Eredivisie Gameweek 21 Sun, Jan 31 · 15:45 Euroborg, Groningen
Groningen 7th · 14 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
NEC Nijmegen 12th · 10 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel161 kmRest days7.1 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Groningen—%
Draw—%
NEC Nijmegen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Groningen)

Forecast from 16 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Groningen and NEC Nijmegen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

GroningenNEC Nijmegen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
30 Current StrengthIn forecast 32
41 AttackIn forecast 37
21 DefenceIn forecast 33
44 Form indexContext 18
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Groningen

Attack—
Defense risk—

NEC Nijmegen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GroningenNEC Nijmegen
2.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67
2.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.78
1.87 xGVia Att/Def 2.16
2.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48
+0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.49
100% Scored inContext 89%
11% Clean sheetsContext 0%
14.78 ShotsContext 15.11
5.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22
39% On target shareContext 28%
10.38 Shots in the boxContext 9.78
65% Box shareContext 64%
17% ConversionContext 11%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.57
15.33 Shots allowedContext 11.56
5.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44
4.13 BlocksContext 3.11
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56
60% Save rateContext 58%
51% PossessionIn forecast 60%
434 PassesContext 488
355 Accurate passesContext 401
82% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.85 Team ratingContext 6.59
8.89 FoulsContext 11.33
11.11 Fouls sufferedContext 12.11
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20
1.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.94
2.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
+0.58 Goals minus xGContext -0.84
90% Scored inContext 70%
10% Clean sheetsContext 0%
13.80 ShotsContext 12.00
5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80
38% On target shareContext 32%
9.44 Shots in the boxContext 7.60
62% Box shareContext 59%
16% ConversionContext 9%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.43
15.00 Shots allowedContext 12.70
5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30
4.00 BlocksContext 2.80
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10
60% Save rateContext 59%
49% PossessionIn forecast 52%
425 PassesContext 442
345 Accurate passesContext 358
81% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.81 Team ratingContext 6.44
9.60 FoulsContext 11.70
11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Groningen
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km403 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 44 · 8 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Ajax2–51.4 xPts
  • W11 OctA · Excelsior5–11.1 xPts
  • W18 SepH · PEC Zwolle3–02.0 xPts
  • D12 SepA · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.1 xPts
  • D6 SepH · Twente2–21.1 xPts
NEC Nijmegen
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel161 km1,852 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Form 18 · 4 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
  • D18 OctH · Fortuna Sittard2–21.9 xPts
  • D15 OctH · Levski Sofia1–11.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Ajax1–10.7 xPts
  • D20 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.7 xPts
  • L17 SepA · Juventus0–50.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Groningen NEC Nijmegen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 28
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 24 Jan2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 28 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km161 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways403 km1,852 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 31 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one1414

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Groningen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Ajax (H) 2–5, 18 Oct
1E. Vaessen(G)
33H. Hateboer 5M. Rente 3T. Blokzijl 14J. Schreuders
24P. Clement 8T. de Jonge
11J. Ondrejka 26T. van Bergen 17D. van der Werff
9B. Willumsson
NEC Nijmegen Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Fortuna Sittard (H) 2–2, 18 Oct
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville 22A. Kaplan 21T. Storm
35Jamiro Monteiro 18D. Geiger 6D. Nejašmić 34Kevin Kers
99Clement Bischoff 20N. Lebreton
30B. Linssen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Groningen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
NEC Nijmegen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Groningen · Home 1.40points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
2-1-2
Scored
2.20
Conceded
2.20
NEC Nijmegen · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentGroningenNEC Nijmegen
Ajax L 2–5 H D 1–1 A
Excelsior W 5–1 A D 2–2 H
PEC Zwolle W 3–0 H W 3–1 A
GO Ahead Eagles D 1–1 A D 1–1 H
Fortuna Sittard L 2–3 H D 2–2 H
Points7 of 15 · 1.40 per game7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Groningen wins0 draws2 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.50 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%
  • 10 May 2026Groningen2–1NEC Nijmegen
  • 9 Nov 2025NEC Nijmegen2–0Groningen
  • 8 Feb 2025Groningen2–1NEC Nijmegen
  • 3 Nov 2024NEC Nijmegen6–0Groningen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

GroningenNEC NijmegenForecast
Scored per game 2.441.67
Conceded per game 2.111.78
Match goals 4.563.44
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 89%78%
Over 3.5 67%56%
Both teams scored 89%89%
Clean sheets 11%0%
Failed to score 0%11%
Games99
GroningenNEC NijmegenForecast
Scored per game 2.401.10
Conceded per game 2.002.20
Match goals 4.403.30
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 90%70%
Over 3.5 60%50%
Both teams scored 90%70%
Clean sheets 10%0%
Failed to score 0%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

GroningenNEC NijmegenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.894.88
Corners conceded4.563.75
Match total9.458.6310.39
Over 8.578% 7/950% 4/8
Over 9.556% 5/938% 3/8
Over 10.522% 2/938% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.001.33
Opponent cards1.441.78
Match total2.443.112.77
Over 3.511% 1/956% 5/9
Over 4.511% 1/90% 0/9
GroningenNEC NijmegenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.894.00
Corners conceded4.563.88
Match total9.457.8810.39
Over 8.578% 7/938% 3/8
Over 9.556% 5/925% 2/8
Over 10.522% 2/925% 2/8
Cards
Cards1.301.50
Opponent cards1.401.40
Match total2.702.902.77
Over 3.520% 2/1040% 4/10
Over 4.520% 2/100% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Groningen9 games · scored 22 · conceded 19
4 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
4 5 31-45
2 4 46-60
3 3 61-75
4 2 76-90
NEC Nijmegen9 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
3 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 2 76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 22 · conceded 21
4 3 0-15
5 3 16-30
4 5 31-45
2 5 46-60
3 3 61-75
4 2 76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
3 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
6 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 5 61-75
3 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Utrecht Excelsior Jan 2919:00 Sparta Rotterdam Telstar Jan 3015:30 ADO Den Haag GO Ahead Eagles Jan 3017:45 Willem II PSV Eindhoven Jan 3019:00 PEC Zwolle Fortuna Sittard Jan 3020:00 Heerenveen Ajax Jan 3111:15 AZ Alkmaar Feyenoord Jan 3113:30 Twente Cambuur Jan 3113:30 Groningen NEC Nijmegen Jan 3115:45