.40
4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30
35% On target shareContext 30%
10.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.50
73% Box shareContext 67%
9% ConversionContext 10%
3.33 OffsidesContext 3.11
10.30 Shots allowedContext 10.70
3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40
2.50 BlocksContext 2.60
2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20
65% Save rateContext 73%
47% PossessionIn forecast 52%
383 PassesContext 420
305 Accurate passesContext 341
80% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.86
13.00 FoulsContext 13.00
8.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union St. Gilloise
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
St. Truiden
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union St. Gilloise St. Truiden
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 18 Oct7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 19 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 20 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one5.97

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Union St. Gilloise Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
37K. Scherpen(G)
26R. Sykes 16C. Burgess 5K. Mac Allister
22O. Niang 17R. Schoofs 6K. Van de Perre 25A. Khalaili
10A. Ait El Hadj 20M. Giger
12P. David
St. Truiden Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata 5S. Taniguchi 20R. Van Helden 60R. Vanwesemael
8A. Sissako 6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui 9A. Ferrari 7A. Muja
42Keisuke Goto

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union St. Gilloise Absences are shown before kick-off
St. Truiden Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • St. Truiden+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Union St. Gilloise · Home 3.00points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
5-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
0.20
St. Truiden · Away 1.60points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
2-2-1
Scored
1.40
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 8 this season

OpponentUnion St. GilloiseSt. Truiden
Charleroi W 3–1 H D 1–1 A
Club Brugge KV L 0–1 A L 0–2 A
KVC Westerlo W 2–0 H L 0–3 H
Genk W 2–1 A L 1–2 H
Dender W 1–0 A W 2–0 H
Anderlecht W 2–0 H D 2–2 H
RAAL La Louvière D 0–0 A W 2–1 H
Gent W 3–2 A W 3–1 H
Points19 of 24 · 2.38 per game11 of 24 · 1.38 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Union St. Gilloise wins0 draws0 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 21 Jan 2024Union St. Gilloise2–1St. Truiden
  • 8 Oct 2023St. Truiden0–4Union St. Gilloise

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union St. GilloiseSt. TruidenForecast
Scored per game 2.001.55
Conceded per game 0.551.27
Match goals 2.552.82 2.85
Over 1.5 73%100%
Over 2.5 45%55% 54%
Over 3.5 27%27%
Both teams scored 36%64% 52%
Clean sheets 55%18%
Failed to score 18%18%
Games1111
Union St. GilloiseSt. TruidenForecast
Scored per game 2.101.40
Conceded per game 0.501.30
Match goals 2.602.70 2.85
Over 1.5 70%100%
Over 2.5 50%50% 54%
Over 3.5 30%20%
Both teams scored 30%60% 52%
Clean sheets 60%20%
Failed to score 20%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union St. GilloiseSt. TruidenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.556.20
Corners conceded4.003.70
Match total9.559.909.53
Over 8.564% 7/1170% 7/10
Over 9.564% 7/1160% 6/10
Over 10.545% 5/1150% 5/10
Cards
Cards2.091.64
Opponent cards2.272.18
Match total4.363.824.10
Over 3.564% 7/1145% 5/11
Over 4.564% 7/1118% 2/11
Union St. GilloiseSt. TruidenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.806.44
Corners conceded4.403.44
Match total9.209.889.53
Over 8.560% 6/1067% 6/9
Over 9.560% 6/1056% 5/9
Over 10.540% 4/1056% 5/9
Cards
Cards1.901.70
Opponent cards1.902.30
Match total3.804.004.10
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.560% 6/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bram Van Driessche 31 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.19league 3.84
Red cards0.29league 0.21
Cards 5+39%league 41%
Fouls22.2league 23.3
Penalties0.16league 0.27
Home wins48%league 41%
Union St. Gilloise5 with this referee
Record4-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.8 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1
  • W16 Aug 25H · Standard Liege3–01
  • D17 Mar 24A · Antwerp1–15
  • W3 Dec 23H · Cercle Brugge2–11
  • W24 Sep 23A · Cercle Brugge2–03
  • W28 Jul 23H · Anderlecht2–05
St. Truiden3 with this referee
Record0-0-3 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 2
  • L14 Sep 25H · KVC Westerlo0–31
  • L18 Feb 24A · Anderlecht1–41
  • L27 Aug 23H · Cercle Brugge0–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Union St. Gilloise11 games · scored 22 · conceded 6
4 0-15
3 16-30
2 31-45
4 1 46-60
6 61-75
5 3 76-90
St. Truiden11 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 3 46-60
2 2 61-75
8 2 76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
3 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
5 4 76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 3 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Charleroi Anderlecht 10 KVC Westerlo Dender 11 KV Mechelen OH Leuven 11 Gent Standard Liege 40 Antwerp Club Brugge KV 01 Cercle Brugge Zulte Waregem 11 Genk RAAL La Louvière 11 Union St. Gilloise St. Truiden 20