Utrecht vs Excelsior – 29 Jan 2027

Eredivisie Gameweek 21 Fri, Jan 29 · 19:00 Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht

Utrecht 11th · 11 pts · 9 played DWLWW

VS— Compare

Excelsior 10th · 11 pts · 9 played DLDLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel48 kmRest days5.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Utrecht—%

Draw—%

Excelsior—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Utrecht)

Forecast from 14 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Utrecht

Excelsior

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

32 AttackIn forecast 21

31 DefenceIn forecast 18

65 Form indexContext 11

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Utrecht

Attack—

Defense risk—

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Utrecht

Excelsior

1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.78

2.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.93

+0.47 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

89% Scored inContext 89%

0% Clean sheetsContext 22%

12.89 ShotsContext 10.78

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.78

34% On target shareContext 35%

10.25 Shots in the boxContext 8.25

69% Box shareContext 70%

14% ConversionContext 17%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.00

18.11 Shots allowedContext 15.67

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.22

4.33 BlocksContext 4.22

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

57% Save rateContext 64%

43% PossessionIn forecast 43%

391 PassesContext 390

313 Accurate passesContext 309

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.55 Team ratingContext 6.73

16.33 FoulsContext 11.56

10.67 Fouls sufferedContext 7.33

2.11 Yellow cardsContext 1.22

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

2.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.47

1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.89

+0.52 Goals minus xGContext +0.43

90% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.70 ShotsContext 11.30

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

33% On target shareContext 34%

10.67 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

68% Box shareContext 66%

14% ConversionContext 17%

1.83 OffsidesContext 1.00

17.60 Shots allowedContext 15.80

6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

4.10 BlocksContext 4.50

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

57% Save rateContext 65%

43% PossessionIn forecast 43%

388 PassesContext 389

312 Accurate passesContext 309

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.60 Team ratingContext 6.73

15.80 FoulsContext 11.80

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 7.60

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Utrecht DWLWW

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km131 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +4.2 vs expected

W18 OctA · Twente2–10.7 xPts
W11 OctH · Willem II3–12.1 xPts
L20 SepA · Feyenoord0–50.5 xPts
W13 SepA · Excelsior2–10.9 xPts
D8 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles3–31.6 xPts

Excelsior DLDLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel48 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -4.1 vs expected

L16 OctA · Heerenveen0–40.9 xPts
L11 OctH · Groningen1–51.7 xPts
D19 SepA · Ajax2–20.7 xPts
L13 SepH · Utrecht1–21.9 xPts
D8 SepA · NEC Nijmegen2–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Utrecht	Excelsior
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 24 Jan	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 22 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	48 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	131 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	15.9	15.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Utrecht Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Twente (A) 2–1, 18 Oct

22S. Padt(G)

5N. Panagiotou 3M. Didden 2S. Horemans

92A. Zagré 38O. Agougil 8J. van Overeem 23N. Vesterlund

11Ángel Alarcón 20D. de Wit 10Y. Cathline

Excelsior Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Heerenveen (A) 0–4, 16 Oct

1S. van Gassel(G)

15Simon Janssen 14J. Plug 4C. Widell 2E. da Silva Moreira

20L. Hartjes 3R. Meissen 8I. Yegoian

30Á. Þorsteinsson 19D. Garden 7Aymen Sliti

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Utrecht Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Excelsior Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Utrecht · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 3.50

Excelsior · Away 1.60points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-1
Scored: 2.20
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Utrecht	Excelsior
Willem II	W 3–1 H	W 3–0 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–6 H	L 1–2 H
Sparta Rotterdam	D 3–3 A	W 2–1 H
Groningen	L 1–2 A	L 1–5 H
Points	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game	6 of 12 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Utrecht wins2 draws1 Excelsior wins

Goals per game1.80 – 2.00 Over 2.580% Both scored80% Clean sheets0% · 20%

13 Sep 2026Excelsior1–2Utrecht
26 Apr 2026Excelsior5–0Utrecht
24 Aug 2025Utrecht4–1Excelsior
27 Jan 2024Excelsior1–1Utrecht
12 Nov 2023Utrecht2–2Excelsior

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Utrecht	Excelsior
Scored per game	1.78	1.78
Conceded per game	2.89	2.00
Match goals	4.67	3.78
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%
Over 3.5	67%	56%
Both teams scored	89%	67%
Clean sheets	0%	22%
Failed to score	11%	11%
Games	9	9

	Utrecht	Excelsior
Scored per game	1.80	1.90
Conceded per game	2.60	2.00
Match goals	4.40	3.90
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	90%	100%
Over 3.5	60%	60%
Both teams scored	80%	70%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Utrecht	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	4.25
Corners conceded	5.25	4.50
Match total	9.50	8.75	10.39
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.11	1.22
Opponent cards	0.89	0.78
Match total	3.00	2.00	2.77
Over 3.5	33% 3/9	11% 1/9
Over 4.5	22% 2/9	0% 0/9

	Utrecht	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	4.00
Corners conceded	5.33	4.56
Match total	10.00	8.56	10.39
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.10
Opponent cards	0.90	1.10
Match total	2.80	2.20	2.77
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.