Union St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union St. Gilloise
1st · 38 pts · 18 played
DWLDD
First leg4–1
2–0Full time
Zulte Waregem
10th · 23 pts · 18 played
DDDDD
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were clear favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 28). Union St. Gilloise had 6.1 days of rest, Zulte Waregem 7.1 and had to travel 65 km.
Away travel65 kmRest days6.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Union St. Gilloise62%
Draw22%
Zulte Waregem16%
Union St. Gilloise62%
Draw22%
Zulte Waregem16%
Union St. Gilloise62%
Draw22%
Zulte Waregem16%
Union St. Gilloise54%
Draw25%
Zulte Waregem21%
Union St. Gilloise62%
Draw22%
Zulte Waregem16%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)
No weather data yet
RefereeNathan Verboomen
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.12
- Matches 34
Team strength
Union St. GilloiseZulte Waregem
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
66
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
62
AttackIn forecast
27
74
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisZulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union St. GilloiseZulte Waregem
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.39
0.61
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.39
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
0.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
83%
Scored inContext
78%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
15.00
ShotsContext
10.61
5.61
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.94
37%
On target shareContext
37%
11.88
Shots in the boxContext
7.63
76%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.73
8.61
Shots allowedContext
14.11
3.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.39
2.44
BlocksContext
3.71
2.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.06
78%
Save rateContext
70%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
435
PassesContext
388
357
Accurate passesContext
314
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.50
FoulsContext
11.33
8.83
Fouls sufferedContext
11.56
2.11
Yellow cardsContext
1.56
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.30
ShotsContext
10.00
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
34%
On target shareContext
38%
10.78
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
74%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
3.57
OffsidesContext
1.50
9.20
Shots allowedContext
13.40
3.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.90
BlocksContext
3.33
2.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
63%
Save rateContext
75%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
410
PassesContext
391
337
Accurate passesContext
314
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.96
12.40
FoulsContext
10.70
9.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union St. Gilloise
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Zulte Waregem
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel65 km178 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union St. Gilloise |
Zulte Waregem |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 65 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 99 km | 178 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 6.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
37K. Scherpen(G)
48F. Leysen
16C. Burgess
26R. Sykes
22O. Niang
4M. Rasmussen
6K. Van de Perre
25A. Khalaili
10A. Ait El Hadj
20M. Giger
12P. David
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
5Jakob Kiilerich
4L. Lemoine
6E. Lofolomo
17E. Soglo
8T. Claes
36S. Ujka
12W. Paugain
39M. Aké
18A. Ementa
24Jeppe Erenbjerg
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Union St. Gilloise · Home
2.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.25
Zulte Waregem · Away
1.22points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Union St. Gilloise | Zulte Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Gent | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A | W 4–1 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| St. Truiden | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Genk | W 2–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Dender | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Standard Liege | W 3–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| OH Leuven | W 5–0 H | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 35 of 51 · 2.06 per game | 23 of 51 · 1.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Union St. Gilloise wins0 draws0 Zulte Waregem wins
Goals per game4.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 1 Nov 2025Zulte Waregem1–4Union St. Gilloise
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union St. Gilloise | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 1.39 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.61 | 1.39 | |
| Match goals | 2.44 | 2.78 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 44% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 67% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 22% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Union St. Gilloise | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.60 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union St. Gilloise | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.41 | 4.12 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 6.29 | |
| Match total | 9.29 | 10.41 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 10/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 9/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 7/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.11 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 2.06 | |
| Match total | 4.28 | 3.73 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 11/18 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 61% 11/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Union St. Gilloise | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 6.11 | |
| Match total | 8.44 | 9.33 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.20 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nathan Verboomen 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 3.76
Red cards0.24league 0.18
Cards 5+53%league 41%
Fouls22.9league 22.9
Penalties0.12league 0.29
Home wins47%league 41%
Union St. Gilloise4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L30 Nov 25A · Anderlecht0–13
- W21 Sep 25A · Genk2–14
- D24 Aug 25A · RAAL La Louvière0–03
- W18 Feb 24A · Kortrijk3–11
Zulte Waregem1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 Sep 25H · OH Leuven2–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union St. Gilloise18 games · scored 33 · conceded 11
4
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
7
61-75
10
5
76-90
Zulte Waregem18 games · scored 25 · conceded 25
3
6
0-15
5
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
6
7
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1
3
0-15
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
