Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Utrecht were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Utrecht had 7 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 7.9 and had to travel 57 km.
Away travel57 kmRest days7 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Utrecht46%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen29%
Utrecht46%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen28%
Utrecht46%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen28%
Utrecht38%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen36%
Utrecht45%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen28%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 78
Team strength
Utrecht
NEC Nijmegen
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
32
AttackIn forecast
37
31
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtNEC Nijmegen
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.58
Goals minus xGContext
+0.93
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.80
ShotsContext
15.30
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.60
36%
On target shareContext
43%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
66%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
18%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.63
11.60
Shots allowedContext
10.50
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.25
BlocksContext
1.90
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
66%
Save rateContext
64%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
437
PassesContext
439
359
Accurate passesContext
354
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.96
Team ratingContext
7.00
10.90
FoulsContext
12.10
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.93
50%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.90
ShotsContext
15.30
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.60
31%
On target shareContext
43%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
60%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
18%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.63
11.60
Shots allowedContext
10.50
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.38
BlocksContext
1.90
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
65%
Save rateContext
64%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
431
PassesContext
439
350
Accurate passesContext
354
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.20
FoulsContext
12.10
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,121 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NEC Nijmegen
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel57 km153 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 57 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,121 km | 153 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
24N. Viergever
40M. Didden
2S. Horemans
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
20D. de Wit
15A. Blake
91S. Haller
22Miguel Rodríguez
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
4A. Kaplan
3P. Sandler
14E. Dasa
5T. Ouwejan
23K. Sano
6D. Nejašmić
25S. Ouaissa
30B. Linssen
10T. Chery
18K. Ogawa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- NEC Nijmegen+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
2.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 2.60
- Conceded
- 1.00
NEC Nijmegen · Away
1.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 2.20
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Utrecht | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–4 A | W 2–1 H |
| Heerenveen | D 2–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 0–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Excelsior | W 4–1 H | W 5–0 H |
| Heracles | W 4–0 H | W 4–1 A |
| Points | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Utrecht wins0 draws2 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 15 Mar 2025Utrecht0–1NEC Nijmegen
- 24 Nov 2024NEC Nijmegen1–2Utrecht
- 23 Sep 2023NEC Nijmegen3–0Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 2.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 4.60 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 90% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Utrecht | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 4.60 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 90% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.56 | 9.10 | 9.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 4.60 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Utrecht | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.78 | 9.10 | 9.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.60 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 78 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.13league 3.35
Red cards0.13league 0.19
Cards 5+45%league 33%
Fouls23.4league 22.1
Penalties0.29league 0.29
Home wins46%league 48%
Utrecht9 with this referee
Record2-5-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- D6 Apr 25A · GO Ahead Eagles2–24
- D15 Feb 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–22
- D4 Dec 24A · Ajax2–20
- W20 Oct 24A · Groningen1–04
- W11 Feb 24H · Fortuna Sittard4–00
NEC Nijmegen3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W11 May 25A · Ajax3–04
- D1 Feb 25H · PSV Eindhoven3–31
- D1 Sep 23A · Sparta Rotterdam1–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht10 games · scored 19 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
6
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 27 · conceded 19
3
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
5
46-60
6
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 27 · conceded 19
3
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
5
46-60
6
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
